随机地震激励下相邻隔震结构被动控制研究

利用隔震结构和非隔震结构间的相互作用来减小地震作用下的结构响应,考虑地震激励的随机性,基于Clough-Penzien谱模型,推导了相邻结构随机响应的拓展状态方程,采用两种优化控制目标,分析得到了相邻隔震结构体系间连接控制装置的控制参数与结构随机响应的关系及其对控制效果的影响,并分别从地震响应时程和振动累计能量时程角度研究了相应地多自由度相邻隔震结构复合被动控制体系,在不同优化准则及不同控制方案下,结构体系的减震控制效果。研究结果表明,相邻隔震结构复合被动控制体系,可以获得较好的减震控制效果,阻尼系数在减震控制中起主要作用,但存在最优取值,并不是越大越好;采用以左、右子结构振动总能量最小为优化准则,在顶层+中间层安装控制装置的控制方案,可以有效地减小相邻结构的地震响应,得到的控制效果较好。     

Increased nuchal translucency in euploid fetuses—what should we be telling the parents?

Nuchal translucency (NT) measurement between 11 and 14 weeks' gestation is an undisputed marker for aneuploidies. When conventional karyotyping is normal, enlarged NT is a strong marker for adverse pregnancy outcome, associated with miscarriage, intrauterine death, congenital heart defects, and numerous other structural defects and genetic syndromes. The risk of adverse outcome is proportional to the degree of NT enlargement. Although the majority of structural anomalies are amenable to ultrasound detection, unspecified genetic syndromes involving developmental delay may only emerge after birth. Concern over these prenatally undetectable conditions is a heavy burden for parents. However, following detection of enlarged NT the majority of babies with normal detailed ultrasound examination and echocardiography will have an uneventful outcome with no increased risk for developmental delay when compared to the general population. Counseling should emphasize this to help parents restore hope in normal pregnancy outcome and infant development. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates

Predicting freshwater organisms based on machine learning is becoming more and more reliable due to the availability of appropriate datasets, advanced modelling techniques and the continuously increasing capacity of computers. A database consisting of measurements collected at 360 sampling sites in non-navigable watercourses in Flanders was applied to predict the absence/presence of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa by means of decision trees. The measured variables were a combination of physical–chemical (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, conductivity, total organic carbon, Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), structural (granulometric analysis of the sediment, width, depth and flow velocity of the river) and two ecotoxicological variables. The predictive power of decision trees was assessed on the basis of the number of Correctly Classified Instances (CCI). A genetic algorithm was introduced to compare the predictive power of different sets of input variables for the decision trees. The number of input variables was reduced from 15 to 2–8 variables without affecting the predictive power of the decision trees significantly. Furthermore, reducing the number of input variables allowed to ease the identification of general data trends.     

地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的SEM模型*

为研究地铁疏散中乘客帮助行为及其影响因素之间的作用机制,通过对武汉市地铁站乘客疏散行为进行问卷调查,从普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知、疏散环境和恐慌心理5个维度出发,构建地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的结构方程模型。研究结果表明:普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知对帮助行为具有直接正向影响,其中安全认知对乘客是否提供帮助行为的影响最大;恐慌心理、疏散环境对帮助行为具有直接负向影响,其中恐慌心理影响较大;安全认知还通过中介变量普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、疏散环境和恐慌心理对帮助行为产生间接影响。     

国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才现状研究

依据对我国国有重点煤矿企业抽样调查的结果,着重对国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才的总量、密度、结构、流失等进行了系统的分析,并与美国煤炭行业的人才状况进行了比较分析。笔者在此基础上,给出了国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才现状的基本评价,国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才断层已经出现,安全科技人才总量严重不足,人才的问题已经开始制约煤炭行业的发展,尤其是严重制约着煤炭行业建立安全生产长效机制;对进一步加强和优化国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才队伍建设提供了可靠的依据,具有重要指导意义。     

Thailand’s economic growth and structural development projections in the context of environmental control

Projections for 20 years of economic growth and change in the structure of the Thai economy were made for 180 sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to compare the following four scenarios: (1) standard growth with infinite supply of factors, (2) finite land supply, (3) fixed use of agricultural chemicals, and (4) combined finite land supply with fixed use of agricultural chemicals. The computable projections suggest that the economic cost of hypothetical environmental control in agriculture is small and further weakened by urbanization. The computed structural development points to efficiency improvements specific to sectors to return the economy to balanced growth.     

美国国家公园的管理对我国地质遗迹保护区管理体制建设的启示

我国地质自然保护区的建设始于1987年，与美国相比落后了100多年。自1987年我国开始建立第一批独立的地质自然保护区开始，到目前已建立地质自然保护区86处。地质遗迹资源管理体制正在建设之中，各项管理规章制度与运行机制有待进一步理顺。而经过100多年的发展，美国国家公园在管理方面有着十分科学务实的机构和完善的管理体系。本文在对美国国家公园管理机构和管理体系进行分析的基础上，对我国地质遗迹资源管理体制的建设提出建议。     

二叠系火成岩地层井壁稳定性分析

火成岩地层是井壁失稳的高危地层,目前针对火成岩井壁稳定性研究缺乏系统分析。基于此,考虑火成岩结构,形成了多结构面强度准则,利用准则构建火成岩地层坍塌压力预测方法,分析该类地层井壁稳定性。研究结果表明:火成岩弱结构面发育,易导致岩石沿结构面破坏,从而降低岩石强度;结构面存在时,坍塌压力分布复杂,尤其弱面数量增多,岩石强度逐渐受弱面控制,坍塌压力显著上升;同时,水化作用也会导致地层坍塌压力增加;水化与弱结构面是火成岩地层井壁失稳的主要因素,考虑两者耦合作用是建立井壁稳定技术的关键。     

Assessing the strength of climate and land-use influences on montane epiphyte communities

Epiphytes, air plants that are structurally dependent on trees, are a keystone group in tropical forests; they support the food and habitat needs of animals and influence water and nutrient cycles. They reach peak diversity in humid montane forests. Climate predictions for Central American mountains include increased temperatures, altered precipitation seasonality, and increased cloud base heights, all of which may challenge epiphytes. Although remaining montane forests are highly fragmented, many tropical agricultural systems include trees that host epiphytes, allowing epiphyte communities to persist even in landscapes with lower forest connectivity. I used structural equations models to test the relative effects of climate, land use, tree characteristics, and biotic interactions on vascular epiphyte diversity with data from 31 shade coffee farms and 2 protected forests in northern Nicaragua. I also tested substrate preferences of common species with randomization tests. Tree size, tree diversity, and climate all affected epiphyte richness, but the effect of climate was almost entirely mediated by bryophyte cover. Bryophytes showed strong sensitivity to mean annual temperature and insolation. Many ferns and some orchids were positively associated with bryophyte mats, whereas bromeliads tended to establish among lichen or on bare bark. The tight relationships between bryophytes and climate and between bryophytes and vascular epiphytes indicated that relatively small climate changes could result in rapid, cascading losses of montane epiphyte communities. Currently, shade coffee farms can support high bryophyte cover and diverse vascular epiphyte assemblages when larger, older trees are present. Agroforests serve as valuable reservoirs for epiphyte biodiversity and may be important early-warning systems as the climate changes.     

基于解释结构模型的应急机制系统分析

运用系统工程理论，对构成突发事件应急机制系统的8个要素进行了定性和定量化处理，建立了应急机制系统的多层递阶解释结构模型。通过模型，证明了要素被分为5个级别，分析了要素之间的纵向和横向关系，确定了信息机制和领导机制要素的基础重要性，为城市应急机制系统的分析、评价和建设提供科学依据。