基于扇区单元的航路交通流复杂度研究

空中交通航路交通流复杂度越来越高,威胁整个航路的正常运行,严重时甚至影响航空器的运行安全。为研究和解决扇区航路交通流复杂度较高的问题,了解了造成航路交通流复杂度较高的原因。基于航空器的基本运动学方程,列出了航空器运动过程中27种典型的飞行状态组合。考虑航空器的临近效应、速度差异和汇聚梯度3个影响航路交通流复杂度的主要因素,分别建立了相应的测量模型,从3个方面研究对航路交通流复杂度造成的影响,然后采用加权求和的方式求得三方面综合对航路交通流复杂度的影响程度。以雷达模拟机数据作为仿真验证对象,通过MATLAB软件对建立的模型进行了仿真验证     

基于SEM的双车道公路超车行为安全评价

为提高驾驶人在双车道公路上超车的安全性,基于tau理论适应性分析,提出超车过程中驾驶人不仅根据tau线索估计避碰时间,也利用距离、速度、加速度等判断超车是否安全的试验假设。招募12名受试者,应用驾驶模拟系统试验平台,依据试验假设采集12个与超车行为有关的驾驶行为数据,对其进行无量纲化处理,并利用Bootstrap法对数据进行扩增。结合驾驶行为问卷得分,利用AMOS软件,建立超车行为安全评价的结构方程模型。通过对初始假设模型进行多次修正与评价,得到影响超车行为安全的3个驾驶行为参数。结果表明,超车车辆在超车并道后的速度、与前导车之间的避碰时间及与对向车辆之间的避碰时间这3个驾驶行为参数可作为超车行为安全评价的有效指标。     

Driver speed selection on high-speed two-lane highways: Comparing speed profiles between uniform and differential speed limits

Objective: Although a considerable amount of prior research has investigated the impacts of speed limits on traffic safety and operations, much of this research, and nearly all of the research related to differential speed limits, has been specific to limited access freeways. The unique safety and operational issues on highways without access control create difficulty relating the conclusions from prior freeway-related speed limit research to 2-lane highways, particularly research on differential limits due to passing limitations and subsequent queuing. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess differences in driver speed selection with respect to the posted speed limit on rural 2-lane highways, with a particular emphasis on the differences between uniform and differential speed limits.

Methods: Data were collected from nearly 59,000 vehicles across 320 sites in Montana and 4 neighboring states. Differences in mean speeds, 85th percentile speeds, and the standard deviation in speeds for free-flowing vehicles were examined across these sites using ordinary least squares regression models.

Results: Ultimately, the results of the analysis show that the mean speed, 85th percentile speed, and variability in travel speeds for free-flowing vehicles on 2-lane highways are generally lower at locations with uniform 65 mph speed limits, compared to locations with differential limits of 70 mph for cars and 60 mph for trucks.

Conclusions: In addition to posted speed limits, several site characteristics were shown to influence speed selection including shoulder widths, frequency of horizontal curves, percentage of the segment that included no passing zones, and hourly volumes. Differences in vehicle speed characteristics were also observed between states, indicating that speed selection may also be influenced by local factors, such as driver population or enforcement.     

More time in the kitchen,less time on the streets: the micropolitics of cultivating an ethic of care in alternative food networks

There is increased attention to alternative food efforts as individuals and groups seek to build stronger local food infrastructures to increase accessibility, transparency, and fairness with how food is grown, produced, and distributed. In considering individuals and families contending with food injustices and insecurities; concerns and questions have surfaced about what it means to privilege the leadership and participation of these communities in alternative food efforts. While there are no linear answers to these questions, this paper explores how one statewide food network in the United States seeks to involve youth contending with the juvenile justice system in a job readiness programme, Youth Kitchen, that interfaces the youth with farmers, chef educators, community organisations, and farmers markets. This paper contends that integrating alternative food and juvenile justice work is a complex terrain that both advances social justice and reproduces existing power asymmetries within alternative food networks. The inclusion of accounts from multiple stakeholders in the local food and juvenile justice system generates a multilayered view that moves away from an either sustainability or social justice rubric to a more process-oriented lens that reveals the strategic dilemmas that alternative food networks encounter. On the one hand, the social landscape of this programme promotes an ethic of care and shared ownership between the staff and participating youth. At the same time, akin to many alternative food networks, neoliberal interests bump against this ethic of care and white privilege seeps into staffing patterns and everyday programmes in ways that reproduce the status quo.     

Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management

We describe a new effort to enhance climate forecast relevance and usability through the development of a system for evaluating and displaying real‐time subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts on a watershed scale. Water managers may not use climate forecasts to their full potential due to perceived low skill, mismatched spatial and temporal resolutions, or lack of knowledge or tools to ingest data. Most forecasts are disseminated as large‐domain maps or gridded datasets and may be systematically biased relative to watershed climatologies. Forecasts presented on a watershed scale allow water managers to view forecasts for their specific basins, thereby increasing the usability and relevance of climate forecasts. This paper describes the formulation of S2S climate forecast products based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME). Forecast products include bi‐weekly CFSv2 forecasts, and monthly and seasonal NMME forecasts. Precipitation and temperature forecasts are aggregated spatially to a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit code 4 (HUC‐4) watershed scale. Forecast verification reveals appreciable skill in the first two bi‐weekly periods (Weeks 1–2 and 2–3) from CFSv2, and usable skill in NMME Month 1 forecast with varying skills at longer lead times dependent on the season. Application of a bias‐correction technique (quantile mapping) eliminates forecast bias in the CFSv2 reforecasts, without adding significantly to correlation skill.     

我国海洋塑料垃圾和微塑料排放现状及对策

当前海洋塑料和微塑料污染问题是全球研究热点,随着我国陆源垃圾减量化处置率和生活污水处理覆盖率的提高,重新核算我国海洋塑料垃圾和微塑料排放量尤为重要,基于文献已报道的关于海洋塑料垃圾和微塑料排放量估算的方法并结合相关统计数据对我国相应排放量进行了核算.结果表明:2016年我国向海洋中排放塑料垃圾124×104~331×104 t,略低于2010年的132×104~353×104 t;生活污水处理厂向环境中排放塑料微珠约109.95×1012粒（折合131.78 t）,远低于2014年报道的209.7×1012粒（折合306.9 t）.此外,2016年我国生活污水处理厂向环境中排放合成化学纤维类微塑料约1 296.95×1012个（折合648.48 t）,轮胎与地面摩擦产生合成橡胶轮胎粉尘约78.85×104 t;合成化纤类微塑料和合成橡胶轮胎粉尘等已成为陆源微塑料的重要来源.通过与发达国家和地区在海洋垃圾和微塑料污染、陆源垃圾处置、海洋垃圾污染应对等方面进行比较,未来我国应通过完善"限塑令"和生活垃圾分类体系、尽早实施"塑料微珠"限令、明晰生活污水处理厂微塑料排放状况等手段从源头控制排放,此外需有效控制塑料垃圾和微塑料的输送途径,制定和完善相关法律法规和监测标准,提升我国应对海洋塑料垃圾和微塑料污染的能力和国际影响力.      

深度学习方法在上海市PM2.5浓度预报中的应用

为提升PM_2.5浓度预报能力,尤其是对PM_2.5重污染的预报能力,以中尺度气象-化学耦合模式系统（WRF-Chem）为基础,结合中尺度WRF气象预报数据、地面及高空气象观测数据、PM_2.5浓度观测数据,基于人工智能深度学习序列到序列的算法建立了上海市PM_2.5统计预报模型.结果表明,人工智能深度学习算法（Seq2seq）明显修正了WRF-Chem模式由于模型非客观性造成的偏差,提高了上海市PM_2.5浓度的预报能力;该算法优化和修正了WRF-Chem模式结果,并通过检验发现可以使PM_2.5浓度预报值与实况值间的相关系数由0.51上升至0.79,均方根误差由25.9μg/m³下降至15.01μg/m³.而单独使用套索法（Lasso）线性回归算法对WRF-Chem模式优化效果不理想.基于Seq2seq的PM_2.5浓度预报修正模型能够有效提升预报精度.     

“流空间”视域下淮海经济区城乡融合发展驱动机制

从要素流动多维重构淮海经济区城乡融合评价体系,以动态耦合协调度模型测度城乡融合水平并分析其时空分异规律,最后从“流空间”视角探索城乡融合发展驱动机制。结果表明：（1）研究区城乡融合水平整体较低但趋势向好,其正向空间关联和局域内向集聚特征明显。（2）流空间视角下区域呈多中心网络结构,且在人流和资金流下相对紧密,而物流和信息流下“核—辐”结构突出。（3）推动核心区集聚效应转向扩散效应,发挥各城市节点比较优势,合理调节要素流动强度、方向和质量,并在实施地方和国家政策时配套相关制度,方能实现淮海经济区城乡融合“量”“质”同升。     

资源跨区域流动视角下的承载力评价——一个动态评价框架及其应用

资源环境承载力是衡量区域资源基础条件、指导国土空间布局的重要依据。针对当前承载力评价中动态承载机制不够清晰、资源要素动态性评价不够充分等问题,从开放系统角度反思承载力的时空动态性,探索资源、环境、社会经济以及人口四个子系统间的关联耦合机制,讨论资源流动对资源流入地和流出地承载规模及承载质量的影响,构建了一个适用于县域资源环境承载力动态评价的理论框架,并将其应用于天津市武清区。实证结果表明：相较于静态评价,该框架下的动态承载力评价结果更贴近于地方资源环境支撑的真实情况,对于地方层面的国土空间规划决策和区域层面的资源空间优化具有一定支撑作用。     

Carbon reduction potential and cost evaluation of different mitigation approaches in China's coal to olefin Industry

Coal-based olefin (CTO) industry as a complement of traditional petrochemical industry plays vital role in China's national economic development. However, high CO₂ emission in CTO industry is one of the fatal problems to hinder its development. In this work, the carbon emission and mitigation potentials by different reduction pathways are evaluated. The economic cost is analyzed and compared as well. According to the industry development plan, the carbon emissions from China's CTO industry will attain 189.43 million ton CO₂ (MtCO₂) and 314.11 MtCO₂ in 2020 and 2030, respectively. With the advanced technology level, the maximal carbon mitigation potential could be attained to 15.3% and 21.9% in 2020 and 2030. If the other optional mitigation ways are combined together, the carbon emission could further reduce to some extent. In general, the order of mitigation potential is followed as: feedstock alteration by natural gas > CO₂ hydrogenation with renewable electricity applied > CCS technology. The mitigation cost analysis indicates that on the basis of 2015 situation, the economic penalty for feedstock alteration is the lowest, ranged between 186 and 451 CNY/tCO₂, and the cost from CCS technology is ranged between 404 and 562 CNY/tCO₂, which is acceptable if the CO₂ enhanced oil recovery and carbon tax are considered. However, for the CO₂ hydrogenation technology, the cost is extremely high and there is almost no application possibility at present.