华北平原地下热水矿床分布规律及形成

我国华北平原分布有大小不等、形状各异的地下热水矿床;赋存于石灰岩地层形成的地质构造凸起部位的地下热水富水性好,井产水量大,自喷能力强,水质好,矿化度低,温度高,具有较高的开发利用价值。华北平原地下热水的热源与第三纪侵入的火成岩无关。地下热水的补给来源是山区大气降水渗入地下经过较大的构造断裂带和碳酸盐岩地层岩溶溶洞、断裂裂隙深循环以后形成的。地下热水的温度主要取决于水循环的深度。     

Interannual variation in productivity of steppe pastures as related to climatic changes

The results of long-term stationary research on the assessment of aboveground phytomass and soil moisture dynamics in a steppe pasture are presented. An analysis of annual and interannual variation in meteorological parameters over the study period has been performed, and, on this basis, the dependence of productivity on climatic changes has been determined.     

The Impact of Changes of Property Rights on Farmland Use： An Empirical Study of China during Transition

In China, farmland property rights characterized by the household-responsibility system （HRS） have been improved since the reform and opening-up. The rights of use, transfer and gain become more stable, authorized and complete. This paper firstly analyzes the impact on farmland productivity, which comes from the improvement of farmland property rights. Then, an economet-ric model is built to test the above analysis. It concludes that changes of property rights will affect farmland performance in China. In the end, some policy implications are explored for fur-ther reforms.     

Trends in Vegetation Degradation in Relation to Land Tenure, Rainfall, and Population Changes in Peddie District, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation are examined in relation to land tenure, population increase, and rainfall variation in a part of Peddie district, Eastern Cape. Sequential aerial photographs between 1938 and 1988 are analyzed to determine trends in vegetation and population change in three different land-tenure units. The areal extent at each date of four distinct vegetation categories is determined using PC ARC/INFO GIS. Long-term annual rainfall trends for the area are analyzed and juxtaposed with vegetation changes. Extensive ground-truthing exercises are carried out to verify the present condition of vegetation condition in terms of cover and species composition. Differences in land-tenure systems are discerned as the dominant factor controlling variations in vegetation degradation. The study also reveals that neither population changes nor rainfall variations can explain the observed trends in vegetation degradation. Earlier injudicious land-use practices, sustained since the turn of the last century, may provide plausible explanations for the trends and present status of vegetation degradation in the area.     

漫湾电站建成后澜沧江下游水质变化

随着澜沧江流域水电资源的开发,其水质变化及其跨境影响,越来越受到下湄公河流域国家及许多国际组织的关注。以漫湾电站为例,利用澜沧江下游1988～2002年6个断面、21个项目的水质监测资料,采取对比分析法,评价分析了漫湾电站建设和运行15年来,整个下游干流的水质状况和主要污染物变化趋势。结果表明,漫湾电站的建设和运行,目前对澜沧江下游干流水质总体还没有明显影响,但漫湾水库受重金属等污染物的污染,水库水质趋于下降。主要污染物M\-nO\+-\-4指数、NH\+-\-4 N、Hg、Pb和Cd的污染呈下降趋势;TP的污染有所加重。重金属Pb、Cd的污染主要集中于嘎旧（漫湾）断面和景临桥断面;M\-nO\+-\-4指数、TP和NH\+-\-4 N产生的有机污染主要集中在版纳水文站断面和勐罕渡口断面;澜沧江出境断面关累水质良好,基本达到该断面水环境功能要求。     

基于遥感技术的松辽平原盐渍化动态研究

运用.RS、GIS手段,以航天遥感MSS/TM/ETM为主要信息源,运用参数构造法、空间叠加分析法和网格等值线追踪法.对松辽平原盐渍化进行多时相遥感动态监测.研究结果表明.近30年来松辽平原盐渍化面积持续增加.强度持续增强.盐渍化面积变化总动态度为-1.03%,其中,1975-1989年为-1.67%,1989-2003年为-0.31%.盐渍化强度中心位于大安与乾安之间,1975-1989年,强度中心向北东方向移动22.81 km;1989-2003年,强度中心向西南方向移动16.50 km.松辽平原盐渍化是自然因素和不合理人类活动共同作用造成的.     

MODELING TRANSIENT pH DEPRESSIONS IN COASTAL STREAMS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA USING NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Transient events in water chemistry in small coastal watersheds, particularly pH depressions, are largely driven by inputs of precipitation. While the response of each watershed depends upon both the nature of the precipitation event and the season of the year, how the response changes over time can provide insight into landscape changes. Neural network models for an urban watershed and a rural‐suburban watershed were developed in an attempt to detect changes in system response resulting from changes in the landscape. Separate models for describing pH depressions for wet season and dry season conditions were developed for a seven year period at each watershed. The neural network models allowed separation of the effects of precipitation variations and changes in watershed response. The ability to detect trends in pH depression magnitudes was improved by analyzing neural network residuals rather than the raw data. Examination of sensitivity plots of the models indicated how the neural networks were affected by different inputs. There were large differences in effects between seasons in the rural‐suburban watershed whereas effects in the urban watershed were consistent between seasons. During the study period, the urban watershed showed no change in pH depression response, while the rural‐suburban watershed showed a significant increase in the magnitude of pH depressions, likely the result of increased urbanization.     

太湖流域腹部地区水位对降水变化及城镇化的响应

20世纪80年代以来,在气候和人类活动因素的影响下,太湖流域汛期河网水位上升明显,洪涝频发。论文基于流域腹部地区站点日降水和水位资料,对历年降水和水位进行分等级研究,分析它们的变化趋势及差异;并采用两变量弹性分析方法探讨水位对降水变化和以城镇化为代表的人类活动响应的敏感性。结果表明:①1954-2006年汛期和非汛期高等级(8~10级)降水占相应时段总降水的贡献率呈上升趋势,而低等级(1~3级)降水贡献率呈下降趋势,即降水集中程度在增加。水位变化呈现类似特点,并且高等级水位的集中程度增加更为显著。②基准期(汛期1954-1985年,非汛期1954-1987年)水位变化对城镇化的弹性系数均未达到显著性水平,而相对期(汛期1986-2006年,非汛期1988-2006年)的城镇化弹性系数比较显著,其造成水位变化的贡献率在非讯期已接近降水的贡献率。因此,以快速城镇化为代表的人类活动影响,在研究区水位变化中发挥越来越重要的作用。     

旅游地旅游者忠诚度机制模型及实证研究——以黄山风景区为例

旅游地忠诚的旅游者是其发展的重要资源,旅游者忠诚度机制研究有利于更全面地认识旅游者忠诚现象,帮助旅游地管理者制定有效的旅游者忠诚培育的战略。在文献回顾的基础上,尝试从交易过程、关系过程相结合的视角分析影响旅游地忠诚的要素,并尝试构建旅游地旅游者忠诚度机制的理论模型。通过问卷调查获得旅游者感知价值、满意度、信任和忠诚度数据,采用结构方程模型方法,以黄山风景区为案例地进行实证分析,检验模型拟合度及各变量对旅游者忠诚度的影响。结果显示,在影响旅游者忠诚度的各因素中,满意度对旅游者忠诚度的影响最大,路径系数是0.41;信任是影响旅游者忠诚度的另一重要因素,路径系数是0.21。     

洱海湖滨带水质的时空变化规律

对洱海全湖128km湖滨带及其外围敞水区水质进行了为期1a的调查研究.结果表明,洱海湖滨带总氮、氨氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数年平均处于Ⅲ类水平,主要污染因子是总氮和总磷;湖滨带水质季节性变化表现为夏、秋季水质污染重于冬、春季,最重时期是11月.水质空间变化表现为北部污染重于南部,西部重于东部;临近村落、农田区湖滨带总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数浓度均明显高于临近林地、山地区湖滨带;强风浪水动力扰动下,湖滨带近岸(离岸0~60m范围,水深￡2.5m)区域水体总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数浓度均明显高于远岸(离岸70~190m范围,水深3.0~8.0m)区域,而在弱风浪下,离岸远近水质差异不明显.