Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

乌鲁木齐空气微生物含量的测定

用自然平皿沉降法对乌鲁木齐市13个室内外空气测点作了微生物含量的测定,结果表明平均室外空气的细菌、真菌、总菌含量及F/T%分别为28583 8、780 5、29364 3CFU·m-3及2 7,证实了该市空气处于中度微生物污染状态。少量测点显示其空气已受到严重污染,空气质量不佳。室内空气微生物污染也重。空气微生物污染以细菌为主。分析了室外空气微生物含量的时空分布特点差异,探讨了其成因,并与其他城市作了比较。文章指出增强环境忧患意识,采用切实而有效措施,减少环境污染的必要性。     

西藏自治区土地资源的适宜性评价与利用

本文综合评价了西藏自治区土地资源的适宜性及其质量．阐明了影响土地资源潜力发挥的主要限制因素，分析了土地资源利用现状、存在问题和开发潜力。并在此基础上、提出了西藏自治区土地资源合理开发利用的方向、对策和措施。     

浙产白术市售种子质量的鉴定

根据试验,浙江产白术种子的净度可分为3个等级：一级净度为95％以上,二级净度90％～95％,三级净度90％以下.其发芽率为45％～59％,与种子批次的千粒重密切相关.种子在室外阳光下晒干.含水量可控制在8％～10％,而在室内阴干则与环境的相对湿度密切相关.其千位重的差异与该种子批次内大.中、小粒种子的比例有关,一般种子千粒重为25.60～37.50g.     

DENSITY CURRENT INTRUSIONS IN AN ICE-COVERED URBAN LAKE1

ABSTRACT: Evidence is presented that snowmelt runoff from an urban watershed can produce density current intrusions (underflows) in a lake. Several episodes of density current intrusions are documented. Water temperatures and salinities measured near the bottom of a 10 m deep Minneapolis lake during the late winter warming periods in 1989, 1990, 1991, and 1995 show significant rapid changes which are correlated with observed higher air temperatures and snowmelt runoff. The snowmelt runoff entering this particular lake (Ryan Lake) has increased electrical conductivity, salinity, and density. The source of the salinity is the salt spread on urban streets in the winter. Heating of littoral waters in spring may also contribute to the occurrence of the sinking flows, but is clearly not the only cause.     

岷江上游半干旱河谷土壤成土特征研究：以大沟流域为例

岷江上游半干旱河谷位于新构造运动活动带，其土壤形成和发育过程有着鲜明的区域特征。本文结合该区域的自然地理特点，综合分析各成土因素和土壤性状，对该区域土壤的成土特征进行了深入的分析和研究。     

WASTE LOADINGS FROM A FRESHWATER ATLANTIC SALMON FARM IN SCOTLAND1

ABSTRACT: Recent studies suggest that waste generation from the freshwater phase of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) production varies considerably on an annual basis. A fish farm on the West Coast of Scotland was visited regularly during a two-year period to determine inflow and outflow water quality. Waste output budgets of suspended solids (SS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), total ammonia nitrogen (TAN = NH₃+NH₄⁺), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) were produced. The annual waste loadings obtained were 71 kg TN t fish^?1 yr^?1 (one year of data only), 10.9–11.1 kg TP t fish^?1 yr^?1, 1.2–2.1 kg DRP t fish^?1 yr^?1, 422–485 kg BOD₅ t fish^?1 yr^?1, 327–337 kg SS t fish^?1 yr^?1, and 30–35 kg TAN-N t fish^?1 yr^?1. Simple linear regression models relating waste parameter production to water temperature and feeding regime were developed. When compared to existing data for other salmonid production systems, greater ranges of daily waste loadings were observed. Wide variations in concentrations of these parameters during a daily cycle were also observed, suggesting that mass balance estimates of waste production will provide more robust estimates of waste output than frequent monitoring of outflow water quality.