低层大气中固体粒子运动及其物理模拟

对于大气边界层中的固体粒子的风致运动－较大粒子的蠕动跃动和较小粒子悬浮－的主要特征作了介绍，着重介绍了在悬浮粒子运动的物理模拟研究方面的一些成果；复杂地形物低层大气湍流会显地提高起尘速率并改变降尘量的分布；有一定我向厚度的风障除了屏蔽效应－－即背风侧平均风速的减小－－外，还滕了终进入空气的灰尘数量的“宏观吸附效应”；总结了模拟悬浮粒子运动的风洞实验所应遵循的相似性准则，并提出了模拟防尘风障的中的     

浅析黄河流域及黄淮海平原降水时空分布特征及其与水资源合理利用之互补

黄河是西北—华北地区工农业生产和生活的重要水资源。如何结合流域内降水时空分布特征及农业需水规律,适应自然条件和经济发展,对黄河水从时间、空间、数量上进行调节性利用,达到河水与降水互补,对于充分利用黄河水资源具有重要意义。本文就此问题进行研究,用经验正交函数分解的方法对黄河流域不同年型和主要作物发育期的降水时空分布进行分析,并根据分析结果提出了合理利用黄河水资源的建议。     

黄土丘陵“梯田退耕”生态重建及地域分异特征

基于黄土丘陵区过去10年科技攻关成果及延安燕沟流域示范成功经验,在总结“梯田退耕”生态重建模式特点的基础上,根据土地利用、坡耕地和1999年农业人口数据计算了各县(市、区)需新修梯田、园地扩建、林草植被恢复的面积及投资需求额度。通过构建并采用基本农田扩建指数、园地扩建指数、林草植被恢复指数以及投资需求密度等指标对55个县(市、区)进行了类型划分和地域分异特征分析。结果表明:黄土丘陵区需新修梯田面积69.16×104hm2,新扩建经济林果园地面积79.2×104hm2,林草植被恢复面积541.02×104hm2,投资需求总额度158.2×108元;生态重建在地域分布上明显存在两个重点区,一个位于陕北和晋西北交界地区,另一个位于陇东和宁南地区;宜及早制定区域性分类指导政策,并应将有限的资金集中在重点区。     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Risk Assessment of Riparian Plant Invasions into Protected Areas

Abstract:  Protected areas are becoming increasingly isolated. River corridors represent crucial links to the surrounding landscape but are also major conduits for invasion of alien species. We developed a framework to assess the risk that alien plants in watersheds adjacent to a protected area will invade the protected area along rivers. The framework combines species- and landscape-level approaches and has five key components: (1) definition of the geographical area of interest, (2) delineation of the domain into ecologically meaningful zones, (3) identification of the appropriate landscape units, (4) categorization of alien species and mapping of their distribution and abundance, and (5) definition of management options. The framework guides the determination of species distribution and abundance through successive, easily followed steps, providing the means for the assessment of areas of concern. We applied the framework to Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa. We recorded 231 invasive alien plant species (of which 79 were major invaders) in the domain. The KNP is facing increasing pressure from alien species in the upper regions of the drainage areas of neighboring watersheds. On the basis of the climatic modeling, we showed that most major riparian invaders have the ability to spread across the KNP should they be transported down the rivers. With this information, KNP managers can identify areas for proactive intervention, monitoring, and resource allocation. Even for a very large protected area such as the KNP, sustainable management of biodiversity will depend heavily on the response of land managers upstream managing alien plants. We suggest that this framework is applicable to plants and other passively dispersed species that invade protected areas situated at the end of a drainage basin.     

Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.     

Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.     

Trends in summer sulphate in Europe

A trend analysis of the sulphate concentration in Europe in the summer half-year was performed. Data from various measuring networks were analysed, but only stations with quality assured sampling methods and a record of more than 10 years were included in the study. 1978 served as the reference year for the trend, because in that year most stations started operation. The relatively dense network in Belgium provided the most valuable data, as evidenced by the fact that two sites at a distance of only 10 km apart correlated better than 95% over a month. The two sites also show a correlation of better than 90% over a season with two other stations at distances of 45 and 95 km. The relative decrease in summer-sulphate at the four stations in Belgium, as analysed by linear regression, was 3.3% per year which corresponds to an absolute decrease of 0.42 μgm⁻³ per year. In the Netherlands the average yearly decrease in summer-sulphate at two stations was 3.5% (−0.34 μgm⁻³). In other countries stations were further apart or only a single site wits in use, which limits the representativeness of the data. In northwestern Germany, a region with several monitoring stations, a yearly averaged decrease of 3.0% occurred. The lower absolute decrease (0.25 μgm⁻³) per year compared to that in the two neighbouring countries reflects the lower summer-time sulphate concentrations. In the remainder of Germany the average decrease was 1.6%. In South-Scandinavia the yearly relative decrease at two sites was 2.6% (0.13 μgm⁻³ absolute). There was no significant trend in the U.K. Al the Polish station the levels increased, it decreased at the Hungarian and Austrian station and remained constant at the Czechoslovakian site. Reasons for omission of the data from France from the trend analysis are discussed.     

Space-time modeling for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey

The Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey (MTHS) is a postseason mail survey conducted by the Missouri Department of Conservation. The 1996 MTHS provides information concerning the number of turkeys harvested by hunters on each day and the total number of trips made to the counties by these hunters on each day of the hunting season. The success rates are then found from this information. Small sample sizes produce large standard errors for the estimates at the county level. We use a Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear model to estimate daily hunting success rates at the county level. The model includes an autoregressive process for the days of the hunting season and spatially correlated random geographic effects. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. Results show that there are significant spatial corelations between counties and correlations between days of the hunting season. The estimates are close to the frequency estimates at the state level and much more stable at the county level.     

Diversity pattern and spatial scale: a study of a tropical rain forest of Malaysia

Scale is emerging as one of the critical problems in ecology because our perception of most ecological variables and processes depends upon the scale at which the variables are measured. A conclusion obtained at one scale may not be valid at another scale without sufficient knowledge of the scaling effect, which is also a source of misinterpretation for many ecological problems, such as the design of reserves in conservation biology.This paper attempts to study empirically how scaling may affect the spatial patterns of diversity (tree density, richness and Shannon diversity) that we may perceive in tropical forests, using as a test-case a 50 ha forest plot in Malaysia. The effect of scale on measurements of diversity patterns, the occurrence of rare species, the fractal dimension of diversity patterns, the spatial structure and the nearest-neighbour autocorrelation of diversity are addressed. The response of a variable to scale depends on the way it is measured and the way it is distributed in space.We conclude that, in general, the effect of scaling on measures of biological diversity is non-linear; heterogeneity increases with the size of the sampling units, and fine-scale information is lost at a broad scale. Our results should lead to a better understanding of how ecological variables and processes change over scale.