基于灾害风险评估的山地城市固定避难场所布局优化研究——以东川区为例

研究以各区域灾害风险评估系数作为权重系数,对山地小城市各区域避难场所进行优化布局。首先,通过风险值=危险性*脆弱性/抗灾救灾能力机理表达式构建灾害风险评估指标体系,并以模糊综合评价法得出灾害风险评估数值,在此基础上通过多目标选址优化模型来构建山地城市避难场所的优化模型,其中灾害风险评估系数作为影响布局的权重因素纳入其中。最后,以东川区为研究对象,对其固定避难场所进行优化布局研究,结果表明:东川区城区固定避灾场所数量可在接近最优解的情况下达到效果最优。     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

Cancer and Non-Cancer Health Risk from Eating Cassava Grown in Some Mining Communities in Ghana

Food crops such as cassava, cocoyam and other tuber crops grown in mining communities uptake toxic or hazardous chemicals such as arsenic, and cadmium, from the soil. Cassava is a stable food for Ghanaians. This study evaluated human health risk from eating cassava grown in some mining communities in Ghana such as Bogoso, Prestea, Tarkwa and Tamso, which are important mining towns in the Western Region of Ghana. The study evaluated cancer and non-cancer health effects from eating cassava grown in the study areas in accordance with US Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment guidelines. The results of the study revealed the following: cancer health risk for Tamso, 0.098 (RME – Reasonable Maximum Exposure) and 0.082 (CTE – Central Tendency Exposure). This means that approximately 10 and 8 out of 100 resident adults are likely to suffer from cancer related cases by RME and CTE parameters respectively. For Prestea, we have 0.010 and 0.12, which also means that approximately 1 out of 100 and 10 resident adults out of 100 are also likely to suffer from cancer related diseases by RME and CTE parameters. The results of the study obtained were found to be above the acceptable cancer risk range of 1× 10⁻⁶ to 1× 10⁻⁴, i.e., 1 case of cancer out of 1 million or 100,000 people respectively.     

An evaluation scheme for assessing the effectiveness of intersection movement assist (IMA) on improving traffic safety

Objective: Intersection movement assist (IMA) has been recognized as one of the prominent countermeasures to reduce angle crashes at intersections, which constitute 22% of total crashes in the United States. Utilizing vehicle-based sensors, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications, IMA offers extended vision to provide early warning for an imminent crash. However, most of IMA-related research implements their methods and strategies only in simulations, test tracks, or driving simulator studies that have quite a few assumptions and limitations and hence the effectiveness evaluations reported may not be transferable or comparable.

Methods: This study seeks to develop a generalized evaluation scheme that can be used not only to assess the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety at intersections but to facilitate comparisons across similar studies. The proposed evaluation scheme utilizes the concepts of traffic conflict in terms of time-to-collision (TTC) as a crash surrogate. This approach avoids the issue of having insufficient crash frequency data for system evaluation. To measure the effectiveness of IMA on reducing traffic conflicts, a relative risk is calculated for comparing the risk of with/without using the IMA. As a proof-of-concept study, this study applied the proposed evaluation scheme and reported the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety in a field operation test (FOT). Seven test scenarios were conducted at 4 intersections, and a total of 40 participants were recruited to use the IMA for 6 months.

Results: It was estimated that IMA users have 26% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 5 s and have 15% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 4 s. However, the results vary across different sites and different definitions of conflicts in terms of TTC.

Conclusions: Overall, IMA is promising to effectively reduce angle crashes related to sight obstruction and has potential to reduce not only crash frequency but crash severity.     

The sex disparity in risky driving: A survey of Colombian young drivers

Objective: The overrepresentation of young drivers in poor road safety outcomes has long been recognized as a global road safety issue. In addition, the overrepresentation of males in crash statistics has been recognized as a pervasive young driver problem. Though progress in road safety evidenced as a stabilization and/or reduction in poor road safety outcomes has been made in developed nations, less-developed nations contribute the greatest road safety trauma, and developing nations such as Colombia continue to experience increasing trends in fatality rates. The aim of the research was to explore sex differences in self-reported risky driving behaviors of young drivers, including the associations with crash involvement, in a sample of young drivers attending university in Colombia.

Methods: The Spanish version of the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS-Sp) was applied in an online survey to a sample of 392 students (225 males) aged 16–24 years attending a major university. Appropriate comparative statistics and logistic regression modeling were used when analyzing the data.

Results: Males reported consistently more risky driving behaviors, with approximately one quarter of all participants reporting risky driving exposure. Males reported greater crash involvement, with violations such as speeding associated with crash involvement for both males and females.

Conclusion: Young drivers in Colombia appear to engage in the same risky driving behaviors as young drivers in developed nations. In addition, young male drivers in Colombia reported greater engagement in risky driving behaviors than young female drivers, a finding consistent with the behaviors of young male drivers in developed nations. As such, the research findings suggest that general interventions such as education, engineering, and enforcement should target transient rule violations such as speeding and using a handheld mobile phone while driving for young drivers in Colombia. Future research should investigate how these interventions could be tailored specifically for the Colombian cultural context, including how their effects can be evaluated, prior to implementation.     

Injury risk functions for frontal oblique collisions

Objective: The objective of this article was the construction of injury risk functions (IRFs) for front row occupants in oblique frontal crashes and a comparison to IRF of nonoblique frontal crashes from the same data set.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) were used as the basis for the construction of a logistic injury risk model. Static deformation, measured via displaced voxels on the postcrash vehicles, was used to calculate the energy dissipated in the crash. This measure of accident severity was termed objective equivalent speed (oEES) because it does not depend on the accident reconstruction and thus eliminates reconstruction biases like impact direction and vehicle model year. Imputation from property damage cases was used to describe underrepresented low-severity crashes―a known shortcoming of GIDAS. Binary logistic regression was used to relate the stimuli (oEES) to the binary outcome variable (injured or not injured).

Results: IRFs for the oblique frontal impact and nonoblique frontal impact were computed for the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ and 3+ levels for adults (18–64 years). For a given stimulus, the probability of injury for a belted driver was higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique frontal crashes. For the 25% injury risk at MAIS 2+ level, the corresponding stimulus for oblique crashes was 40 km/h but it was 64 km/h for nonoblique frontal crashes.

Conclusions: The risk of obtaining MAIS 2+ injuries is significantly higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique crashes. In the real world, most MAIS 2+ injuries occur in an oEES range from 30 to 60 km/h.     

生理因素对驾驶人行为及风险感知影响研究综述

为全面认识驾驶人行为及风险感知并分析行为成因,从驾驶人生理因素着手,从驾驶人视力、阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征和肌肉骨骼疾患3个方面梳理国内外驾驶人行为及风险感知的研究成果与研究不足。研究结果表明:驾驶人的生理疾病对其驾驶能力和危险感知存在显著影响;生理疾病严重程度与异常驾驶行为中的一般性失误、危险性失误行为之间具有显著正相关关系,疾病严重程度越高,出行失误行为的频率越高;之后可从理论和实验两方面着手,针对驾驶人的不同属性进行研究。     

平煤十矿底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采模拟研究

为了降低平煤十矿己15-16-24130工作面运输巷掘进中的突出危险性,基于实际工程背景,考虑瓦斯抽采中的瓦斯运移及煤岩变形等因素,建立了瓦斯抽采气固耦合模型,并利用COMSOL Multiphysics软件对平煤十矿己15-16煤层的底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行数值模拟,研究了瓦斯抽采对于降低掘进过程中突出危险性的影响。研究结果表明:在己18煤层开挖底板巷对己15-16煤层进行穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采,瓦斯抽采180 d后,己15-16-24130工作面运输巷附近煤层残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量分别降至0.315 MPa和3.84 m3/t;将底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行工程应用,实测抽采后的残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量在0.32 MPa和3.17 m3/t,均小于平煤十矿煤与瓦斯突出防治规定的“双6”指标（残余瓦斯压力小于0.6 MPa,残余瓦斯含量小于6 m3/t）,可有效降低运输巷掘进过程中的突出危险性。     

基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效,针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点,建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型;借助可靠性理论,通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点,将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化;提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中,而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小;若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a,VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时,建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。