矿工故意违章行为影响因素系统动力学仿真研究

为进一步探析矿工故意违章行为演化规律,在分析矿工故意违章行为影响因素基础上,基于系统动力学(SD)原理,构建矿工故意违章行为影响因素系统模型。运用Vensim软件仿真分析各因素对故意违章行为的动态影响,实现故意违章行为演化过程的动态模拟仿真。结果表明:工作倦怠和故意违章示范对矿工故意违章行为具有促进作用,安全领导和安全氛围对其具有抑制作用;各影响因素对矿工故意违章行为的作用在力度、起效时间和效用存续期方面均存在差异;在4个因素交互作用下,故意违章行为演化过程呈现出阶段性规律。     

三峡地区废弃地植被生态恢复与重建的生态学研究

废弃地是一类极度退化的生态系统。对三峡地区的矿山废弃地、退（弃）耕地、工程建设废弃地、垃圾填埋场、地质灾害废弃地、砍伐迹地等废弃地类型的形成原因进行了调查分析,并结合国内外恢复生态学的研究进展,讨论了该地区废弃地植被恢复与重建的一般规律,对该地区废弃地植被恢复与重建的对策及其方法与步骤提出了一些建议。认为人类干扰是该地区废弃地形成的主要原因。废弃地植被的恢复与重建应该遵循规划系统性、设计与施工生态性、目标植被的物种多样性等原则。而土壤基质的固定与恢复、先锋群落的构建、后期管理中生物多样性的逐步丰富是三峡地区废弃地植被生态恢复与重建过程中三个关键的步骤与内容。     

废弃采石场植被自然恢复过程中物种多样性变化特征

以浙江省舟山市的废弃采石场为例,在对植被情况进行调查的基础上,采用时空互代的方法,探讨废弃采石场植被自然恢复过程中物种多样性的变化规律. 结果表明:随着废弃地自然恢复年限的增加,植物种的组成发生较大变化,由单一的物种组成结构逐渐发展为复杂的物种组成结构,并逐渐趋于动态平衡. 在近50 a的自然恢复过程中,在样方中共出现20科40属42种植物,其中以禾本科和菊科为主. 在整个自然恢复过程中,群落物种多样性指数(H′,D)、丰富度指数(Ma,Pa)和均匀度指数(Jp,Ea)随植被恢复表现出由低至高而后又降低的变化趋势. 均匀度指数(Jp,Ea)在15～<25 a达到峰值,而多样性指数(H′,D)和丰富度指数(Ma,Pa)的峰值则出现在25～<40 a. 根据不同恢复年限群落物种种类的演替特征和物种多样性指数的变化规律,可大致将研究区废弃地植被自然恢复过程划分为初级演替期(<9 a)、初级交替期(9～<15 a)、高级交替期(15～<25 a)、高速恢复期(25～<40 a)以及恢复稳定期(40～50 a)5个演替阶段.      

Evolutionary diversity and spatiotemporal dynamics of a spatial game

In this paper, the evolution of cooperation is studied by a spatially structured evolutionary game model in which the players are located on a two-dimensional square lattice. Each player can choose one of the following strategies: “always defect” (ALLD), “tit-for-tat” (TFT), and “always cooperate” (ALLC). Players merely interact with four immediate neighbors at first and adjust strategies according to their rewards. First, the evolutionary dynamics of the three strategies in non-spatial population is investigated, and the results indicate that cooperation is not favored in most settings without spatial structure. Next, an analytical method, which is based on comparing the local payoff structures, is introduced for the spatial game model. Using the conditions derived from the method as criteria, the parameter plane for two major parameters of the spatial game model is divided and nine representative regions are identified. In each parameter region, a distinct spatiotemporal dynamics is characterized. The spatiotemporal dynamics not only verify that the spatial structure promote the evolution of cooperation but also reveal how cooperation is favored. Our results show that spatial structure is the keystone of the evolution of intraspecific diversity.     

A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.     

Modelling of spatio-temporal population dynamics of earthworms under wetland conditions—An integrated approach

Both the effects of earthworms on soils and the effects of soil conditions on earthworms have been studied with the help of experiments and modelling. This paper provides a model architecture allowing coupling both effects to a dynamic interaction in changing environmental conditions. We chose for a spatio-temporally explicit model and focussed on wetland conditions. Soil temperature and humidity have been modelled by means of finite volumes and were used to determine the spatial habitat suitability. The life cycles of earthworms have been modelled by Leslie matrices where soil humidity, soil temperature and population densities have been used to parametrize survival and transition probabilities. Earthworm dispersion has been described by a cellular automaton of the domain providing spatial population densities for both the life cycle submodel and the soil conditions submodel.     

A system dynamics model for the management of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) in the Bay of Arcachon (France)

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) is one of the mollusc species that, driven mainly by the shellfish market industry, has extended throughout the world, far beyond the limits of its original habitat. The Manila clam was introduced into France for aquaculture purposes, between 1972 and 1975. In France, this venerid culture became increasingly widespread and, since 1988, this species has colonised most of the embayments along the French Atlantic coast. In 2004, this development resulted in a fishery of ca. 520 t in Arcachon Bay.     

Quantifying the dynamics of marine invertebrate metacommunities: What processes can maintain high diversity with low densities in the Mediterranean Sea?

The Mediterranean Sea hosts 5.6% of the world benthic invertebrate species on 0.82% of the ocean surface. Mediterranean ecosystems are also characterized by low densities (and biomasses) compared to other oceanic ecosystems, a feature often attributed to their oligotrophic environment. Oligotrophic conditions can induce lower growth rates and higher mortality rates, and a stronger competition for food between individuals. A theoretical model was developed in order to study the diversity vs. density patterns in coastal benthic invertebrate species. This model describes their minimal population dynamics including basic processes (growth, mortality, reproduction and effects of competitive interactions between individuals) and incorporating fluxes of larvae (finally recruited as juveniles) between a mosaic of local habitats. Populations are therefore structured in a metacommunity. The connectivity between local communities is ensured by passive pelagic larval dispersal. In the Mediterranean Sea, because of the microtidal regime, the connectivity between coastal habitats is lower and more variable than in macrotidal basins. Mathematical properties of the model revealed that competitive interactions (intra- and interspecific competitions) have a stabilizing effect on interacting organisms when gains by recruitment are higher than losses by mortality. In addition, low mortality rates and low connectivity which decreases negative local interactions maintains high regional species diversity with low local densities. This property suggested that oligotrophy cannot be the only factor leading to the high diversity–low density pattern observed in the Mediterranean Sea.     

闽南山区连续年龄序列桉树人工林土壤养分动态

对闽南山区连续年龄序列(2 a、3 a、4 a、5 a、6 a)的尾巨桉(Eucalyptus urophyllaxE.grandis)人工林土壤有机碳及氮、磷、钾含量进行了分析,以评价土壤养分随林分年龄的变化动态.土壤有机碳、全氮、水解氮、全磷、速效磷均表现出随林分年龄增加而增加,到4 a生时达到最大,随后则呈下降趋势,6 a生时下降到最低值.速效钾含量则随林分年龄增加逐步下降,6 a生林分0～20 cm、20～40 cm和40～60 cm这3个土层速效钾含量分别比2 a生下降了53.2%、44.4%和55.2%;土壤全钾含量也表现出一定的下降趋势.所有年龄林分的土壤有机碳、全氮、水解氮、全磷、速效磷和速效钾含量均随土层深度增加而降低,而土壤伞钾则表现出相反的趋势.因此,在桉树人工林经营过程中,应定期增施钾肥,适时施用有机肥及氮、磷肥,以控制地力衰退.图4表2参24