基于ARIMA-MC模型钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量预测

为了预测钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量,本文用ARIMA模型及马尔科夫链建立了ARIMA-MC模型对高炉煤气的发生量进行预测。结合某钢铁企业实际的原始数据,通过实验,随机抽取多组测试结果中的两组,1#和2#各30个点进行预测,结果表明预测平均相对误差分别为2.27%、3.03%。实验结果证明新算法的有效性。     

煤矿事故预测的马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c模型的建立与应用

煤矿安全是煤矿生产的重要保障,煤矿事故预测是煤矿安全评价和决策的基础。结合灰色SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型和马尔可夫链理论的优点,根据煤矿生产的特殊条件,提出了基于马尔可夫链的SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型。首先利用灰色SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型对我国1990—2010年的煤矿事故百万t死亡率进行初次预测,然后根据初次预测结果,利用残差模型对SCGM(1,1)_c模型预测结果进行修正。最后在修正模型的基础上,运用马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)_c模型对我国2011—2013年煤矿事故百万t死亡率进行了预测,并对两种模型的预测误差进行了对比分析。结果表明,马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型既能揭示煤矿事故百万t死亡率变化的总体趋势,又能克服随机波动性数据对预测精度的影响,具有较强的工程实用性。     

Markov灰色残差GM(1,1)模型在滇池观音山断面水质预测中的应用研究

选用2005年-2014年观音山断面水质自动监测资料,利用灰色残差修正GM(1,1)模型对滇池观音山断面pH、DO、CODMn、NH3-N 4个指标2015年、2016年浓度进行预测.结果表明:传统的GM(1,1)模型存在较大预测误差;pH和DO浓度的预测可使用GM(1,1)一次残差修正模型;CODMn和NH3-N浓度的预测可使用GM(1,1)二次残差修正模型.预测2015年观音山断面pH、DO、CODMn、NH3-N年平均浓度分别为8.89、7.96 mg/L、8.9 mg/L、0.31 mg/L;2016年观音山断面pH、DO、CODMn、NH3-N年平均浓度分别为8.92、7.89 mg/L、9.17 mg/L、0.34 mg/L.     

关于中国在用汽车排污控制的若干问题--柴油车部分

文章结合《点燃式发动机汽车排气污染物排放限值及测量方法（双怠速法及简易工况法）》（GB18285—2005）修订中的重大问题阐述中国在用汽油车排气烟度控制方面的新要求。主要包括：增加高怠速排污检测、对电喷汽车增加过量空气系数（λ）的限定、新规定了国1以来的在用汽油车双怠速排放限值、双燃料车要对两种燃料分别检测、对简易工况检测法作了规定、制定简易工况检测法排放限值的基本原则和方法、供地方参考的排放限值等。     

简易柱式无土栽培法

在立柱栽培技术发展过程中 ,简易柱式法最先是在 1994～ 1995年初发展起来的 ,并在当年推广到江苏张家港市和河北遵化市 ,后来在此基础上发展了现被广泛推广应用的标准型柱式无土栽培法[1～ 3] ,但该方法中的盆钵是由高强度抗老化的ＡＢＳ工程塑料铸塑而成 ,价格贵 ,安装 1亩 ( 6 6 6 .7ｍ2 )约需6万元人民币 ,在中小城市及农村推广使用不易 ,因此简易柱式无土栽培技术的优点值得重视 ,讨论如下 :1　简易立柱的组装简易柱是由包裹材料柱壁、柱体和栽培基质构成 .柱壁是新制丙烯 (ｐｏｌｙｐｒｏｐｙｒｅｎｅ)编织材料 (俗称“蛇皮”带 ) ,裁…     

Analyzing spatial count data,with an application to weed counts

Count data on a lattice may arise in observational studies of ecological phenomena. In this paper a hierarchical spatial model is used to analyze weed counts. Anisotropy is introduced, and a bivariate extension of the model is presented.     

Accounting for geophysical information in geostatistical characterization of unexploded ordnance (UXO) sites

Efficient and reliable unexploded ordnance (UXO) site characterization is needed for decisions regarding future land use. There are several types of data available at UXO sites and geophysical signal maps are one of the most valuable sources of information. Incorporation of such information into site characterization requires a flexible and reliable methodology. Geostatistics allows one to account for exhaustive secondary information (i.e.,, known at every location within the field) in many different ways. Kriging and logistic regression were combined to map the probability of occurrence of at least one geophysical anomaly of interest, such as UXO, from a limited number of indicator data. Logistic regression is used to derive the trend from a geophysical signal map, and kriged residuals are added to the trend to estimate the probabilities of the presence of UXO at unsampled locations (simple kriging with varying local means or SKlm). Each location is identified for further remedial action if the estimated probability is greater than a given threshold. The technique is illustrated using a hypothetical UXO site generated by a UXO simulator, and a corresponding geophysical signal map. Indicator data are collected along two transects located within the site. Classification performances are then assessed by computing proportions of correct classification, false positive, false negative, and Kappa statistics. Two common approaches, one of which does not take any secondary information into account (ordinary indicator kriging) and a variant of common cokriging (collocated cokriging), were used for comparison purposes. Results indicate that accounting for exhaustive secondary information improves the overall characterization of UXO sites if an appropriate methodology, SKlm in this case, is used.     

简易瞬态工况下汽油车挥发性有机物在线排放特征研究

机动车是大气挥发性有机物（VOCs）的重要排放源之一,识别其高分辨率排放特征对于VOCs污染控制具有重要意义.针对现有研究对不同行驶状态下机动车VOCs排放特征精细化描述较为缺乏这一问题,本研究构建了在线与离线相结合的VOCs测量系统,采用底盘测功机运行的简易瞬态工况（VMAS）,对广州市36辆不同排放标准的汽油车尾气VOCs高分辨率排放特征开展在线测量.实时观测结果发现,随着国标加严,VOCs排放至少下降2个数量级.庚烷、丁烯、甲苯、甲醛和甲醇为各类VOCs的特征组分,各组分间的相关系数普遍在0.90~0.97之间.然而,随着国标加严,组分间的相关系数下降到0.20~0.94,醇类与其它组分出现负相关或无相关性.VOCs排放分布集中于变速阶段,高于怠速和匀速阶段所占的比重,其中,甲醛、乙醛和丙酮等含氧挥发性有机物（OVOCs）在不同变速阶段维持较高且稳定的排放.这说明在城市地区降低机动车VOCs排放,长期任务是减少因拥堵或其它因素造成的频繁启动和变速,尽可能确保行驶畅通.本研究在线与离线测试所识别的VOCs组分比对结果一致性较高,在线仪器的使用较好地弥补了离线测试识别VOCs实时排放特征的局限性.     

适于旧电厂脱硫改造的石灰石-石膏简易湿法脱硫工艺

综合近年来旧电厂小机组脱硫改造有场地小、投资低、上马快、运营稳定的需要,笔者推荐一种优化的新型石灰石-石膏简易湿法脱硫工艺,该工艺在工艺流程、设备配置上都进行了精简,适应燃煤小机组脱硫。     

Modelling farm structural change for integrated ex-ante assessment: review of methods and determinants

This paper provides a literature review of methods and determinants relevant for modelling farm structural change within an integrated modelling chain. Environmental and economic impacts at farm level and individual farm responses to agricultural and agri-environmental policies strongly depend on characteristics like farm size, specialisation, and production intensity. Consequently, up-scaling results of corresponding farm type models in ex-ante assessment exercises requires comprehensive and valid predictions of the farm types’ future relevance under different scenarios. The paper reviews methods relevant to forecasting farm numbers in classes defined by farm typologies with the objective to identify (1) a preferable modelling approach and (2) empirically relevant determinants. Despite the literature's considerable size, even recent studies are rather limited in scope and typically restricted to a subset of farm types and one or very few regions. With regard to data availability, computational complexity and statistical validation procedures, Markov chain models are identified as the only generally suitable method for a broadly scoped modelling approach across European regions and a differentiated farm typology. However, other research on determinants of farm growth, the number of farm holders, farm succession as well as new multi-agent based simulation approaches hint at relevant explanatory variables previously not considered in Markov chain analyses. Their impact seems testable in more ambitious cross-regional and cross-farm type setups.