A comparative assessment of waste incinerators in the UK

The uptake in Europe of Energy from Waste (EfW) incinerator plants has increased rapidly in recent years. In the UK, 25 municipal waste incinerators with energy recovery are now in operation; however, their waste supply chains and business practices vary significantly. With over a hundred more plant developments being considered it is important to establish best business practices for ensuring efficient environmental and operational performance. By reviewing the 25 plants we identify four suitable case study plants to compare technologies (moving grate, fluidised bed and rotary kiln), plant economics and operations. Using data collected from annual reports and through interviews and site visits we provide recommendations for improving the supply chain for waste incinerators and highlight the current issues and challenges faced by the industry. We find that plants using moving grate have a high availability of 87–92%. However, compared to the fluidised bed and rotary kiln, quantities of bottom ash and emissions of hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide are high. The uptake of integrated recycling practices, combined heat and power, and post incineration non-ferrous metal collections needs to be increased among EfW incinerators in the UK. We conclude that one of the major difficulties encountered by waste facilities is the appropriate selection of technology, capacity, site, waste suppliers and heat consumers. This study will be of particular value to EfW plant developers, government authorities and researchers working within the sector of waste management.     

基于灰色-马尔科夫模型的我国能源消费结构优化调整

本文以我国1997—2010年的消费结构数据为基础,运用灰色-马尔科夫链模型对数据进行了分析和预测,然后通过MATLAB预测了我国未来十年的能源消费结构,结合我国政府承诺的非化石能源目标对模型预测结果做了进一步的修正,最后根据能源发展趋势给出了能源消费结构的优化策略。     

地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.     

Estimation of Normal Variance Based on Balanced and Unbalanced Ranked Set Samples

In this paper we address the problem of estimation of the variance of a normal population based on a balanced as well as an unbalanced ranked set sample (RSS), which is a modification of the original RSS of McIntyre (1952).We have proposed several methods of estimation of variance by combining different unbiased between and within estimators, and compared their performances     

pp´DDT and pp´DDE Accumulation in a Food Chain of Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy): Testing Steady-State Condition

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.010 Background, Aims and Scope Although pp'DDT usage was strongly limited or banned in most parts of the world during the last three or four decades, the parent compound, its homologues and their metabolites still occur at levels which might pose a risk for many ecosystem components. A case of DDT pollution of industrial origin was discovered in 1996 in Lake Maggiore, the second largest (212 km2) and deepest (370 m) lake in Italy, causing concern for wildlife and human health. The extensive monitoring of many biotic and abiotic compartments which followed from 1998 in order to assess the pollution level and its trend in time, provided a great availability of data referring to DDT contamination of the different fish species of the lake. In this study, the recent contamination levels in selected fish species were compared to those measured in 1998 to evaluate the temporal pollution trend of the lake and its natural recovery, given that no remediation measures were carried out on the contaminated soils and sediments in this time span. Moreover, a modelling approach to test the equilibrium condition between water and pelagic fish species was used. Analytical results of pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in lake water were used as input data in the bioenergetic model by Connolly & Pedersen (1988) to calculate concentrations in two fish species and to compare the predicted and the measured contamination. Methods Sampling and analytical determination of DDT homologues in lake water: Five water sampling campaigns were carried out from May 2002 to February 2004 in three sampling sites of Lake Maggiore. Suspended and dissolved pollutants were determined separately. Quantitative DDT homologue analyses were performed by HRGC coupled with ECD detection by the external standard method. Single water extracts were put together in correspondence with the stratification zones of the water column inferred on the basis of the temperature profile to improve analytical sensitivity. Selection of fish data: Concentrations of DDT and DDE in fishes were selected from recent literature (CIPAIS 2003, 2004). Bioaccumulation model: The bioenergetic model proposed by Connolly & Pedersen (1988) was used to assess the bioaccumulation of pp'DDT and pp'DDE of Alosa fallax (landlocked shad) and Coregonus spp. (whitefish), selected among the different species as representative of a secondary consumer level. Results and Discussion The average concentrations of pp'DDT and pp'DDE in water to be used as input data in the bioenergetic model were obtained considering all the concentrations measured at the three sampling stations in the epylimnion where the fish species considered in this study spend most of their life. The resulting values were 0.05 and 0.16 ng/L for pp'DDT and pp'DDE, respectively. Average measured pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in landlocked shad were 0.81 +/- 0.39 and 1.69 +/- 0.71 mg/kg lipids, respectively, and were 0.29 +/- 0.12 and 1.06 +/- 0.41 mg/kg lipids for the whitefish. Calculated and measured values turned out to be in quite good agreement for pp'DDT, while measured pp'DDE concentrations were higher than expected on the basis of the bioenergetic model in both species. Probably metabolic transformations of pp'DDT accumulated in fish tissues in the past are responsible for the observed differences between calculated and expected pp'DDE concentrations in fish. Conclusions Pelagic fishes of Lake Maggiore seem to maintain the DDT accumulated during their life time and the most efficient mechanism responsible for the fish population recoveries is probably their generation changes; for this reason, equilibrium models cannot be used until negligible pp'DDT concentrations are reached in fish tissues. Recommendations and Outlook The limit proposed for pp'DDT in water by the EU Directive 2000/60, which will come in force in 2008, is 0.2 ng/L, four times higher than the average concentration measured in Lake Maggiore waters. Nevertheless, concentrations measured in Lake Maggiore fish were very close and sometimes exceeded the Maximum residue limits (MRLs) settled by the Italian legislation for foods (0.1 mg/kg w.w. for fish containing 5–20% lipid). It seems, therefore, that the 'environmental quality standard' of 0.2 ng/L cannot guarantee the suitability of fish for human consumption.     

系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

等离子体脱硫运行参数分析

利用介质阻挡强电离放电产生非平衡等离子体,进行模拟烟气脱硫。通过一次回归正交设计,对影响非平衡等离子体脱硫效率的因素进行了分析,建立了多元线性回归模型,分析了因子的主次,并得到了实验指标和各因子之间的定量规律。通过对模型的优化,获得了使脱硫率较高的各因素的最优组合。     

中国旅游业绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响机理

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展理念的重要组成部分,是旅游业奉行以人为本、生态至上和全面发展的新价值观。在梳理旅游业绿色发展概念及内涵基础上,构建旅游业绿色发展效率评价体系,运用SBM-Undersirable模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,探讨2008—2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）旅游业绿色发展效率（TGDE）时空演化特征及影响机理。研究发现：（1）时间和空间变化方面,TGDE总体处于中等偏下水平,时间上呈“W”型变化形态,“下降—上升—调整”阶段特征显著;空间呈“东—中—西”递减分布,内部差异为西部地区>东部地区>中部地区,低、中、高效率由“金字塔”向“菱形”结构转变,高效率地区集中于东部沿海,中等效率多分布于中西部地区,低效率位于胡焕庸线两侧。（2）动态演进方面,TGDE始终存在两极分化现象,但区域协调性逐步增强,具有较强平稳性,难以实现跨越式发展,空间向上转移省份比较集中,以中西部为主,向下调整省份较少,且存在明显的空间溢出效应,溢出影响具有不对称性。（3）影响机理方面,总体上,经济水平、产业结构、政府规制、教育水平和旅游资源影响因子与TGDE间存在显著的正向关系,对外开放程度的作用不显著,但各因子的影响程度、作用机理及条件具有较强地域性。