辽东湾海冰漂移的动力要素分析

利用辽东海JZ20－2海域冰期气象、水文和海冰的实测资料和海冰数值模拟结果，对海冰漂移过程中风和流的拖曳力、海冰内力、科氏力和海面倾斜力要素的基本特征进行了分析；采用海冰热力－动力模式对1999年2月3日6：50至2月5日6：50间辽东湾海冰进行了48h数值模拟，对并JZ20-2海域的海冰动力要素进行了对比分析。发现海冰内力、风和流的拖曳力为同一量级，海面倾斜力和科氏力明显较小，其均值的比例关系依次为14．7：18．8：32．6：1．5：1．0；海冰各动力要素相互影响，共同决定了海冰的漂移速度和运动轨迹。     

Carbon Management in Agricultural Soils

World soils have been a major source of enrichment of atmospheric concentration of CO₂ ever since the dawn of settled agriculture, about 10,000 years ago. Historic emission of soil C is estimated at 78 ± 12 Pg out of the total terrestrial emission of 136 ± 55 Pg, and post-industrial fossil fuel emission of 270 ± 30 Pg. Most soils in agricultural ecosystems have lost 50 to 75% of their antecedent soil C pool, with the magnitude of loss ranging from 30 to 60 Mg C/ha. The depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is exacerbated by soil drainage, plowing, removal of crop residue, biomass burning, subsistence or low-input agriculture, and soil degradation by erosion and other processes. The magnitude of soil C depletion is high in coarse-textured soils (e.g., sandy texture, excessive internal drainage, low activity clays and poor aggregation), prone to soil erosion and other degradative processes. Thus, most agricultural soils contain soil C pool below their ecological potential. Adoption of recommend management practices (e.g., no-till farming with crop residue mulch, incorporation of forages in the rotation cycle, maintaining a positive nutrient balance, use of manure and other biosolids), conversion of agriculturally marginal soils to a perennial land use, and restoration of degraded soils and wetlands can enhance the SOC pool. Cultivation of peatlands and harvesting of peatland moss must be strongly discouraged, and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems encouraged especially in developing countries. The rate of SOC sequestration is 300 to 500 Kg C/ha/yr under intensive agricultural practices, and 0.8 to 1.0 Mg/ha/yr through restoration of wetlands. In soils with severe depletion of SOC pool, the rate of SOC sequestration with adoption of restorative measures which add a considerable amount of biomass to the soil, and irrigated farming may be 1.0 to 1.5 Mg/ha/yr. Principal mechanisms of soil C sequestration include aggregation, high humification rate of biosolids applied to soil, deep transfer into the sub-soil horizons, formation of secondary carbonates and leaching of bicarbonates into the ground water. The rate of formation of secondary carbonates may be 10 to 15 Kg/ha/yr, and the rate of leaching of bicarbonates with good quality irrigation water may be 0.25 to 1.0 Mg C/ha/yr. The global potential of soil C sequestration is 0.6 to 1.2 Pg C/yr which can off-set about 15% of the fossil fuel emissions.     

车库内氢气扩散和分布状态的数值模拟

为研究车库内氢气连续性泄漏的浓度分布和聚集状态,采用ICEM-CFD软件建模,利用Fluent软件对氢气连续性泄漏过程进行了模拟。通过分析监测点氢气物质的量分数、氢气分布和可燃性区域体积分数,研究了横梁及其间距(L)、自然通风、通风口面积(A)对车库内氢气的扩散和分布状态的影响。结果表明:在密闭状态下,无横梁时可燃性区域最小,L=3 m时可燃性区域最大;当A=0.5 m2时,在自然通风的作用下,车库底部氢气物质的量分数明显下降,但车库中部和上部氢气物质的量分数与密闭时相近;当A=1 m2时,虽然初始阶段氢气物质的量分数上升很快,但很快就趋于稳定,监测点氢气物质的量分数均在爆炸下限以下,此时自然通风能够消除氢气爆炸的风险。     

民航维修人员习惯性违章行为的SD建模研究

掌握习惯性违章行为形成过程中的反馈机制和发展规律可以为消除习惯性违章行为提供理论依据。基于系统动力学(SD)理论,建立了民航机务维修人员习惯性违章行为的动态模型,利用VENSIM软件模拟仿真。结果表明,惩罚力度从第1等级(惩罚力度由小到大分别对应1~10等级)到第6等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次减小,从第6等级到第10等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次增加。此外习惯性违章行为活跃水平对工作单卡的合理程度敏感性最强,组织应优先提高工作单卡的合理程度。     

多模式发展的港口生态承载力演变

生态承载力是区域可持续发展的重要衡量标准,研究港口生态承载力状况并预测其演变趋势有利于港口生态可持续发展。针对现有港口生态承载力研究中生态过程机制、时间动态性考虑不足等问题,引入系统动力学理论,结合港口生态系统的特点,从社会经济、资源、环境3个方面进行因果反馈分析,在此基础上构建港口生态承载力的系统动力学模型。从港口生态供需关系的角度出发,引入生态承载力供需平衡指数,对港口生态承载力状况进行评价。以大连某港区为例,以GDP增长率、环保投资比重、单位吞吐量综合能耗、单位吞吐量水资源消耗量、单位吞吐量COD产生量、单位吞吐量SO_2产生量、单位吞吐量固废产生量作为调控变量,动态仿真自然发展模式、经济快速增长模式、协调发展模式和资源环境保护模式4种港口发展模式下2015—2030年港口生态承载力演变趋势。结果表明:能源消耗是制约该港区生态承载力改善的重要瓶颈,优化港口用能结构、加强港口能源管理有助于改善港口生态承载力;经济资源环境协调发展模式是实现港口生态系统可持续发展的最优模式。     

Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management

We describe a new effort to enhance climate forecast relevance and usability through the development of a system for evaluating and displaying real‐time subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts on a watershed scale. Water managers may not use climate forecasts to their full potential due to perceived low skill, mismatched spatial and temporal resolutions, or lack of knowledge or tools to ingest data. Most forecasts are disseminated as large‐domain maps or gridded datasets and may be systematically biased relative to watershed climatologies. Forecasts presented on a watershed scale allow water managers to view forecasts for their specific basins, thereby increasing the usability and relevance of climate forecasts. This paper describes the formulation of S2S climate forecast products based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME). Forecast products include bi‐weekly CFSv2 forecasts, and monthly and seasonal NMME forecasts. Precipitation and temperature forecasts are aggregated spatially to a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit code 4 (HUC‐4) watershed scale. Forecast verification reveals appreciable skill in the first two bi‐weekly periods (Weeks 1–2 and 2–3) from CFSv2, and usable skill in NMME Month 1 forecast with varying skills at longer lead times dependent on the season. Application of a bias‐correction technique (quantile mapping) eliminates forecast bias in the CFSv2 reforecasts, without adding significantly to correlation skill.     

太湖流域典型城镇地表水中AOX的污染特征

采用微库仑法,分析常州市武南区域地表水和污水处理厂出水中可吸附有机卤素（AOX）的浓度,揭示了该区域AOX的污染特征.结果表明,区域内地表水中AOX的年均浓度为41.9μg/L,与其他研究结果相当或偏低,夏季浓度高于冬季.从空间分布上看,永安河中段、滆湖北部和京杭运河以北区域污染相对严重,其中断头浜截流是造成AOX污染突出的一个重要原因.市政污水处理厂和纺织工业污水处理厂出水的年污染负荷较高,是两类重要的排放源,对地表水中AOX污染有较大的贡献.     

Seasonal variation and sources of derivatized phenols in atmospheric fine particulate matter in North China Plain

Qualitative and quantitative analyses of derivatized phenols in Beijing and in Xinglong were performed from 2016 to 2017 using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.The results showed substantially more severe pollution in Beijing.Of the 14 compounds detected,the total average concentration was 100 ng/m~3 in Beijing,compared with 11.6 ng/m~3 in Xinglong.More specifically,concentration of nitro-aromatic compounds(NACs)(81.9 ng/m~3 in Beijing and 8.49 ng/m3 in Xinglong) was the highest,followed by aromatic acids(14.6 ng/m~3 in Beijing and 2.42 ng/m~3 in Xinglong) and aromatic aldehydes(3.62 ng/m~3 in Beijing and 0.681 ng/m~3 in Xinglong).In terms of seasonal variation,the highest concentrations were found for 4-nitrocatechol in winter in Beijing(79.1±63.9 ng/m~3) and 4-nitrophenol in winter in Xinglong(9.72±8.94 ng/m~3).The analysis also revealed diurnal variations across different seasons.Most compounds presented higher concentrations at night in winter because of the decreased boundary layer height and increased heating intensity.While some presented higher levels during the day,which attributed to the photo-oxidation process for summer and more biomass burning activities for autumn.Higher concentrations appeared in winter and autumn than in spring and summer,which resulted from more coal combustions and adverse meteorological conditions.The significant correlations among NACs indicated similar sources of pollution.Higher correlations presented within each subgroup than those between the subgroups.Good correlations between levoglucosan and nitrophenols,nitrocatechols,nitro salicylic acids,with correlation coefficients(r) of 0.66,0.69 and 0.69,respectively,indicating an important role of biomass burning among primary sources.     

鼎湖山大气颗粒物中OC与EC的浓度特征及粒径分布

为了解华南背景区域鼎湖山站碳质气溶胶的浓度水平与来源,采用DRI Model 2001A热/光碳分析仪测定了鼎湖山站大气颗粒物分级样品中的有机碳(OC)与元素碳(EC)浓度水平,并分析了碳质组分的浓度特征和粒径分布.结果表明,在PM_(1.1)、 PM_(2.1)和PM_(9.0)中,鼎湖山OC的平均质量浓度分别为(5.6±2.0)、(7.3±2.4)和(12.8±4.0)μg·m~(-3), EC的平均质量浓度分别为(2.3±1.4)、(2.7±1.6)和(3.4±1.7)μg·m~(-3). PM_(1.1)和PM_(2.1)中OC分别占PM_(9.0)中OC的43.8%和57.0%, EC占67.6%和79.4%. OC和EC主要富集在细粒子中. PM_(1.1)和PM_(2.1)中OC和EC在秋季最高,OC在冬季最低,EC在夏季最低. PM_(9.0)中OC夏季最高.鼎湖山中碳质气溶胶以OC2、 EC1、 OC3和OC4为主,夏季OC3EC1,生物排放源增强,冬季EC1质量浓度最高,局地的机动车排放源更强.OC和EC在4个季节都呈现双峰型分布,细粒径段峰值位于0.43～0.65μm,粗粒径段峰值出现在3.3～5.8μm. PM_(1.1)和PM_(2.1)中OC以一次排放为主,二次有机碳(SOC)在春季最高[(3.0±1.4)μg·m~(-3)],冬季最低[(1.3±1.4)μg·m~(-3)],春季二次转化更强.鼎湖山大气细粒径段OC主要来自燃煤和机动车排放,粗粒径段主要来自生物源排放,EC主要受到燃煤、机动车排放和扬尘的影响.     

秸秆直接还田和炭化还田对红壤酸度、养分和交换性能的动态影响

为比较秸秆直接还田和炭化还田对亚热带典型红壤酸度、养分及交换性能的动态影响,试验以水稻和油菜秸秆为材料,设置7个盆栽处理:空白(CK)、水稻秸秆直接还田(R1B0)、水稻秸秆350℃炭化还田(R1B1)、水稻秸秆550℃炭化还田(R1B2)、油菜秸秆直接还田(R2B0)、油菜秸秆350℃炭化还田(R2B1)和油菜秸秆550℃炭化还田(R2B2),秸秆按1%和相应的生物质炭施入土壤,进行水稻培育试验.在水稻秧苗期、分蘖期、灌浆期和成熟期这4个时期采集土壤,分析土壤酸度、养分和交换性能的动态变化.结果表明,红壤pH、 NH~+_4-N和NO~-_3-N含量随生长期呈现减小的趋势,而有机质、CEC和各交换性盐基离子呈现增加的趋势.秸秆直接还田和炭化还田均提高土壤pH,降低交换性酸总量,同时提高有机质含量及交换性能,且作用效果随生长期增大.成熟期时秸秆炭化还田对各项指标的作用效果均好于秸秆直接还田,秸秆原料和炭化温度对各项土壤性质的影响不同,油菜秸秆生物质炭在提高土壤pH、有机质和CEC含量方面略好于水稻秸秆生物质炭.土壤酸度、养分含量和交换性能等因子的相关分析表明,土壤交换性酸与有机质呈极显著负相关关系(R=-0.912,P0.01),与CEC呈显著负相关关系(R=-0.866,P0.05),CEC和有机质呈显著正相关关系(R=0.833,P0.05),说明三者之间密切相关.研究表明,秸秆直接还田和炭化还田均可以达到改良土壤酸性和提高养分含量的效果,在等量秸秆情况下,秸秆炭化还田对阻控土壤酸化、提高有机质含量和CEC的效果比秸秆直接还田较为明显.