基于过程模拟的地下水污染风险评价方法研究

通过对简易垃圾填埋场污染地下水过程的系统分析,提出了以抽水井作为保护目标进行地下水污染风险评价的方法,确定了地下水污染风险评价因子,建立了基于过程模拟的污染物迁移转化数学模型.以特征污染物Cl-的污染范围和程度划分了风险等级.利用构建的地下水污染风险评价方法,以我国北方某简易垃圾填埋场作为案例进行了地下水污染风险评价.结果表明,污染源与污染物迁移转化的共同作用决定了地下水污染范围和风险等级.地下水污染风险评价方法的建立为开展简易垃圾填埋场地下水污染有效监管提供了一种方法.     

Performance of a Bayesian state-space model of semelparous species for stock-recruitment data subject to measurement error

Measurement errors in spawner abundance create problems for fish stock assessment scientists. To deal with measurement error, we develop a Bayesian state-space model for stock-recruitment data that contain measurement error in spawner abundance, process error in recruitment, and time series bias. Through extensive simulations across numerous scenarios, we compare the statistical performance of the Bayesian state-space model with that of standard regression for a traditional stock-recruitment model that only considers process error. Performance varies depending on the information content in data, as determined by stock productivity, types of harvest situations, and amount of measurement error. Overall, in terms of estimating optimal spawner abundance S_MSY, the Ricker density-dependence parameter β, and optimal harvest rate h_MSY, the Bayesian state-space model works best for informative data from low and variable harvest rate situations for high-productivity salmon stocks. The traditional stock-recruitment model (TSR) may be used for estimating α and h_MSY for low-productivity stocks from variable and high harvest rate situations. However, TSR can severely overestimate S_MSY when spawner abundance is measured with large error in low and variable harvest rate situations. We also found that there is substantial merit in using h_MSY (or benchmarks derived from it) instead of S_MSY as a management target.     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

生态型抑尘剂的选择与实验模拟研究

根据露天矿汽车运输土质路面扬尘的发生机理,从环境本底条件出发,建立了粘结、凝并、吸湿、保水等抑尘因子的选择原则,确定了抑尘因子并对其进行了粘度、吸湿、高温抗蒸发及研磨抗辗压等实验模拟,在露天矿主要运输道路和放矿平台进行了应用.结果表明,由可溶性淀粉、硅酸钠和丙三醇组成的抑尘剂,粘度可达5 10mPa·s,粉尘的饱和吸剂率达到64 6% ,恒高温(4 5℃)下单位面积的蒸发速率为0 3kg·m- 2 ·h- 1 ,抗蒸发时间达65 17h ,具有强的粘结、凝并、吸湿、保水、抗高温和固结路面等性能,而且吸附性强,当一次喷洒量为0 5～1 0L·m- 2 时,可有效抑尘5d .     

Establishment of Markov successional model and its application for forest restoration reference in Southern China

Forest succession is the base of establishing restoration reference which plays an important role in forest restoration and restoration estimation. The study presented the establishment of a Markov successional model (MSM) and its application to restoration reference in lower subtropical forest in China. The compositions of successional system in MSM were divided into three species types: pioneering pine trees, heliophytic trees and mesophytic trees. The successional system was divided into three subsystems: early successional stage, mid-successional stage and late-successional stage. Based on the site survey on the changes in the species and their individuals in 25 years, the transition matrices in various subsystems were determined. The predicted results were used to establish the restoration reference of the vegetation restoration in lower subtropical China. According to the ecological restoration reference established in this study, it would take 150 years for the forest to change from pioneer to mature communities in the region. Successional change of tree composition was forecast by the model, and the scenario forecast by the model reflects the actual conditions observed through 52 years of long-term permanent site research. The restoration experience in the region matches the forecast results. The application of a restoration reference model indicates that forest restoration can be accelerated by taking measures which change forest structure. The above results imply that a restoration reference established on the rule of regional forest succession could be very useful not only in directing, but also in assessing and managing regional forest restoration. Previously, one “ideal reference ecosystem” was used as a restoration reference in all correlative studies. In this study, the restoration “process” was used as the restoration reference.     

Fragmentation profiles for real and simulated landscapes

When a natural landscape is represented by a series of categorical raster maps of varying resolution, a multiresolution characterization of spatial pattern can be obtained in which entropy is computed at each resolution conditional on the next coarser resolution. The series of entropy values is plotted as a function of resolution, resulting in a multiresolution profile of fragmentation pattern in the landscape. If a categorical raster map is available at a single resolution only, a series of degraded maps at increasingly coarser resolutions is generated and the fragmentation profile is computed for this series. An algorithm has been developed for obtaining the profile directly from the single resolution map without having to generate and store the coarser resolution maps. A hierarchical stochastic model is described for simulating categorical raster maps and the fragmentation profile of the generating process is obtained in terms of the model parameters. These process profiles provide benchmarks for assessing empirical profiles obtained from raster maps of actual landscapes. Methods of the paper are applied to several watersheds of Pennsylvania using landcover maps derived from satellite imagery. These examples indicate that characteristic landscape types induce characteristic features in their fragmentation profiles.     

AQUATIC ORGANISMS AND HEAVY METALS IN MISSOURI'S NEW LEAD BELT1

The New Lead. Belt of southeastern Missouri has recently become the largest lead producing region of the world. The impact of this rapid development on the previously rural and undeveloped region of the Missouri Ozarks is the subject of a continuing interdisciplinary study. Since the industrial development began, there have been a number of nuisance biological blooms in several of the small streams receiving effluent from the mines and mills. The major constituents of the problem algal growths were identified and found to include: Cladophora, Oscillatoria, Mougeotia, Zygnema, Spirogyra, Cymbella, and a variety of other stalked and non-stalked diatoms. Secondary blooms of Sphaerotilus were observed to reach problem proportions in some streams, particularly in the autumn. Finely ground rock flour and mineral particles escaping from tailings dams were found to be trapped by the stream vegetation. Concentrations of lead, zinc, copper, and manganese in the algal and bacterial mats were found to be inversely related to distance downstream from the tailings dams. Consumer organisms, including crayfish, snails, aquatic insects, tadpoles, minnows and larger sunfish were analyzed to determine the extent of dissemination and concentration of the heavy metals through food chains. Preliminary results indicated insignificant concentrations of heavy metals in those consumer organisms studied, though in at least one problem stream the normal consumer organisms mentioned were markedly reduced in numbers.     

可重组制造系统降级运作的可靠性分析

作为一种全新的制造系统类型,笔者对可重组制造系统的一种降级运作模式进行系统整体性能和可靠性的分析与研究。针对可重组制造系统中可能存在非关键设备失效的情况,在选取系统中存在单台关键设备的条件下,建立可重组制造系统在一定时期内降级运作的有效性模型。应用马尔可夫可靠性模型对系统不同的运行状态推导出转换方程,对系统的生产率和有效性两大指标进行计算和分析。通过对系统正常状态和降级状态的有效度和生产率的比较,得出了系统存在降级运行模式时,比系统全部由关键设备组合的运行模式具有更高的生产率和有效度,并在一定条件下,系统有效度比生产率增加更快的两大结论。     

Estimation methods for nonlinear state-space models in ecology

The use of nonlinear state-space models for analyzing ecological systems is increasing. A wide range of estimation methods for such models are available to ecologists, however it is not always clear, which is the appropriate method to choose. To this end, three approaches to estimation in the theta logistic model for population dynamics were benchmarked by Wang (2007). Similarly, we examine and compare the estimation performance of three alternative methods using simulated data. The first approach is to partition the state-space into a finite number of states and formulate the problem as a hidden Markov model (HMM). The second method uses the mixed effects modeling and fast numerical integration framework of the AD Model Builder (ADMB) open-source software. The third alternative is to use the popular Bayesian framework of BUGS. The study showed that state and parameter estimation performance for all three methods was largely identical, however with BUGS providing overall wider credible intervals for parameters than HMM and ADMB confidence intervals.