CN算法应用于我国23次强震的预测研究

本文用CN算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共23次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,18次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占总研究时空域的30％,获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明CN算法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。     

Integrated economic-ecological analysis and evaluation of management strategies on nutrient abatement in the Rhine basin

Management of river basins involves the making of informed choices about the desired levels of economic activities and ecosystem functioning in the catchment. Information on the economic and ecological effects of measures as well as their spatial distribution is therefore needed. This paper proposes the following instruments to support decision-making in river basins: (1) the linking of models and indicators to describe the economic and ecological effects of management actions and their spatial distribution and (2) an extended evaluation framework that aims to evaluate management actions on three objectives for sustainable river management. These are cost-effectiveness, spatial equity, and environmental quality. This paper illustrates the potential of these instruments for river basin management by a case-study on nutrient management in the Rhine basin. In this case-study four nutrient abatement strategies are formulated, based on policies of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine and the North Sea Commission. These strategies are analysed and evaluated on their contribution to the three management objectives. Results show that none of these strategies score highest on cost-effectiveness, spatial equity and environmental quality simultaneously. It appears that cost-effectiveness is in conflict with environmental quality, whereas spatial equity and cost-effectiveness show quite close correspondence. This means that a trade-off has to be made between costs and spatial equity on the one hand, and environmental standards on the other hand. This paper offers a framework to make these trade-offs more explicit and provides quantitative information on cause-effect relationships, economic and environmental effects and the spatial distribution of these effects for various management strategies. This information can be particularly useful in the development of compromises required to establish international agreement and co-operation.     

Renewable Resources and Enzymatic Processes to Create Functional Polymers: Adapting Materials and Reactions from Food Processing

We are exploiting materials and concepts from food science to create functionalized, environmentally friendly derivatives of the biopolymer chitosan, a byproduct of seafood processing. Functional groups are grafted onto chitosan using tyrosinase, the enzyme responsible for food browning. The functionalizing groups studied include low-molecular-weight phenols derived from natural sources and high-molecular-weight proteins. The approach of using low-molecular-weight phenols to functionalize chitosan is illustrated with arbutin, a natural phenol found in pears. Results demonstrate that tyrosinase initiates reactions that lead to the conversion of arbutin–chitosan solutions into gels. These gels can be rapidly broken by treatment with the chitosan-hydrolyzing enzyme chitosanase, demonstrating that the chitosan derivatives remain biodegradable. We briefly review other studies in which low-molecular-weight natural phenols are enzymatically grafted onto chitosan to confer functional properties. The creation of co-polymers is illustrated by results in which tyrosinase is used to couple gelatin onto chitosan. Gelatin is a proteinaceous byproduct of meat production. The tyrosinase-generated gelatin–chitosan conjugates have been observed to offer interesting rheological and thermal properties. These results demonstrate the potential for using renewable resources and enzymatic processing to create environmentally friendly polymers with useful functional properties.     

Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development

The prominent place of the chapter on poverty in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPI) is totally in keeping with the priority given to poverty reduction in the development thinking of the international community of today. The Johannesburg process did not lead to any new insights or new commitments in the fight against poverty. Section one sets out a factual comparison of the poverty chapters in Rio's Agenda 21 (AG21) and in the JPI. Section two reviews the conceptual links between poverty reduction and sustainable development, since poverty is used both as a dependent and as an independent variable. This analysis shows a shift in the function of growth as related to environmental protection. Section three explores the naturalization of development thinking in its economic and social dimensions and shows how this affects the policy options for social protection. I also explain how social and environmental sustainability have become elements of risk management and how are both aimed at conflict prevention and enhanced growth. Finally, in section four three lines of action are suggested to enhance the emergence of a socially meaningful sustainable development agenda that, ideally, would make poverty reduction strategies redundant.     

Delivering on the Promise of Agroforestry

Agroforestry – the traditional practice of growing trees on farms for the benefit of the farm family and for the environment – was brought from the realm of indigenous knowledge into the forefront of agricultural research less than two decades ago. It was promoted widely as a sustainability-enhancing practice that combines the best attributes of forestry and agriculture. Based on principles of natural resource management and process-oriented research, agroforestry is now recognized as an applied science, that is instrumental in assuring food security, reducing poverty and enhancing ecosystem resilience at the scale of thousands of smallholder farmers in the tropics.Trees on farms provide both products and services: they yield food, fuelwood, fodder, timber and medicines, which farm families can use at home or take to market to bring in much-needed cash; they replenish organic matter and nutrient levels in soils and they help control erosion and conserve water. The International Centre for Research in Agroforestry, and its partners, are working to integrate the functions of trees with policy and institutional improvements that aim at facilitating wide-scale adoption by farmers.Two examples described in this paper are replenishing soil fertility in sub-Saharan Africa using short-term improved tree and shrub fallows and the results of agroforestry research to support significant land tenure policy in southeast Asia.Although just one option in sustainable land-use, science-based agroforestry has the potential to produce economically, socially and environmentally sound results for the billions of people who depend on this ancient practice and modern science.     

“Measuring Sustainability”: A Multi-Criterion Framework

So far, the elementary question of whether one country’s or region’s economy is moving towards sustainability or away from it cannot be answered with unanimous consensus on the ‘measuring rod(s)’ to be employed. The main assumption of this article is that sustainability assessment needs a set of multi-dimensional indicators. From this assumption a question arises: how could such indicators be aggregated? Often, some indicators improve while others deteriorate. For instance, when incomes grow, SO₂ might go down while CO₂ increases. It has to be noted that this is the classical conflictual situation studied in multi-criteria decision theory. The use of a multi-criterion framework for making operational the ‘measuring of sustainability’ is discussed here by means of illustrative examples and more formal arguments.     

Proposal of Indicators to Assess Urban Sustainability in Brazil

The research related here focuses on municipal situations where problems of sustainability may be defined and tackled on the basis of bottom-up management procedures with the participation of organized society. The aim is to build management models that may be implemented with reasonable administrative effort and cost. Implementation pursues the target of approaching a sustainable situation in the municipality. Environmental parameters for an ideal municipality with undefined geographical location are presented. For each parameter, a set of indicators is developed that can measure the prospect of sustainability. The indicators are defined in terms of numbers or literal concepts according to the possibility of measurement. Examples of management models are presented, which are able to approach the situation defined as sustainable by the indicators. The basic management tool is the learning curve of targeted communities, which is experimentally developed and applied. The indicators are grouped according to their range of applicability.     

A methodology for assessing urban sustainability: Aalborg commitments baseline review for Riga, Latvia

Both the Aalborg Commitments and the guidance on integrated urban environmental management and sustainable urban transport plans proposed by the EU Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment foresee a baseline review as the first step in developing integrated urban management plans and systems. A baseline review of urban sustainability undertaken in Riga reveals significant discrepencies between the sustainability criteria of the Aalborg Commitments and the: responsibilities and competencies of the municipal government and administration as defined by statutes; policy goals and measures defined in municipal planning documents; policy goals and measures defined in the Riga Development Plan. To better orient the mandate of the municipality towards sustainable development, municipal statutes should be supplemented to more fully reflect the issues defined by the Aalborg Commitments and should include sustainability as a goal. In order to strengthen the implementation of sustainable development specific policy goals, measures and targets should be formulated for all the Aalborg Commitments issues when revising existing municipal planning documents or developing a municipal sustainable development management plan. An analysis of the European Common Indicators and the State of the Environment in Riga 2001 indicators indicates that they can only partially fulfill a monitoring function for the implementation of the Aalborg Commitments. This highlights a need to better coordinate sustainable development initiatives at the European level. The methodology used for the baseline review in Riga is useful for assessing the status of urban sustainability when preparing integrated urban management plans or systems, but requires testing elsewhere. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

The transition in Dutch water management

Over the past decades, the Dutch people have been confronted with severe water-related problems, which are the result of an unsustainable water system, arising from human interventions in the physical infrastructure of the water system and the water management style. The claims of housing, industry, infrastructure and agriculture have resulted in increasing pressure on the water system. The continuous subsidence of soil and climate change has put pressure on the land. Hence, the nature and magnitude of water-related problems have changed. Longitudinal research of relevant national policy documents reveals that the water management regime has changed its water management style over the past 30 years from a technocratic scientific style towards an integral and participatory style. We have investigated if the historical development in Dutch Water management can be characterized as a transition. Based on longitudinal research through an integrated systems analysis, document research and expert interviews, we have reconstructed the historical narrative by using the transition concepts of multi-level and multi-phase. This research indicates that the shift in Dutch Water management can be characterized as a transition. This transition is currently in the take-off stage and near the acceleration stage. This is a crucial stage as long as the considerable gap between the strategic macro-vision and the practical implementation at the micro-level remains. As long as these levels are not compatible (modulation), the transition will not be completed successfully. Transition management as multi-level governance model should therefore be adopted to facilitate the modulation.     

Barriers Beyond the Partners: Bureaucratic and Political Constraints to Implementing Joint Forest Management in Tamil Nadu,India

Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain.