考虑期权采购的应急物资多种供应方式协调优化模型

突发事件的不确定性为灾后应急物资供应带来巨大挑战，而灾前政府难以控制相关应急物资的储备量及成本。实物储备、期权采购和市场化采购3种应急物资供应方式在灾前灾后应急物资保障具备各自的优势和弊端。仅靠单种物资供应方式难以权衡当前应急物资保障对经济性和时效性的要求，因此，需要将3种物资供应方式进行协调优化。对比3种供应方式在成本与效率方面的差异，利用期权采购弥补其他方式在成本和时效方面的不足，将3种物资采购方式协调整合。以政府和供应商双方签订期权契约为前提建立多种采购方式协调优化模型，通过优化算法求解模型。最后通过算例分析验证得出结论。研究结果表明:存在基于期权采购的多种采购方式并存的应急物资保障机制，可使应急物资供应的成本和效率得以权衡。     

Zeolites relieves inhibitory stress from high concentrations of long chain fatty acids

Protein and fat rich slaughterhouse waste is a very attractive waste stream for the production of biogas because of the high biochemical methane potential of the substrate. The material has however some drawbacks as the sole material for biogas production due to the production of several process disturbing metabolites such as ammonia, sulfides and long chain fatty acids. We can in this work present results that show that zeolites have the potential to relieve inhibitory stress from the presence of long chain fatty acids. Moreover, the results strongly indicate that it is mainly acetic acid consumers that are most negatively affected by long chain fatty acids and that the mechanism of stress relief is an adsorption of long chain fatty acids to the zeolites. In addition to this, it is shown that the effect is immediate and that only a small amount of zeolites is necessary to cancel the inhibitory effect of long chain fatty acids.     

Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of forests is gaining acceptance for its focus on the maintenance of the long-term integrity of ecosystem processes, but climate change challenges this view because of its impacts on these very processes. We have therefore evaluated the robustness of EBM to projected climate change, considering the role of climate on forest growth and fire regime in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. A climate sensitive growth index model was calibrated for three commercial species and used to project the evolution of merchantable volume for two climate scenarios (B1 and A2) under conventional and EBM strategies. Current burn rate and burn rates under future climate scenarios were also considered. Under the most extreme projected climate scenario, the periodic timber supply could be reduced by up to 79% through direct (growth reduction) and indirect (fire) effects. However, ecological indicators show that EBM is a more robust forest management strategy than conventional one demonstrating its adaptation potential to climate change at least in the short term.     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Sustainable Rainwater Catchment Systems for Micronesian Atoll Communities

Atoll island communities rely on rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) as a primary method of storing freshwater. However, stored freshwater can be depleted during times of drought, requiring importation of water to sustain community living. To maintain adequate water supply under future climatic conditions, the functioning of RWCS for atoll communities must be analyzed and optimal designs must be adopted. In this study, a quantitative analysis of stored daily water volumes is provided for atoll islands within the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), with Nikahlap Island, Pakein Atoll, and a generic island in western FSM used as representative cases. Using a daily water balance model for the RWCS, baseline conditions are simulated for the 1997‐1999 time period, during which an intense El Niño‐induced drought occurred, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the influence of RWCS features on water system outputs, whereupon an optimal RWCS design using existing infrastructure is analyzed. Results indicate the strong influence of catchment area, system efficiency, and storage capacity on water volumes and the depletion of water during dry seasons and drought periods using current RWCS infrastructure. Adequate storage can be maintained during a major drought if unused RWCS features are employed and if minimal rationing is adopted. Study results provide water resource managers and government officials with valuable data for consideration in water security measures.     

“城市矿产”示范基地——我国再生资源产业化的发展方向

以前三批29个国家＂城市矿产＂示范基地为研究对象,对示范基地的回收利用规模、重点项目覆盖范围、示范基地类型做了概括性梳理,总结了示范基地建设的成功经验,分析了妨碍示范基地健康发展的问题,并提出一些预测性意见,供行业同仁参考。     

Mitochondrial electron transport chain is involved in microcystin-RR induced tobacco BY-2 cells apoptosis

Microcystin-RR （MC-RR） has been suggested to induce apoptosis in tobacco BY-2 cells through mitochondrial dysfunction including the loss of mitochondrial membrane potential . TO further elucidate the mechanisms involved in MC-RR induced apoptosis in tobacco BY-2 cells, we have investigated the role of mitochondrial electron transport chain （ETC） as a potential source for reactive oxygen species （ROS）. Tobacco BY-2 cells after exposure to MC-RR （60 mg/L） displayed apoptotic changes in association with an increased production of ROS and loss of Am. All of these adverse effects were significantly attenuated by ETC inhibitors including Rotenone （2 μmol/L, complex I inhibitor） and antimycin A （0.01 μmol/L, complex III inhibitor）, but not by thenoyltrifluoroacetone （S μmol/L, complex Ⅱinhibitor）. These results suggest that rnitochondrial ETC plays a key role in mediating MC-RR induced apoptosis in tobacco BY-2 cells through an increased mitochondrial production of ROS.     

石油安全指标体系与综合评价

为科学评价我国石油安全的程度,从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力等4个方面,设计了石油安全评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取储采比、储量替代率、石油消费对外依存度、石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平等6个个指标,构成一个新的综合指标:石油安全度,用其对我国石油安全形势进行定量评价。将石油安全度的安全警戒划分为五级:I级1～0.8,基本安全;II级0.8～0.6,弱安全;III级0.6～0.4,不安全;Ⅳ级0.4～0.2,很不安全;V级0.2以下,严重不安全。1993-2004年,我国石油安全度为0.54～0.75,处于弱安全到不安全之间。     

Fast method for simulation of radionuclide chain migration in dual porosity fracture rocks

In fractured rocks with a porous rock matrix such as granites, radionuclides will flow with the water in the fracture network. The nuclides will diffuse in and out the rock matrix where they can sorb and be considerably retarded compared to the water velocity. A water parcel entering the network will mix and split at the fracture intersections and parts of the original parcel will traverse a multitude of different fractures. The flowrates, velocities, sizes and apertures of the fractures can vary widely. Normally one must solve the transport equations for every fracture and use the effluent concentration as inlet condition to the next fracture and so on. It is shown that under some weakly simplified conditions it suffices to determine one single parameter group containing information on the flow wetted surface that a water parcel contacts along the entire path. It is also shown how this can be obtained. Then, solving the transport equations only once for time and location along the path gives the concentration and nuclide flux of every nuclide in the chain everywhere along a path. The same solution actually is valid for every path in the network. This dramatically reduces the computation effort. The same approach can be used for models based on streamtubes.     

Determination of biodegradation potential by two culture-independent methods in PAH-contaminated soils

Biodegradation potentials of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined with soil samples collected from various depths of a PAH-contaminated site and of a site nearby where PAHs were not found. Putative dioxygenase genes were amplified by a primer set specific for initial dioxygenases and identified by web-based database homology search. They were further categorized into several groups of which four dioxygenases were selected as probes for DNA hybridization. The hybridization signals according to the presence of putative dioxygenases were positively related to the extent of PAH contamination. However, the signal intensities varied depending on the probes hybridized and moreover were not consistent with PAH biodegradation activities determined by CO2 evolution. Despite widely accepted advantages of molecular biodegradation assessment, our data clearly present the variations of assessment results depending on the genetic information used and suggest that the methodology may tend to underestimate the real biodegradation capacity of a site probably due to the limited dioxygenase database available at the moment. Therefore, the molecular assessment of biodegradation potential should involve a very careful primer and probe design and an extensive microbiological examination of a site of interest to accurately delineate the biodegradation potential of the site.