海河下游水体中DO与NH_3-N、COD_(Mn)相关关系探讨

本文应用近年来海河下游监测数据对ＤＯ与ＮＨ３Ｎ和ＣＯＤＭｎ进行一元线性回归,得到两回归方程：ＮＨ３Ｎ＝－１２８ＤＯ＋１０５４;ＣＯＤＭｎ＝－１１３ＤＯ＋１６９２。并经相关系数和回归系数显著性检验,表明在９９９％的置信水平下ＤＯ与ＮＨ３Ｎ和ＣＯＤＭｎ线性相关均极其显著     

技术进步路径选择与中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度

本文采用考虑反馈性出口隐含碳的MRIO模型,测算了2000—2011年中国14个制造业行业出口隐含碳排放强度;在此基础上,基于全球价值链(GVC)分工地位的视角,理论分析并实证检验了不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新显著降低了中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度,而国外技术引进和外商直接投资(FDI)对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响不显著;提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位能够显著降低其出口隐含碳排放强度。进一步研究发现,不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的作用效果受到制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位的影响,并表现出明显的门槛特征,即只有中国制造业在GVC中的分工地位越过门槛值后,技术进步路径才能显著降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度。此外,将制造业分为知识密集型、资本密集型和劳动密集型三类,发现不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度还存在着显著的行业差异。因此,中国制造业应充分发挥中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新在降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度中的作用,在引进FDI和国外技术的过程中,优先考虑引进发达国家的先进低碳制造技术和清洁生产技术。同时,中国制造业还应积极培育自身竞争优势,构建自我主导的国内价值链和区域价值链体系,主动嵌入全球创新链,提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位。此外,政府应根据技术创新和引进政策在不同制造业行业中的执行效果,有所侧重地制定和实施相关政策。     

混合物质谱的简单分类算法

有毒化合物质谱分类是以光谱数据的数值特性为基础的。这此数据的计算机分类提供了各种参数,用以确定属于有毒化合物中某一类的对应化合物。质谱数据的简单分类算法常被用于自相关变换质谱的主分量建模。主分量的有效值为相互确认为确定。对环境空气中１１９种被监测的有毒化合物,有色谱－质谱联用的试验和校正数据所得到的４类预报正确率为７６．５％。     

河流水质的动态马尔柯夫评价

根据马尔柯夫过程的原理,在水质级别评价结果的基础之上,构造水质变化的概率转移矩阵,并对转移概率赋权计算绝对进步度,然后在此基础上引出相对进步度的概念,用相对进步度来评价河流水质在一段时期内的变化程度.运用该方法计算了中国四大河流2005年的水质相对进步度,并对计算结果进行了分析.     

pp´DDT and pp´DDE Accumulation in a Food Chain of Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy): Testing Steady-State Condition

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.010 Background, Aims and Scope Although pp'DDT usage was strongly limited or banned in most parts of the world during the last three or four decades, the parent compound, its homologues and their metabolites still occur at levels which might pose a risk for many ecosystem components. A case of DDT pollution of industrial origin was discovered in 1996 in Lake Maggiore, the second largest (212 km2) and deepest (370 m) lake in Italy, causing concern for wildlife and human health. The extensive monitoring of many biotic and abiotic compartments which followed from 1998 in order to assess the pollution level and its trend in time, provided a great availability of data referring to DDT contamination of the different fish species of the lake. In this study, the recent contamination levels in selected fish species were compared to those measured in 1998 to evaluate the temporal pollution trend of the lake and its natural recovery, given that no remediation measures were carried out on the contaminated soils and sediments in this time span. Moreover, a modelling approach to test the equilibrium condition between water and pelagic fish species was used. Analytical results of pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in lake water were used as input data in the bioenergetic model by Connolly & Pedersen (1988) to calculate concentrations in two fish species and to compare the predicted and the measured contamination. Methods Sampling and analytical determination of DDT homologues in lake water: Five water sampling campaigns were carried out from May 2002 to February 2004 in three sampling sites of Lake Maggiore. Suspended and dissolved pollutants were determined separately. Quantitative DDT homologue analyses were performed by HRGC coupled with ECD detection by the external standard method. Single water extracts were put together in correspondence with the stratification zones of the water column inferred on the basis of the temperature profile to improve analytical sensitivity. Selection of fish data: Concentrations of DDT and DDE in fishes were selected from recent literature (CIPAIS 2003, 2004). Bioaccumulation model: The bioenergetic model proposed by Connolly & Pedersen (1988) was used to assess the bioaccumulation of pp'DDT and pp'DDE of Alosa fallax (landlocked shad) and Coregonus spp. (whitefish), selected among the different species as representative of a secondary consumer level. Results and Discussion The average concentrations of pp'DDT and pp'DDE in water to be used as input data in the bioenergetic model were obtained considering all the concentrations measured at the three sampling stations in the epylimnion where the fish species considered in this study spend most of their life. The resulting values were 0.05 and 0.16 ng/L for pp'DDT and pp'DDE, respectively. Average measured pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in landlocked shad were 0.81 +/- 0.39 and 1.69 +/- 0.71 mg/kg lipids, respectively, and were 0.29 +/- 0.12 and 1.06 +/- 0.41 mg/kg lipids for the whitefish. Calculated and measured values turned out to be in quite good agreement for pp'DDT, while measured pp'DDE concentrations were higher than expected on the basis of the bioenergetic model in both species. Probably metabolic transformations of pp'DDT accumulated in fish tissues in the past are responsible for the observed differences between calculated and expected pp'DDE concentrations in fish. Conclusions Pelagic fishes of Lake Maggiore seem to maintain the DDT accumulated during their life time and the most efficient mechanism responsible for the fish population recoveries is probably their generation changes; for this reason, equilibrium models cannot be used until negligible pp'DDT concentrations are reached in fish tissues. Recommendations and Outlook The limit proposed for pp'DDT in water by the EU Directive 2000/60, which will come in force in 2008, is 0.2 ng/L, four times higher than the average concentration measured in Lake Maggiore waters. Nevertheless, concentrations measured in Lake Maggiore fish were very close and sometimes exceeded the Maximum residue limits (MRLs) settled by the Italian legislation for foods (0.1 mg/kg w.w. for fish containing 5–20% lipid). It seems, therefore, that the 'environmental quality standard' of 0.2 ng/L cannot guarantee the suitability of fish for human consumption.     

考虑逆向物流的应急物资配置流程SPN建模分析

应急物资的高效快速配置是降低灾害损失和顺利实施应急救援的有力保障。应急逆向物流包括废旧物资的回收利用以及可重复利用物资的回收再利用,能起到缓解应急物资匮乏,减少环境污染的作用。本文根据随机Petri网理论,构建考虑逆向物流的应急物资配置模型,通过对同构于该模型的马尔可夫链进行仿真,求得各种状态的稳态概率,结合马尔可夫链性质对关键因素进行静态分析和动态分析;通过“雅安地震”的案例应用表明,当地震灾害发生时,此模型可以反映各因素对应急物资配置整体流程的影响,并通过数值变化趋势反映不同条件下应急物资配置的关键环节,可以为灾后救援和应急物资的利用提供理论支持。     

三重属性的承载力约束下中国水资源利用效率动态演进特征分析

基于水资源资源禀赋-社会经济-生态环境三重属性约束建立承载力测算模型,创新性地将水资源承载力作为投入要素,构建SFA效率测算模型,运用2003～2017年中国31个省份面板数据,应用Kernel密度估计和Markov链对水资源使用效率的动态演进特征进行分析.结果表明:①中国大部分省份水资源承载力在稳步提升,西北、华...     

Estimation of Normal Variance Based on Balanced and Unbalanced Ranked Set Samples

In this paper we address the problem of estimation of the variance of a normal population based on a balanced as well as an unbalanced ranked set sample (RSS), which is a modification of the original RSS of McIntyre (1952).We have proposed several methods of estimation of variance by combining different unbiased between and within estimators, and compared their performances     

Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.