Recovery of insular seabird populations years after rodent eradication

Seabirds have been particularly affected by invasive non-native species, which has led to the implementation of numerous eradication campaigns for the conservation of these keystone and highly vulnerable species. Although the benefits of eradication of invasive non-native species for seabird conservation have been demonstrated, the recovery kinetics of different seabird populations on islands after eradication remains poorly evaluated. We conducted long-term monitoring of the number of breeding pairs of seven seabird species on a small atoll, Surprise Island, New Caledonia (southwestern tropical Pacific). Marine avifauna of the island were surveyed yearly 4 years before to 4 years after rodent eradication (conducted in 2005), and we conducted multiple one-time surveys from ∼10 years before and ∼15 years after eradication. We sought to determine how different seabird species responded to the eradication of invasive rodents in an insular environment. Three species responded positively (two- to 10-fold increase in population size) to eradication with differences in lag time and sensitivity. The number of breeding pairs increased (effect sizes = 0.49–0.95 and 0.35–0.52) for two species over 4 years post-eradication due to immigration. One species had a longer (at least 5 years) response time than all others; breeding pairs increased for over 10 years after eradication. Long-term sampling was necessary to observe the responses of the seabird populations on the island because of the delayed response of a species to eradication not visible in the first years after eradication. Our results confirmed the positive effects of eradication of invasive non-native species on seabirds and emphasize the importance of mid- and long-term pre- and posteradication surveys to decipher the mechanisms of seabird recovery and confirm the benefits of eradication for conservation purposes.     

基于SD的装配式建筑施工安全监管演化博弈研究

为了有效减少装配式建筑工程施工安全事故,考虑政府监管部门与施工单位之间存在信息不对称,基于有限理性条件下双方互动关系构建装配式建筑施工安全动态监管演化博弈模型,并分析其稳定策略.采用系统动力学(SD)方法仿真分析在动态监管策略及外部变量调整条件下的演化博弈过程.研究结果表明:政府强弱监管的成本差、施工单位加强安全管理的...     

南京市大气颗粒物中水溶性离子的粒径分布和来源解析

为探讨南京市PM10、PM2.1和PM1.1中水溶性离子的季节变化和其主要来源,分别在南京市区和北郊进行了为期1 a的观测,得到了南京市城郊气溶胶的质量浓度和水溶性离子浓度并进行了来源解析.结果表明:①南京市区和北郊PM10、PM2.1、PM1.1颗粒物浓度顺序均为冬季>春季>秋季>夏季,春夏秋季节3种颗粒物浓度北郊高于市区,冬季相反.②检测的10种离子SO2-4、NO-3、Ca2+、NH+4、Cl-、K+、Na+、F-、NO-2、Mg2+总质量浓度为市区46μg·m-3,北郊39.6μg·m-3,对市区和北郊PM1.1、PM1.1~2.1、PM2.1~10的贡献率分别为56%、49.5%、20.4%和42.5%、37.9%、18.3%.③主要离子SO2-4、NO-3、NH+4、Ca2+浓度季节变化明显,在市区冬季高,夏季低,在北郊春季高,夏季低,南京地区季节性的气候变化和市郊两地的复杂下垫面和人为因素是影响离子浓度季节变化的主要原因.④NH+4、SO2-4、NO-3的前体物NH3、SO2、NOx的转化夏季主要来自汽车尾气,冬季汽车尾气和燃煤排放二者比重相近.Cl-在冬季主要来自工业排放,夏秋季和Na+一起主要来自海盐输送,Ca2+、Mg2+多为地面扬尘和建筑扬尘等地壳源,K+、F-、NO-2主要来自生物质燃烧和工业排放.     

煤炭企业安全投资保障机制及其系统动力学分析

针对我国目前煤炭企业安全投资保障中所面临的问题,构建了"多方制约、良性互动"的煤炭企业安全投资保障机制,并从该机制各方"互赢"和制约性出发,将政府的安全监察、煤炭行业协会的安全预防、保险公司的安全保险对煤炭企业安全投资的保障作用进行了分析。然后,根据系统动力学(SD)原理,对其动力学特点进行了系统分析和论证。在此基础上,建立了煤炭企业安全投资保障机制的SD模型,并寻求保证煤炭企业一定收益水平的安全投资水平,以改善和优化煤炭企业安全投资保障行为的机会和途径,为综合评价煤炭企业安全投资保障机制运行效果提供了一种思路。     

Regulation of reproduction by dominant workers in bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) queenright colonies

The mechanisms of regulating worker reproduction in bumblebees were studied by direct behavioral observations and by measuring ovarian development and juvenile hormone (JH) biosynthesis rates in workers under different social conditions. Workers in the last stage of Bombus terrestris colony development (the competition phase) had the lowest ovarian development and JH biosynthesis rates. Callows introduced into colonies immediately after queen removal (dequeened colonies) demonstrated a significant increase in ovarian development before, but not during, the competition phase. These findings differ from the higher ovarian development in colonies during the competition phase predicted by the prevailing hypothesis that worker reproduction starts in response to a decrease in queen inhibition. Reproduction of callows housed with dominant workers in small queenless groups was inhibited as in queenright colonies. This suggests that the reduced ovarian development and JH biosynthesis rates observed in dequeened and normally developing colonies during the competition phase also reflect inhibition by dominant workers. Thus, two distinct stages of inhibition of reproduction seem to exist: (1) before the competition phase, when the queen slows down worker ovarian development and prevents oviposition; (2) during the competition phase, when dominant workers inhibit ovarian development of other workers. Between these stages there seems to be a temporal “window” of enhanced worker reproductive development. The queen's typical switch to haploid egg production was not associated with changes in worker ovarian development or JH biosynthesis rates. These findings suggest that regulation of worker reproduction in B. terrestris is not determined by simple changes in the queen's inhibition capacity or by the sex of offspring and that the worker's role is more important than previously believed. Received: 18 March 1998 / Accepted after revision: 18 July 1998     

Reproduction versus work in queenless ants: when to join a hierarchy of hopeful reproductives?

Many animal societies contain few breeders and many helpers. In some species, individuals can become either helpers or breeders, and breeding is often restricted to high rankers in a dominance hierarchy. In social Hymenoptera with no morphological queen caste, all females have the potential to become dominant and reproduce. In our model, females involved in the hierarchy do not work and gain direct fitness if they become alpha following death of the current alpha, while females not in the hierarchy gain indirect fitness by working. Using an inclusive-fitness model combined with models of alpha replacement in slightly different types of near-linear hierarchies, we determined the critical rank (i.e., optimal hierarchy length) for which the gain in fitness by entering the hierarchy as a hopeful reproductive equals the cost caused by a reduced worker force. High relatedness decreases the hierarchy length by lowering the potential benefit of entering the hierarchy. In contrast, large colony size increases the hierarchy length because the cost of each non-working high ranker is relatively lower. The model predicts a hierarchy of five workers in the queenless ant Dinoponera quadriceps, close to empirical data which show that in a colony of about 100 females, the top 5 carry out 72.8% of the aggressive interactions. The model is also used to make several testable predictions about the effect on hierarchy length of (1) variation in colony size and (2) variation in worker reproductive options between species of the queenless ants genus Diacamma. Received: 16 March 1999 / Received in revised form: 30 June 1999 / Accepted: 11 July 1999     

On the integrated modelling of coastal changes

This paper introduces a possible approach to integrated modelling of coastal change, focusing on coastal land use and cover change. Some of the mostimportant open issues in the context of integrated modelling of coastal change are introduced. The paper focuses on methdological aspects. Specific reference is made to Physiographic Unit Modelling as an approach to better handle spatial variability and ‘morphogenesis’, and as a way to focus on coastal change mechanisms instead of absolute coastal dynamics for achieving an important simplification of the problem. The application is briefly discussed with reference to a ‘minimal model’. The methodological structure introduced is considered particularly suitable to represent, according to a variable degree of simplification, the integrative dynamics between resources and uses of the resources.     

FOG AND ACIDIFICATION IMPACTS ON ION BUDGETS OF BASINS IN NOVA SCOTIA,CANADA1

ABSTRACT: We examined hydrogeochemical records for a dozen watersheds in and near Kejimkujik National Park in southwestern Nova Scotia by relating stream ion concentrations and fluxes to atmospheric deposition, stream type (lake inlet versus outlet; brown versus clear water), and watershed type (catchment area, topography, soils, and dominant forest cover type). We found that fog and dry deposition make important contributions to S, N, Cl, H, Ca, Mg, K, and Na inputs into these watersheds. Seasalt chloride deposition from rain, snow, fog, and dry deposition equal total stream outputs on a region‐wide basis. Chloride outputs, however, differ among watersheds by a factor of about two, likely due to local differences in air flow and vegetational fog interception. We found that most of the incoming N is absorbed by the vegetation, as stream water NO3^‐ and NH4⁺ are very low. Our results also show that the vegetation and the soils absorb about half of the incoming SO4². In comparison with other North American watersheds with similar forest vegetation, Ca outputs are low, while Mg and K outputs are similar to other regions. Soil exchangeable Ca and soil cation exchange capacity are also very low. We found that first‐order forest streams with no upstream lakes have a distinct seasonal pattern that neither corresponds with the seasonal pattern of atmospheric deposition, nor with the seasonal pattern of downstream lake outlets.     

SDS对烟煤润湿性能和机理的分子模拟研究

为探究十二烷基硫酸钠(SDS)对烟煤的润湿机理,首先通过实验分析SDS对烟煤润湿性能影响,然后利用分子模拟对SDS在烟煤表面的润湿过程进行研究。研究结果表明：SDS溶液改善烟煤的润湿性能,全尘、呼吸性粉尘降尘效率分别比纯水提高7.95%和10%;根据轨道能级差和静电势分析得出,SDS分子尾链吸附烟煤表面、头基朝向水中的吸附构型降低水和烟煤的液-固界面张力;SDS分子覆盖烟煤表面后,系统中烟煤与水分子的非键作用能、氢键数量、水分子的起始位点分别由-1 114.91 kcal/mol, 1 810个,1.59?变为-3 405.68 kcal/mol, 1 996个,1.57?,在SDS分子的作用下烟煤表面与水分子结合能力变强,大量水分子通过氢键作用凝聚在头基附近,水分子整体移向烟煤使烟煤表面得到充分的浸润和渗透。研究结果可为新型表面活性剂润湿煤尘性能检验提供参考。     

土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控的系统动力学分析

土地资源优化配置及其环境效应已成为土地科学研究与保障国民经济持续健康发展的重要课题. 运用系统动力学方法,结合土壤质量调查评价,探讨江苏省无锡市区土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控问题. 结果表明:经济社会发展目标与模式在很大程度上决定着土地资源配置格局,并进一步影响到区域生态环境条件和土壤质量;在经济发展优先模式下,无锡市区建设用地扩张迅速,环境负荷加重,粮食产量降低,2030年的综合土壤质量指数比2005年下降1.50;在生态保护优先模式下,无锡市区土地资源的人口承载压力趋缓,建设用地占用耕地现象得到有效控制,粮食产量较稳定,2030年的综合土壤质量指数仅比2005年下降0.57;未来土地资源配置格局应该以生态保护和提高土地资源配置的综合效益为调控重点.