沿海和河口城市防灾设防标准系统分析

本文针对天津、上海、青岛等三种不同类型的沿海、河口城市,运用灰色理论、随机模拟等方法进行了洪水、风暴湖、巨浪等环境因素的计算,并进行了灾害经济损失的风险分析,给出了不同的防灾设防标准。     

供水管网系统地震易损性风险评估

供水管网易损性风险评估就是通过识别和分析系统的易损性,找出管网中相对比较薄弱的部分,为确定安全策略和采取控制措施提供理论依据。借鉴网络脆弱性评估理论和方法,基于震后供水管网的连通性分析和水力分析结果,采用分层的分析方法,以管网的拓扑位置和节点服务特性作为影响管网易损性的因素,分配给各节点一定的权值,计算其易损性指标,采用定性与定量相结合的方法评判其易损性程度。对一实际管网进行地震易损性风险评估,说明了该方法的有效性与合理性。     

Phyt'Eaux Cités: application and validation of a programme to reduce surface water contamination with urban pesticides

This paper presents first results of Phyt’Eaux Cités, a program put in place by the local water supply agency, the SEDIF (Syndicat des Eaux d’Ile-de-France), in collaboration with 73 local authorities, private societies and institutional offices (365 km²). The challenges included: measurement of the previous surface water contamination, control of urban pesticide applications, prevention of pesticide hazard on users and finally a overall reduction of surface water contamination. An inquiry on urban total pesticide amount was coupled with a surface water bi-weekly monitoring to establish the impact of more than 200 molecules upon the Orge River. For 2007, at least 4400 kg and 92 type of pesticides (essentially herbicides) were quantified for all urban users in the Phyt’Eaux Cités perimeter. At the outlet of the Orge River (bi-weekly sampling in 2007), 11 molecules were always detected above 0.1 μg L⁻¹. They displayed the mainly urban origin of pesticide surface water contamination. Amitrole, AMPA (Aminomethyl Phosphonic Acid), demethyldiuron, diuron, glyphosate and atrazine were quantified with a 100% of frequency in 2007 and 2008 at the Orge River outlet. During the year, peaks of contamination were also registered for MCCP, 2,4 MCPA, 2,4 D, triclopyr, dichlorprop, diflufènican, active substances used in large amount in the urban area. However, some other urban molecules, such as isoxaben or flazasulfuron, were detected with low frequency. During late spring and summer, contamination patterns and load were dominated by glyphosate, amitrole and diuron, essentially applied by cities and urban users. Both isoproturon and chlortoluron were quantified during autumn and winter months according to upstream agricultural practices. In conclusion, 3 years after the beginning of this programme, the cities reduced the use of 68% of the total pesticide amount. An improvement on surface water quality was found from 2008 and during 2009 for all pesticides. In particular, glyphosate showed a decrease of the load above 60% in 2008, partly related to the Phyt’Eaux Cités action.     

集中供热锅炉烟气脱硝技术的开发与应用

通过锅炉结构的改进、SCR工艺装置的优化、快速跟踪负荷变化的还原剂制备及控制调节技术的开发和应用等系统性的工作,有效满足了集中供热锅炉房烟气脱硝工程的技术要求,成功开发了集中供热锅炉烟气脱硝技术。在实际工程应用中,确保了在不同负荷段下,锅炉至SCR装置入口段的温度满足脱硝要求,SCR工艺装置能够在不同负荷下连续稳定运行并很好地跟踪负荷的变化,确保氨逃逸率满足设计要求,保证锅炉的安全稳定运行。     

The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.     

二氧化氯应用于二次供水安全消毒的静态研究

采用二氧化氯（ClO2）作为二次供水的消毒剂进行静态实验研究,考察了ClO2投加量、氨氮与CODMn浓度及pH对ClO2衰减及消毒副产物氯酸盐（ClO3^-）和亚氯酸盐（ClO2）的生成影响,并建立了ClO3-和ClO2生成浓度的经验预测模型。结果表明：前4h内,随着消毒剂初始投加浓度提高,ClO2的衰减速率增加,4h后降解则较缓慢。ClO2加入水中,立即有ClO3^-与ClO2^-生成,4h后基本达到稳定,且随着药剂投加量的增加,ClO3^-和ClO2-的生成量逐渐增大。氨氮、CODMn及pH的升高,可加速ClO2的衰减,同时可促进ClO3^-和ClO2-的生成。其中,氨氮浓度从0．085mg／L升高到0．585mg／LClO3^-与ClO2-的生成浓度分别增加了6．49μg／L和8．32μg／L;CODMn从1．13mg／L升高到3．13mg／L,ClO3^-与ClO2-的生成浓度分别增加了13．75μg／L和9．23μg／L;pH从6．49升高到8．45,ClO3^-与ClO2-的生成浓度分别增加了13．28μg／L和10．01μg／L。     

基于产业化发展的农业人才“回流”问题研究

农业产业化发展需要人才支持,但长期城乡二元经济体制、偏向城市的工业优先发展战略等,造成农业农村人才大量流失,出现人才"空心化"、产业化人才匮乏等问题。随着农业生产链条的不断延伸及分工与合作的逐步深化,满足产业化需求的人才结构也逐步细化,许多关键领域的人才缺口较大,如:推动产业化扩张和规模化发展的规划管理人才,提升产业科技水平和产业链延伸交融程度的农业技术人才,促进产业链顺利延伸和产业集群发展的综合服务人才等。当农业农村现有人才存量无法满足产业化发展需求时,在地方政府指导下,合理引导掌握一技之长的农民工、农村籍大学生以及非农籍社会人才回流农业,是确保农业产业化持续、快速、健康发展的重要措施。相应的,实现人才顺利回流农业,需通过日益延伸的农业产业链内部市场的利益联结机制,鼓励并引导产业化紧缺人才组成专业型或互补型人力资本团队并积极参与产业化过程。     

农村社区小型水利设施合作供给意愿的实证

本文基于社会资本视角,在现有文献的基础上,将社会资本分为社会网络、社会信任、社会声望、社会参与四个维度,利用6省区600户农户的调查资料,运用logistic模型分析了农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿的影响因素。研究结果表明,社会资本对农户小型水利设施合作供给意愿有积极作用。社会资本不同维度中,除社会声望对合作意愿影响不显著外,社会网络、社会信任、社会参与对农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿均有显著正向影响,说明农户的合作供给实现应该充分利用社会资本。此外,农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿还受其他因素影响,其中合作认知和灌溉面积对农户参与小型水利设施供给的合作意愿有显著正向影响,而家庭收入、是否偷水和用水纠纷对合作意愿有显著负向影响。提出应通过培育农户社会资本、规范社区用水环境、提高合作认知程度等措施,提高农户参与农村社区小型水利设施合作供给积极性的政策建议。     

城市绿地生态系统合理供水辨识分析

城市绿地因具有美化环境、降低空气污染、控制城市热岛等作用而日益得到重视。合理的城市生态供水不仅有益于植被的正常生长,对城市水资源合理配置同样具有积极意义。为统筹城市生态与国民经济发展,保证绿地健康,需要合理的绿地供水管理。本文以土壤含水量为标准,根据田间持水量、临界土壤含水量和凋萎系数三个土壤含水量值划分不同等级的绿地需水量,将供水量分为四个等级,建立了城市绿地供水合理性评价模型,为有效辨识供水合理性提供了参照依据。以2009年北京市城市绿地供水为例,进行了供水合理性分析,结果表明,从全年来看,供水基本合理,虽然绿地蒸散发受到一定抑制,但不影响植被生长;从逐月供水来看,个别月份存在供水过少或过多现象,影响植被生长,且不利于水资源合理利用。     

公共项目对经济增长的供给效应研究

近年来,政府在公共投资管理领域扮演的角色和发挥的功能正在发生变化,由过于追求项目的净收益到更加关注公共物品或服务所能产生的正的外部性的大小.所以,对公共项目特别是大型公共项目评价的方法、指标、标准开始转向加强从宏观视角的考察.公共项目投资对经济增长的促进作用表现为需求效应和供给效应两个方面.从我国目前的实际情况乃至未来若干年的情况来看,无论是道路交通等市政基础设施还是公共卫生、文教体育等社会基础设施都在不同程度上成为经济社会发展的"瓶颈",即处于长期的供不应求的状况,使其投资的供给效应对长期经济增长的提离推动作用是更为主要和显著.公共项目的供给效应是项目完成后,在长期的使用过程中逐次转移积累获得的经济效益,量化计算的理论基础是投入占用产出技术.该技术反映了国民经济这个开放的巨系统各部门产业之间的复杂联系,能够正确反映项目对长期经济增长带来的贡献,一般用感应度系数表示,数值越大表明对国民经济其他部门的推动能力越强.文章最后给出感应度系数计算模型和投资对GDP影响的计算模型.