中国洪水灾害风险区划及其成因分析

洪水灾害风险区划是洪水风险管理的基本依据.长期以来,受数据收集以及分辨率的影响,中国一直缺乏可以指导相关部门进行洪水风险控制及洪水保险的洪灾风险区划.本文利用地理信息系统软件的空间分析模块,基于高分辨率（90m）的全国降雨、地形坡度、河流湖泊缓冲区、人均GDP、人口密度、道路密度和耕地密度等影响水灾发生的风险因子图,采用水灾成因分析法和经验系数法,得到洪水的潜在危险区和经济易损区,进而得到中国洪水灾害风险区划.在此基础上,采用逐步回归法,逐步剔除各影响因子后,对引发洪灾的主要外在驱动力进行了分析.     

大坝风险研究综述

大坝风险分析将有效地提高和加强大坝安全及管理水平.本文简要地介绍了大坝风险分析的基本理论、方法以及目前的一些研究现状,这些内容包括：大坝风险分析的框架结构、风险估计方法、用于大坝风险评估的三种常见方法、基于风险概念的大坝决策、设计与管理.在介绍过程中就相关问题提出了作者的一些认识和看法.     

Governing the Borderlands: Decoding the Power of Aid

This article examines aid practice, that is, the public-private contractual networks that link donor governments, UN agencies, military establishments, NGOs, private companies and others, as a relation of global liberal governance. In order to fulfil this function, such networks embody what could be called the 'securitisation' of international assistance. Based upon ideas of human security and ameliorating the effects of poverty and vulnerability reduction, aid is now seen as playing a direct security role. Rather than being concerned with relations between states, the primary aim of this security paradigm is to modulate and change the behaviour of populations within them. In doing so, it is able to exploit the opportunities afforded by privatisation. At the same time, however, aid as security is confronted by its own particular problem of 'governing at a distance'; how can calculations made by leading states be transformed into actions at the global edge when a multitude of private and non-government implementors now intervene? The article concludes by examining the contribution of risk analysis to solving this problem and, especially, the development of new contractual regimes based around technical standardisation, benchmarking and performance auditing. Through such technologies, metropolitan states are learning how to manage the public-private networks of aid practice and, as a result, to govern the borderlands in new ways.     

三论灾害研究的理论与实践

在作者分别于 1991年发表的《论灾害研究的理论与实践》和 1996年发表的《再论灾害研究的理论与实践》的基础上 ,评述了最近 6年来灾害科学研究的进展 ,提出了灾害科学的基本框架 ,进一步完善了“区域灾害系统论”的理论体系 ,提出了当前灾害科学的主要学术前沿问题。文章并就资源开发与灾情形成机理与动态变化过程进行了综合分析 ,阐述了区域灾害的形成过程 ,进一步从区域可持续发展的角度 ,就建设安全社区 (区域 )提出了“允许灾害风险水平”的区域发展对策。     

中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析

中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达，人口最稠密的地区，同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海经9个沿海重点为例，通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理，提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模；利用Monte Carlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟，得到了极值风速序列，对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析，得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速，结果与实测风速比较吻合。     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Places and People: Rhetorical Constructions of “Community” in a Canadian Environmental Risk Assessment

This paper addresses the issue of public engagement in environmental risk contexts through a rhetorical analysis of the key term “community” in a risk assessment of mining-caused soil contamination. Drawing on Burke's concept of terministic screens and method of cluster criticism, the analysis shows the divergent constitutions of “community” in the Sudbury Soils Study's official discourse and the citizen-activist rhetoric of the Community Committee on the Sudbury Soils Study. Tracing the verbal and visual clusters within each organization's articulation of “community” as place and people reveals how the official Study's technical-regulatory ideology of environmental risk and citizen participation is countered by the Community Committee's contestatory environmental justice ideology. These competing views of “community” are mutually constitutive in that the official Study's mainstream risk discourse establishes the terms for the Community Committee's reactive counter-discourse, thus limiting citizen participation mainly to questions of “downstream” impacts. Our rhetorical analysis of “community” suggests a generative method for understanding the complex power relations animating specific risk communication contexts as well as for potentially reinventing “community” in terms more conducive to meaningful citizen engagement.     

The Voice of Science on Climate Change in the Mainstream Turkish Press

This study aims to explore how the Turkish press represents the discourse of climate change scientists. This is achieved by analyzing climate change-related articles that quote scientists, directly and indirectly, in two Turkish mainstream newspapers (N = 132, 7 years). The Turkish case illustrates how scientific rhetoric is used for presenting climate change as a matter of concern in an industrializing country. The analysis suggests that climate science is portrayed as an un-discussed authority. News articles rely on data about the disturbance of species and the state of the natural environment to provide proof of global warming, by which they produce an implicit moral imperative. The articles also portray the worst threats and challenges—those pertaining to human society—as residing mostly in the future. We conclude by discussing the implications of the use of a projected future to convey a discourse emphasizing the alarming risks associated with climate change.     

西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价

我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出.为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系.根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价.首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况.计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0 66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据.