1997年11月8日藏北玛尼7.5级大震的预报问题

对 1997年 11月 8日的藏北玛尼大地震 ,我们曾在 1991年进行过预报 ,1997年又曾重申过这个预报。本文用我们过去提出的预报理论和方法 ,对玛尼大震的预报问题再进行更广泛的讨论。文中 ,用立交模式讨论了玛尼大震的孕育机制 ,用 35°线上的 6 0a周期讨论了该震的发生年份 ,用构造交会及“静中动判据”讨论了该地震发生的地点 ,用磁暴倍九法和引潮力增长速度讨论了该震的发震日期 ,用科里奥利力效应讨论了该震余震震级偏小的原因 ,另外 ,还讨论了有关大震 -雪灾链的问题。     

供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究

供应链战略联盟是指供应链上两个或两个以上的企业 ,为了实现资源共享、风险共担、优势互补等特定的战略目标 ,在保持自身独立性的条件下 ,而建立的较为稳定的合作伙伴关系。供应链战略联盟的合作伙伴在享受共赢的好处时 ,也要承担风险。笔者分析了 3类供应链战略联盟的风险 ;应用SWOT法确定风险发生的领域和影响状况 ;提出建立动态合同和增加敏捷信任以有效防范风险。     

Eco-efficiency in extended supply chains: a case study of furniture production

This paper presents a methodology about how eco-efficiency in extended supply chains (ESCs) can be understood and measured. The extended supply chain includes all processes in the life cycle of a product and the eco-efficiency is measured as the relative environmental and value performance in one ESC compared to other ESCs. The paper is based on a case study of furniture production in Norway. Nine different environmental performance indicators are identified. These are based on suggestions from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and additional indicators that are shown to have significant impacts in the life cycle of the products. Value performance is measured as inverse life cycle costs. The eco-efficiency for six different chair models is calculated and the relative values are shown graphically in XY-diagrams. This provides information about the relative performance of the products, which is valuable in green procurement processes. The same method is also used for analysing changes in eco-efficiency when possible alterations in the ESC are introduced. Here, it is shown that a small and realistic change of end-of-life treatment significantly changes the eco-efficiency of a product.     

Fish Assemblage Responses to Water Withdrawals and Water Supply Reservoirs in Piedmont Streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.     

面向环境的精益供应链管理

当前,资源紧张和环境恶化已成为全球性的两大难题.在有效控制生产成本的同时,将资源浪费和环境污染降至最低,已成为企业可持续发展的必然选择.文章简介了绿色制造和精益生产的基本内涵,分析了面向环境的精益供应链的构建原则,提出了一种面向环境的精益供应链结构模型,并分析了其运作机制.     

无消防水池的变电站火灾工况数值模拟研究

当前,建于市区的变电站为了节约用地,其消防系统通常不建设消防水池,消防用水直接从市政管网取水,该消防模式下的取水安全及管网响应情况值得关注.论文以某城市中心城区为例,采用EPANET 2.0构建了供水管网模型,针对供水高峰、流量转输和事故爆管3种不利供水条件,开展了无消防水池变电站的消防系统5种不同火灾工况的水力计算与...     

Voluntary emission reduction market in China: development,management status and future supply

The voluntary emission reduction (VER) trading mechanism has played an important role in China’s seven pilot carbon markets. From a comprehensive review of the VER trading and offsetting mechanisms since 2013, this study analyses the quality management of the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in the pilot carbon markets, conducts a comparative analysis of the geographical and field distributions of proposed and registered projects and emission reductions and provides the CCER supply outlook for 2020 in the aspects of on record, project registration, emission reduction registration and emission reduction issuance. Results show that the potential number of CCER projects by 2020 will be 2,864, 1,047, 818, and 286 with the corresponding emission reductions amounting to 493, 212, 133, and 49 million tCO₂e, respectively. Although considerable progress has been made, China remains confronted with many challenges in developing the VER trading system. Accordingly, policy stability and continuity and guarding against market risks should be maintained to enable the system to play a substantial role in promoting ecological progress and green low-carbon development in China.     

供风量对褐煤自燃极限参数的影响研究

为研究不同供风量对褐煤自燃特性的影响规律,选取平庄瑞安煤矿褐煤作为试验煤样,利用程序升温试验和气相色谱仪,研究低温氧化阶段不同供风量条件下褐煤自燃极限参数与温度、供风量之间的变化规律。结果表明:温度在40~120℃时,随着供风量增大,褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低,上限漏风强度增加;温度在120~200℃,供风量为40~80 mL/min和160~200 mL/min时,随着供风量的增加,其最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度增加,上限漏风强度减少;供风量为80~160 mL/min时,在供风量增大的情况下,褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低,上限漏风强度增加;随着供风量减小,煤样临界点温度降低。     

高层建筑电气火灾隐患因子定量分析方法研究

为了对高层建筑电气火灾隐患排查进行定量化分析,采用解释结构模型构建高层建筑电气火灾隐患因子的复杂逻辑模型;在利用德尔菲法确定隐患因子初始概率的基础上,经过交叉影响分析法求解交叉影响概率矩阵;引入马尔科夫链修正各隐患因子交叉影响后的概率,得到火灾隐患因子的稳态概率矩阵。研究结果表明:各隐患因子的马尔科夫链校正概率比德尔菲法测定的初始概率更加准确,该计算排序结果可明确高层电气火灾隐患排查和管控的重点。