A~2/O工艺中好氧污泥絮体的分形结构与理化特征分析

采用图像法和沉降柱法分别研究了A2/O工艺中好氧污泥絮体的形貌、粒度分布、低维分形维数和沉降速率、有效密度、空隙率以及质量分形维数,并尝试探讨了上述相关性质与这些污泥宏观操作性质(沉降、压缩、脱水和稳定性)相关的各种理化指标以及胞外高分子物质(EPS)的含量之间的变化关系.结果表明,污泥絮体呈现不规则的形貌,表面具有空隙.其有效密度一般随着其粒径的增加而降低,而空隙率和沉降速率却呈现与有效密度相反的变化趋势,这些均表明了污泥絮体的分形结构的存在.2次所采集的污泥絮体的中位直径分别为248.81、332.86μm,有效密度的平均值分别为0.0040、0.0072g·cm-3,自由沉降速率的平均值分别为2.67、4.79mm·s-1,空隙率的平均值分别为0.94、0.89,一维分形维数分别为1.03、1.19,二维分形维数分别为1.64、1.84,采用基于Logan经验公式的有效密度-最大直径的双对数关系确定的质量分形维数分别为1.74、2.29.尽管第2次所采集的污泥絮体较为密实,但其表面粗糙程度却比第1次的低.此外,研究中发现絮凝能力较高或负电荷较高的A2/O好氧污泥絮体具有高的SVI和ZSV值;分形维数较低...     

北京市家具生产企业职业危害抽样调查

本文从北京市家具生产企业最多的区县中,有针对性地选择其中的18家企业进行现场抽样调查,并对其中的11家进行现场检测,研究北京市家具生产企业职业危害现状,通过现场调查和检测结果表明:北京市家具生产企业的管理者对职业危害的重视程度有所提高,但是从业者的自我保护意识仍然淡漠;生产环境不令人满意,作业场所粉尘超标严重;毒物浓度得到较好控制,主要毒物为苯及苯的同系物。该研究可为有关管理部门制定管理政策提供依据。     

基于拉曼光谱的铅致肝细胞生物分子变化研究

利用拉曼光谱技术采集不同铅离子暴露时间(0.5,1.5,3,6,12,24h)、暴露浓度(0.05,0.1,0.5,1,5mg/L)下HepG2细胞的光谱数据,欲探究在不同铅暴露条件下肝细胞的分子变化及其相关机制.研究结果发现,在不同条件下各组细胞的光谱形态基本相同,但部分特征峰的吸光度强度存在差异.经多元统计分析发现,除6h外,同一暴露时间下不同暴露浓度细胞的光谱数据在LD1上均存在离散趋势,并在暴露24h时最明显.细胞内蛋白质、脂质、核酸、类胡萝卜素、碳水化合物等生物分子的特征峰表现出明显差异,但不同类型生物分子发生显著变化的时间并不相同.由此可见铅暴露可损伤肝细胞蛋白质、脂质、核酸、类胡萝卜素的结构并影响其正常功能,这种毒性效应呈剂量-效应关系,且随暴露时间的增加而增加.本研究说明拉曼光谱可以实现铅对肝细胞生物分子变化的相关检测,这不仅为之后的细胞毒理研究提供了新的思路,同时也为环境污染物的安全评价提供了理论依据.     

基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析

以深圳市龙华镇为中心的324km²正方形区域为例,以1988～1996年期间的5幅景观遥感解译图为基本信息源,根据不同时段景观元素的结构特征,构造一个综合性生态风险指数,利用系统空间采样方法对生态风险指数进行变量空间化．通过对生态风险指数采样结果进行半变异函数分析和空间插值,可以解释生态风险的空间特征和内在形成机制．结果表明,1988～1996年,工作区内的生态风险强度不断增加,区域分布的不均匀性增大;南北方向为景观人为改造活动的主方向;沿梅澜和石龙两条高速公路沿线形成两条带状高生态风险区域,其中龙华镇中心及周围地区是急需采取保护性措施的重点区域．     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

深埋水平岩层隧道开挖稳定性分析及控制*

针对深埋高地应力水平岩层掌子面开挖稳定性及支护结构失效问题,以大峡谷隧道为工程背景,通过现场测试、室内试验、数值模拟等方法,探究深埋高地应力水平岩层失稳机理及控制措施。研究结果表明:坚硬岩体被节理面切割后,在高地应力作用下容易发生挤压破碎,破碎岩体遇水发生软化,导致掌子面发生大范围塌方,初支和超前支护失效;隧道开挖后岩层发生不均匀沉降,浅部岩层最先发生弯折破坏,层内块体错动滑移,继而向上方岩层发展,并伴随层间分离和层内裂隙发育,最终形成宏观破裂面;提出的台阶法、2 m开挖进尺、砼喷层、双层小导管、提高初支强度的整体优化控制措施,可有效提高现场支护效果。     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.     

A data-driven narratives skeleton pattern recognition from accident reports dataset for human-and-organizational-factors analysis

Accidents in the process industry involve several interacting factors, including human and organizational factors (HOFs). A long-standing obstacle to HOFs analysis is lack of data. Accident reports are an essential data source to learn from the past and contain HOFs-related data, but they are usually unstructured text in a not standardized format. Some studies have explored the extraction of information automatically from accident reports based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. However, they were not dedicated to HOFs. Risk communication is considered an essential pillar in safety and risk science. This research develops a HOFs-focused risk communication framework based on the NLP techniques that can support risk assessment and mitigation. The proposed approach automatically extracts the target groups oriented “Who, When, Where, Why” (4Ws) information from accident reports.This framework was applied to explore the eMARS database. The results show that the “4Ws” skeleton of narratives has appreciated performance in pattern recognition and holistic information analysis. The graphical representation interfaces are designed to display the features of HOFs-related accidents, which can better be communicated to the sharp-end operators and decision-makers.