基于定位栏试验的奶牛粪便中雌激素含量特征

为探究奶牛粪便中雌激素含量特征,采用定位栏试验收集奶牛粪便样,采用超高效液相色谱串联(UPLC-MS/MS)法对粪便中4种天然雌激素(雌酮;17α-雌二醇,17β-雌二醇,雌三醇)和2种人工合成雌激素(17a-炔雌醇,己烯雌酚)的含量进行测定,结果表明:6种雌激素的检出率居于8.33％～98.89％之间,4种天然雌激素...     

Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).     

A simulation model to evaluate the impacts of invasive earthworms on soil carbon dynamics

Recent studies have reported that earthworm invasions alter native communities and impact nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We developed a simulation model to evaluate the potential impacts of earthworm invasions on carbon dynamics, taking into consideration earthworm feeding strategies and priming effects on the microorganisms through their casting activities. Responses of carbon stocks (forest litter, soil organic matter, microbial biomass and earthworm populations) and carbon fluxes (litter decomposition, earthworm consumption, and microbial respiration) were used to evaluate an earthworm invasion of a forest ecosystem. Data from a northern temperate forest (Arnot Forest, New York) were adapted for model calibration and evaluation. Simulation results suggest that the impact and outcome of earthworm invasions are affected by pre-invasion resource availability (litter and soil organic matter), invasive earthworm assemblages (particularly feeding strategy), and invasion history (associated with earthworm population dynamics). The abovementioned factors may also determine invasion progress of earthworm species. The accuracy of the model could be improved by the addition of environmental modules (e.g., soil water regimes), precise parameters accounting for individual species attributes under different environmental conditions (e.g. utilization ability of different types of food resources), as well as earthworm population dynamics (size and structure) and interactions with predators and other invasive/indigenous species during the invasion progress. Such an earthworm invasion model could provide valuable evaluation of the complicated responses of carbon dynamics to earthworm invasions in a range of forest ecosystems, particularly under global change scenarios.     

Choosing classes for size projection matrix models

Projection matrix models are intensely used in ecology to model the dynamics of structured populations. When dealing with size-structured populations, there is no satisfactory algorithm to partition size into discrete classes. We show that the Vandermeer-Moloney algorithm for choosing classes is inconsistent with the Usher model, and systematically selects the finest classes. Considering that the matrix model is a discrete approximation of a continuous model, we define an approximation error as the sum of a distribution error (the difference between the discrete distribution and its continuous counterpart), and a sample error. The optimal partition of size into classes is the one that minimizes the approximation error. This method for choosing classes also shows that the choice of the class width cannot be disconnected from the choice of the time step. When applied to 520 trees of Dicorynia guianensis in French Guiana, this algorithm identified 8 classes of 11.4 cm in width, which is in agreement with the empirical choice of foresters.     

城市环境影响模拟的系统动力学研究

城市化进程的加快已导致严重的环境问题。对城市环境影响的模拟研究是确定合理的城市发展规模和制定科学的发展规划的重要依据,以采取措施从源头控制环境质量的恶化。城市环境属于复合多动态系统,传统的一些方法可以实现城市环境影响的模拟预测,但参数调控方面的功能较不完善。文章将基于信息反馈控制理论的系统动力学引入城市环境影响模拟中,构建城市环境、社会、经济之间的系统动力学模型,通过调整环保投入、科技投入、经济增长速率以及单位能耗等系统变量,对武汉市未来发展的主要污染物（SO2、COD）排放量和主要资源消耗量（能源、水）等进行了四种情景动态模拟。结果表明：（1）系统动力学适合于研究复杂系统行为,具有较强的模拟和调控能力,同时可以避免繁琐的计算和信息成本高等缺点;（2）＂两型＂发展模式（Ⅳ）下的资源消耗量和污染物排放量明显低于其它3种情景,但仍处于较高的水平。武汉市污染物削减、生态环境保护任务依然繁重,开发新的替代能源、提高资源利用率仍是今后工作的重点。     

CHEMICAL CONSTITUENTS IN STORM FLOW VS. DRY WEATHER DISCHARGES IN CALIFORNIA STORM WATER CONVEYANCES1

ABSTRACT: This research evaluated concentration data for selected water quality parameters in selected California urban separate storm sewer systems during storm event discharges and during dry weather conditions. We used existing monitoring data from multiple regulatory agencies and municipalities originally collected for compliance or local characterization, which allowed systematic assessment of seasonal patterns over a wide region. Long term mean concentration for most parameters in most streams was higher during storm discharges than during dry weather flows to at least 95 percent confidence in 20 of 45 comparative evaluations, and lower statistical confidence in 22 other comparisons. Some regional differences emerged: in four evaluated streams in the San Francisco Bay Area, total concentration of lead, copper and zinc were lower during dry weather than during storm flows to at least 99.9 percent confidence, with only one exception; while the other four evaluated California streams showed the same tendency, but to much lower statistical confidence.     

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.     

贵阳市环境经济系统协调发展策略分析

环境与经济的协调发展已成为未来城市发展的必然要求,在西部大开发战略实施的当前形势下,如何实现贵阳市环境—经济系统协调发展是当地拟研究的一个重要问题。阐述了贵阳市环境经济系统的特征,在引入和结合系统动力学、情景分析和协调度分析三种方法的基础上,提出了贵阳市协调发展策略分析的研究框架。遵循框架中的思路和方法,构建了贵阳市环境经济系统仿真模拟模型,围绕GDP增长、资源消耗、环境污染、环保设施建设方面进行了5个情景的情景预测和协调度分析,通过反复模拟、反馈、调整及分析,识别出情景5为较理想的一种发展模式,总结提出了相应的基本策略方向。研究结果是贵阳市未来发展的科学参考和决策支持。     

Can Nutrient Spiralling be Used to Detect Seasonal Nutrient Uptake in a Forested Stream?

Nutrient spiralling measurements were conducted in Lyrebird Creek, a forested stream in the Dandenong Ranges, Victoria, Australia. Spiralling indices from several nutrient (, ) enrichment experiments were correlated with seasonal variation in factors thought to control nutrient uptake, i.e., temperature, light and algal biomass. It was hypothesized that nutrient uptake would be higher in summer as increased temperatures would promote both biotic and abiotic processes and higher light levels in summer would stimulate photosynthesis. However, results did not support this hypothesis. Uptake length for and and uptake velocity were not correlated with chlorophyll-a, light or temperature (r ² < 0.30, P > 0.1) despite the seasonality of these biophysical factors (r ² > 0.42, P < 0.02). Lyrebird Creek might had no seasonal trend in nutrient uptake and/or nutrient spiraling measurements only appears suitable for contrasting streams with large differences in biophysical factors that supports biotic and abiotic nutrient processing. In addition, small errors in measuring a nutrient concentration can result in a large range in the estimated S _w and increased difficulty in determining significant differences in nutrient spiralling indices.     

国土空间规划视角下流域水环境改善潜力——以长春市第二松花江流域为例

国土空间规划对新时期流域水环境保护意义重大。本文结合国土空间规划对流域水环境影响的全过程(污染产生—污染排放—污染入河)机制,构建了国土空间规划视角下流域水环境变化评估指标体系和框架。以长春市第二松花江流域为例,利用系统动力学模型和一维水动力模型QUAL2K量化了国土空间规划对流域水环境的影响。结果表明,到国土空间规划近期目标年(2025年),流域水环境状况良好,体现为流域大部分河段COD和NH₃-N达标,水环境容量最小为44.96 kg/d和5.10 kg/d。国土空间规划中的总量目标、环保设施建设和相关布局的实施将会使COD和NH₃-N污染产生量降低52.61%和14.16%;污染排放量降低26.45%和59.09%;水环境容量增加10.68%和57.17%。总体而言,国土空间规划对流域水环境改善潜力巨大,同时改善潜力因不同区域、污染源、污染物而异。本研究提出的评估框架为国土空间规划背景下流域水环境保护提供了思路。