A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR THE OPTIMUM OPERATION OF A MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: The main objective of this paper is to present a stockastic dynamic programming model useful in determining the optimal operating policy of a single multipurpose surface reservoir. It is the unreliability of forecasting the amount of future streamflow which makes the problem of a reservoir operation a stochastic process. In this paper the stochastic nature of the streamflow is taken into account by considering the correlation between the streamflows of each pair of consecutive time intervals. This interdependence is used to calculate the probability of transition from a given state and stage to its succeeding ones. A dynamic programming model with a physical equation and a stochastic recursive equation is developed to find the optimum operational policy. For illustrative purposes, the model is applied to a real surface water reservoir system.     

马尔柯夫法在耕地质量动态评价中的应用

根据随机过程原理,构建了新的转移矩阵,建立了一个马尔柯夫链综合耕地质量评价模型.通过实例的应用,分析证明了其模型的可靠性,从而为耕地质量动态评价的科学化提供了依据.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

高层建筑电气火灾隐患因子定量分析方法研究

为了对高层建筑电气火灾隐患排查进行定量化分析,采用解释结构模型构建高层建筑电气火灾隐患因子的复杂逻辑模型;在利用德尔菲法确定隐患因子初始概率的基础上,经过交叉影响分析法求解交叉影响概率矩阵;引入马尔科夫链修正各隐患因子交叉影响后的概率,得到火灾隐患因子的稳态概率矩阵。研究结果表明:各隐患因子的马尔科夫链校正概率比德尔菲法测定的初始概率更加准确,该计算排序结果可明确高层电气火灾隐患排查和管控的重点。     

Optimal monitoring and control under state uncertainty: Application to lionfish management

State variables in many renewable resource management problems, such as the abundance of a fish stock, are imperfectly observed over time. In systems characterized by state uncertainty, decision makers often invest in monitoring to learn about the level of a stock. We develop a stochastic bioeconomic model of marine invasive species management under state uncertainty. The decision maker in our model simultaneously evaluates optimal investment in monitoring and population control. Using a recently-devised method for solving continuous-state Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), we find that the ability to learn through monitoring can alter the role of population control in the optimal policy function, for example by reducing control intensity in favor of monitoring. Optimal monitoring depends on the management context, including in our application lionfish population structure. The rich transient dynamics of our model depend critically on the relationship between the initial conditions for information and invader abundance.     

Valuing environmental amenities through inverse optimization: Theory and case study

Amenity values of private forests are implicit but play a critical role in decision and policy making. This study presents an innovative valuation approach integrating techniques of operations research and economic theory of pricing environmental goods. A forest planning problem was inversed through altering its reward function of timber values so that the observed harvesting behavior became optimal. The discrepancy between the original and new rewards uncovered amenities values which were linked to forest attributes via hedonic models. This method was applied to a case study of the U.S. southern pine region. Depending on forest conditions, total economic values of amenities varied from zero to just under one thousand dollar per ha. At a discount rate of 3%, a typically managed forest generated on average $243 ha⁻¹ of amenities values per annum, more than twice of harvested timber values. Structural diversity and density of large pine trees were the key determinants to preserving forests for environmental amenities.     

道路交通噪声变化的马尔柯夫过程定量预测

介绍了马尔柯夫过程的理论及方法,并将其预测模型和稳定状态方程应用于道路交通噪声变化的定量预测上,其预测结果与研究市区道路交通噪声变化的实际情况相一致,表明用马尔柯夫过程定量预测道路交通噪声变化是可行的。      

基于HMM和DT的无人机异常检测方法

为了实时检测无人机异常状态,提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM)和决策树(Decision Tree,DT)的无人机异常检测方法(HMMDT).首先根据异常致因将无人机异常分为干扰异常和硬件异常;然后结合HMM和DT建立无人机异常检测模型,定义无人机异常度衡量异常状态的严重程度,确定...     

Vertical distribution of nonylphenol and nonylphenol ethoxylates in sedimentary core from the Beipaiming Channel, North China

The vertical profiles of nonylphenol （NP） and nonylphenol ethoxylates （NPEOs） were investigated in a sediment core from the Beipaiming Channel, North China using high sensitive LC-MS and GC-MS metthods In this core, relatively high concentrations of NP and NPEOs occurred in the surface sediment （≤40 cm）, with the maximum value of NP and NPEOs reaching 3539 and 12735 mg/g, respectively, whereas, no NP or NPEOs were detected in deeper sediments （〉40 cm）. The high concentrations of NP and NPEOs in the surface layers suggested recent inputs in this area. NPEOs with short ethoxy chains （NPnEO, n=0-3） were dominant in the NPEO mixture with percentages from 54% to 78%, which were similar to the distribution of homolog NPEO in effluents from nearby sewage treatment plants （STPs）, indicating that the channel received the effluents from these STPs. The sewage treatment ratio was quite similar to that found in North America before the 1980s. Finally, the concentrations of NP and NPEOs were related to the total organic carbon （TOC） （p〈0.001）, suggesting that TOC was an important factor for vertical distribution of NPEOs and NP from the Beipaiming Channel.     

Rapid determination of phenolic compounds in water samples by alternating-current oscillopolarographic titration

A rapid, simple and sensitive method was demonstrated for the determination of phenolic compounds in water samples by alternating-current oscillopolarographic titration. With the presence of sulfuric acid, phenol could be transferred into a nitroso-compound by reacting with NaNO2. The titration end-point was obtained by the formation of a sharp cut in the oscillopolarographic with infinitesimal NaNO2 on double platinum electrodes. The results showed that phenol concentration had an excellent linear relationship over the range of 4.82×10-6-9.65×10-3 mol/L, the RSD of the proposed method was lower than 1.5%, and the spiked recoveries of three real water samples were in the range of 95.6%-106.9%.