基于超效率DEA模型的三峡库区生态效率评价及空间演化格局分析

本文基于2010—2017年的统计数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对三峡库区26个区县的生态效率进行测算,然后运用空间自相关分析方法对三峡库区生态效率的演化格局进行了实证分析,探索三峡库区生态效率的时空动态演变特征。研究表明:2010—2017年三峡库区生态效率平均水平处于0.5601～1.1920,整体呈现波动性变化趋势,生态效率在一定程度上有所改善,但是整体水平仍然较低;从区域层面看,各个区县间生态效率水平不平衡,空间分布上呈现"西高东低"的非均衡性特征。局部空间自相关分析表明,三峡库区2010—2017年集聚性呈逐渐减弱态势,空间异质性逐渐增加,整体的生态效率差异变大。最后依据实证研究分析结果,本文对如何提升三峡库区生态效率提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性研究

在经济服务化与低碳化的双重背景下,研究中国服务业碳生产率的演变轨迹,区域差异及空间收敛特征,对于推动中国服务业高质量发展具有重要的意义。采用2004—2016年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,对服务业碳生产率进行测度,并对其演变轨迹与区域差异进行分析,在此基础上,系统考察中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性。研究表明:①中国服务业碳生产率在整体上呈逐年增长态势,且呈现从东到西逐次递减的格局。②中国服务业碳生产率存在正向空间自相关关系,并且空间自相关程度表现出波动上升趋势。③全国与西部服务业碳生产率均不存在σ收敛,即服务业碳生产率的地区差异并未随着时间的推移而缩小;东、中部服务业碳生产率则在整体上呈现σ收敛特征。全国以及东、中、西部服务业碳生产率均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,即服务业碳生产率落后地区对发达地区存在"追赶效应",各地区服务业碳生产率最终向自身的稳态水平趋同;空间效应加快了全国与东部服务业碳生产率的β收敛速度。④人均服务业增加值增长速度、部门结构以及能源消费结构对服务业碳生产率具有显著的负向效应,人力资本则对服务业碳生产率产生了显著的正向影响。据此,本文的政策启示如下:①重视服务业碳排放问题,构建服务业低碳绩效评估体系。②探索建立定期会商制度,加强服务业低碳技术的跨区域交流合作。③完善基础设施,促进要素空间互动和优化重组。④调整服务业能源结构与部门结构,推进人力资本积累和服务业稳增长。     

海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间外溢效应评价研究

海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间关联性及其外溢效应对于海水养殖业的有效协调和区域海洋环境的有效保护具有重要意义,科学估算沿海各省(自治区)海水养殖渔业碳汇量并探讨其空间相关性特征是制定差异化渔业碳汇发展政策的重要基础。根据2006—2016年中国大陆沿海9个省(自治区)的碳汇渔业资源清查数据,在检验和比较省域空间渔业碳汇总量相关性特征的基础上,运用空间计量模型分析了渔业碳汇的外溢效应及其影响因素。结果表明:①中国海水养殖渔业碳汇量整体上呈现上升趋势,但各省渔业碳汇量也存在明显差异。②研究期内的Moran's I指数整体呈现为"V"型的波动变化特征,渔业碳汇在省域空间分布上的差异性并不是随机的,而是具备显著的空间相关性。③海水养殖渔业碳汇存在明显的空间外溢效应,通过随机效应的杜宾模型分解后得出渔业产值、劳动力投入的直接效应为正,而渔业受灾面积和科研项目经费投入的直接效应为负;从间接效应来看,渔业产值在各省域间存在竞争与依存关系,海水养殖业劳动力投入和渔业技术推广的项目经费投入在各省域间存在互补关系。因此,中国沿海各省份在发挥海洋水产养殖业生态功能时,应当考虑省域区位因素,合理制定兼具差异化和协调性的海洋碳汇渔业发展政策。     

肥煤自燃全过程热动力学特征参数研究

实验测定了林西矿肥煤样品30~900℃煤自燃全过程热动力学特征参数,得出:TG/DTG曲线显示煤样DTG初始临界温度45℃,干裂温度122℃,活性温度195℃,增速温度265℃,质量极大值温度342℃,着火温度465℃,最大热失重速率温度515℃和燃尽温度690℃;DSC曲线显示,煤样初始放热温度60℃、最大热释放速率温度511℃。结合TG-DTG-DSC曲线综合分析可知,煤温达到510℃左右时煤样反应最剧烈。由煤自燃标志气体测定实验系统得出:煤温130℃后CO,CO 2释放量迅速增加,210℃增加速度下降;CH 4,C 2 H 6含量变化具有规律性且两者变化相近;C 2 H 4出现温度为130℃;C 2 H 4/C 2 H 6比值在190~350℃有较强的规律性,呈上升趋势且上升速度较快;350℃之后,CH 4,C 2 H 6,C 2 H 4体积分数均开始急剧增大;C 2 H 4/CO与C 2 H 4/CO 2变化趋势大致相同,在130~350℃时缓慢增长,达到350℃后比值呈指数形式上升。经拟合曲线,得到活化能的3个突变点温度:70,180,220℃,其中180℃与交叉点温度相吻合。通过以上研究,得到了肥煤自燃全过程的热力学特征参数,为实际生产中防治煤自燃提供了理论依据。     

基于非线性技术锅炉故障分析*

为预测和判断锅炉故障的发生,完善锅炉故障检测技术,基于锅炉运转具有非线性特点,提出将非线性评价指标应用于锅炉故障诊断。研究特征信号的非线性特性,通过确定延迟时间和嵌入维数来重构相空间;采用混沌分形理论研究非线性评价指标;提取最大Lyapunov指数和关联维数,并为收集的每种特征信号选择最合适的非线性指标。结果表明:蒸汽压力的非线性特征指标应选择关联维数,烟气温度1、烟气温度2、水管温度1和水管温度2的非线性特征指标应当选择最大Lyapunov指数。     

汽车用聚合物材料火灾燃烧特性研究

为研究车用聚合物材料的燃烧特性,并对材料的火灾危险性进行全方位的评估,采用锥形量热仪,对汽车上常用的ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡以及无纺布-PVC聚合物材料进行分析表征,测得点燃时间、热释放速率、总热释放量、质量损失速率、烟气生成速率等参数。结果表明:ABS材料的点燃危险性相对最低,PVC革-无纺毡材料相对最高;随热辐射强度的增加,各样品的热释放速率和烟气生成速率明显加快;结合热释放速率峰值、均值和总热释放量可知,无纺布-PVC材料的热危险性相对最低;结合烟气生成速率和总烟释放量可知,ABS材料的发烟危害性相对最高,无纺布-PVC的相对最低;综合比较各样品的FGI和FPI值,安全等级由高到低依次为ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡,无纺布-PVC。     

缝洞型管道瓦斯爆炸特性数值模拟研究

为探究采空区遗煤、松散破碎岩块对瓦斯爆炸的影响,建立缝洞型管道模型,采用数值模拟与理论分析结合方法研究采空区内缝洞型管道内瓦斯爆炸的传播规律及管道长径比对瓦斯爆炸过程中速度与冲击波的影响。研究结果表明:在缝洞型结构内,随着火焰沿管道向前传播,各监测点速度逐渐变大、压力先增加后降低,而压力上升速率则表现出不规则的变化;缝洞结构加剧了火焰燃烧的剧烈程度,提高了管道内各监测点的温度峰值;在缝洞型管道内随长径比r增加,各监测点最大压力峰值以及速度大小依次降低。     

Spatial Characterization and Prioritization of Heavy Metal Contaminated Soil-Water Resources in Peri-Urban Areas of National Capital Territory (NCT), Delhi

Due to rapid industrialization and urbanization during last two decades, contamination of soils by heavy metals is on an increase globally. Lands under peri-urban agriculture are the worst affected. In NCT, Delhi about 14.4% of land area is chemically degraded. In order to take care of this problem, recently the Supreme Court of India ordered to shift various non-confirming (about 39,000 units) industries to regions outside NCT, Delhi. However in spite of this, there have been several reports and parliamentary debates on the phyto-toxicity and extensive accumulation of heavy metals in the region. Literature review revealed that the basis of these debates is a few studies on some point locations in/around Delhi. It was further observed that information on the distribution and extent of heavy metal pollution problem in the region was completely missing. The present study was thus basically aimed at assessing the spatial distribution/extent and type of heavy metal pollution in the study area, for enabling future designing of appropriate site-specific management measures by the decision makers.For this, detailed spatial information on bio-available heavy metal concentrations in the soils and surface/sub-surface waters of NCT (Delhi) was generated through actual soil/water surveys, standard laboratory methods and GIS techniques. The study showed that concentration of all micronutrients (viz. Zn: 0.05–0.18 ppm; Cu: in traces; Fe: 0–0.5 ppm; and Mn: 0–1.2 ppm) and most heavy metals (viz. Ni: 0–0.7 ppm; Pb: 0–0.15 ppm and Cd: in traces) in the surface/sub-surface irrigation waters were well within permissible limits. However Cr concentrations in irrigation waters of Alipur and Shahdara blocks were far above their maximum permissible limit of 1 ppm. It was further observed that Ni and Cr concentrations in the drinking waters of almost entire test area were far above maximum permissible levels of 0.02 and 0.01 ppm, respectively. Bio-available concentrations of several heavy metals (viz. Pb: 0.1–2 ppm; Cd: traces; Ni: 0.05–2 ppm and Cr: 0–0.4 ppm) in the study area soils were also observed to be well within the maximum permissible limits. However there were point Cu contaminations (5–10 ppm) in the sewage-sludge amended soils of vegetable growing areas near south Shahdara block. This was attributed to increased Cu availability due to oxidized acidic conditions generated by over-irrigation of agricultural lands. Available Mn concentrations in Kanjhawala, western Najafgarh and Alipur soils were also observed to be above maximum permissible limit of 10 ppm. This was observed to be mainly due to the geology (i.e. presence of Mn rich sedimentary rocks) and prevalence of reduced acidic conditions, due to paddy cultivation, in these areas. It was further observed that there is acute zinc (Zn) deficiency (< 0.6 ppm) in paddy growing soils of north Kanjhawala, Alipur and some parts of Najafgarh and Shahdara blocks due to extensive leaching of available Zn fractions to lower soil horizons. Similar available Zn deficiencies in high pH (8.5) soils of areas around Bamnoli village in E-Najafgarh block were also observed.     

Spatial Patterns and Rankings of Contaminant Concentrations in Herring Gull Eggs from 15 Sites in the Great Lakes and Connecting Channels, 1998–2002

Mean values of eight contaminants in Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) eggs were calculated for 15 Great Lakes sites for the 5 year period 1998–2002. The sites were ranked according to the concentrations of each of seven compounds relative to fish flesh criteria for the protection of piscivorous wildlife, and a single overall rank of contamination was calculated for each site. Based on this weighted ranking scheme, we found that sum PCBs, dioxin and DDE contributed the most (60.2, 30.5% and 8.5%, respectively) to the overall rankings. The weighted ranking scheme showed that eggs from Channel-Shelter Island (Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron), Strachan Island (St. Lawrence River) and Gull Island (northern Lake Michigan) ranked as the three most contaminated sites, while Agawa Rocks (eastern Lake Superior), Chantry Island (southern Lake Huron) and Port Colborne (eastern Lake Erie) ranked as the three least contaminated sites. Two of the three most contaminated sites are Areas of Concern; none of the three least contaminated sites are Areas of Concern.     

火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性,采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性;我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个,火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个;人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关,另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系;2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著,各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。