USING CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT: ARIZONA AND THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO1

ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.     

Changes in the Carabid Fauna (Coleoptera, Carabidae) of Meadow Steppes during the Past Decades

Basic trends in the structural dynamics of the meadow-steppe carabid fauna over the period from 1970 to 1997 have been analyzed. Data on changes in the abundance and composition of dominant species are reported. Transformation of carabidocenoses is mainly accounted for by an increased humidity of the climate and the related mesophytization of forest–steppe ecosystems.     

Study of Cause-and-Effect Relationships in the Formation of Biocenoses: Their Use for the Control of Eutrophication

The cause-and-effect relationships existing in freshwater biogeocenoses and changing with time are conventionally divided into three groups: direct, directly mediated, and indirect. The possibility of using the indirect relationships for the control over natural systems is exemplified by a new scheme of eutrophication control and water quality improvement.     

Diversity of Ontogenetic Pathways in Plant Populations

Population heterogeneity in cespitose, fibrous-rooted, brevirhizomatous, stoloniferous, and tap-rooted herbaceous and woody plants is described. This heterogeneity is caused by the multivariant character of plant ontogeny (i.e., its dimensional, morphological, rhythmological, and temporal multiversality), which is regarded as the main adaptation mechanism operating in plant populations because it provides for the diversity of ontogenetic pathways under different ecological conditions.     

The Dynamics of Species Composition and Abundance of Wasps from the Families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae (Hymenoptera: Aculeata) in Successional Pine Biogeocenoses of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve

The data on the dynamics of population size and species composition of wasps from the families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae were obtained in the course of long-term studies carried out in successional pine forests of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve. The abundance and species diversity of wasps were significantly higher in a polewood forest (40 years) than in a young forest (20 years) and mature moss forest (70 years). In an overgrown ride in the moss pine forest, the composition of dominant wasp species remained relatively stable during the seven-year period of observations, although the number of species and their abundance varied significantly from year to year, depending on the weather.     

大渡河上游地区景观格局与动态

利用卫星遥感资料,对大渡河上游地区金川、壤塘、马尔康三县18665km²土地的景观格局与动态进行分析。结果显示,1995～2000年,研究地区的景观破碎化程度有所下降,多样性增加,斑块形状不规则性增强。整个景观表现出以草地为基质,以林地变动为主要特征。5年间,有林地面积减少53687hm²,大部分转变为灌木林地和疏林地。有林地的空间动态,如斑块密度下降,形状趋于规则等,显示该地区森林减少主要是有计划采伐的结果。耕地面积的下降则表明当地退耕还林、还草的政策措施已初见成效。     

结合态氚在作物生态系统中的形成动态

采用模拟污染物的同位素示踪技术研究了氚水在玉米、大豆和水稻中结合态氚形成的动态过程,并探讨了结合态氚形成的机理.结果表明,土壤(或水)中的氚水通过作物根系吸收进入作物体内,并在作物各部位形成结合态氚;作物体中结合态氚的比活度随时间呈增加趋势;作物籽粒中的结合态氚的比活度约为2～3Bq/g,玉米籽和稻谷中结合态氚的比活度高于其余部位,而大豆籽则与其他部位相当.对3种作物中结合态氚比活度的变化动态进行指数回归分析得:玉米、大豆和水稻中的比活度分别为C_m(t)=1.14(1-e^-0.0509t)、C_s(t)=1.65(^1-e-0.0595t)和C_r>(t)=1.29(^1-e-0.1027t),经方差分析表明,各拟合方程较好地反映了氚水在玉米、大豆和水稻中结合态氚形成的动态.     

Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform, triangular, and exponential random variables.     

九寨沟自然保护区4种水深梯度下芦苇分株地上生物量的分配与生长

芦苇是世界自然遗产--九寨沟自然保护区的一种重要的湿地植物.本文对该地区芦苇海4个不同水深梯度下芦苇的无性系地上分株的生物量分配、生长与繁殖策略进行了比较研究.结果表明,在47 cm (水在土层表面上)水深环境中,芦苇单株的平均生物量(4.2 g)最大.在-15 cm (水在土层表面下15 cm)的生境中,叶生物量百分比(叶生物量占单株总生物量的百分比, 46.1%)最大.芦苇地上分株高度、地上分株有分枝的单株百分比(茎上有分枝的分株占样地总分株的百分数)也存在明显的差别.茎的生物量分配百分比和生长速率随水深的增加而增加.在滩地生境中,开花率、花序的生物量百分比明显大于水较深的生境.分株株高与分株生物量、茎生物量与叶生物量都表现出较明显的幂指数异速生长规律.在-15 cm水深的生境中,叶生物量的生长快于茎的增长;在其他水深梯度的生境中,则是茎生物量的增加快于叶生物量的增加.