我国打印机废弃量估算研究

在对比分析现有7种电子废弃物预测模型的基础上,根据2003—2014年我国打印机销售量和打印机寿命正态分布值,利用市场供给A模型对我国2015—2024年打印机废弃量进行了估算,并分析了废弃打印机的资源价值和环境危害特性。结果显示,2024年我国将产生11421.04万台废弃打印机,2015—2024年累计废弃量达到91525.54万台。分析发现,废弃打印机废料成分复杂,具有环境危害和资源回收的双重属性,若不能得到及时回收和科学处理,不仅会对环境带来很大的压力,还会造成严重的资源浪费。     

Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply

The Bakken shale play in western North Dakota is one of the largest unconventional oilfields in the United States, but published research about impacts on the region's water resources is rare. In this study, besides examining North Dakota water management policies and activities, we also analyzed three datasets: the Bakken horizontal well completion data (2008‐2014), North Dakota permitted water consumption data (2000‐2014), and groundwater level and streamflow observations in western North Dakota (2000‐2014). We found from 2008 to 2014, the annual total industrial water uses for Bakken shale oil development ranged between 0.5 and 10% of statewide total consumptive water use. The percentage increases were between 3.0 and 40% within the Bakken oil production region. The increased population of temporary oilfield service workers contributed additional domestic water use, which was equivalent to ~15% of annual industrial water use for the shale oil development in the Bakken. Despite being in a semiarid region, the impact of Bakken development on regional water supply was limited because the water in the Bakken was adaptively managed and the region received on average over 20% more precipitation than normal during 2008‐2014. Of the 15 glaciofluvial aquifers under study, 12 have seen water levels increasing or unchanged and the water levels for the remaining 3 aquifers have decreased.     

County‐Scale Rainwater Harvesting Feasibility in the United States: Climate,Collection Area,Density, and Reuse Considerations

Roof rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to augment water supplies for urban and suburban uses throughout the United States (U.S.). Studies of the performance of RWH at the building and city scales in the U.S. are available, but a countrywide overview of the potential performance of RWH at the county scale has not been done before. Three approaches were taken: (1) assess the viability of RWH in terms of the rainfall that could be captured in relation to the water demand in each county (excluding agriculture), (2) evaluate the performance of a “typical” domestic RWH system across all counties with metrics related to its ability to supply the potable and nonpotable demand, and (3) evaluate the effect of adding a 50% rainwater reuse component to the analysis. We find RWH could be a viable supplemental water source in the U.S., particularly in counties of the Pacific Northwest, Central, and Eastern regions (percent demand covered >50%). Low population density counties have the potential to meet their annual water needs with RWH, while high‐density counties could only source a small portion (~20%) of their annual demand with RWH. Typical RWH systems in counties in the Central and Eastern U.S. performed better than in Western counties. Adding a reuse component can be a key factor in making RWH attractive in many areas of the country. This work can inform future water infrastructure investment and planning in the U.S.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.     

Climate and Water Conflicts Coevolution from Tropical Development and Hydro‐Climatic Perspectives: A Case Study of Costa Rica

Costa Rica is a nation with a vast wealth of water resources; however, recently the country has faced water conflicts (WC) due to social, economic, legal, and political impediments in response to limited water availability during El Niño events and inefficient use of its water resources. This study presents a spatial distribution and temporal analysis of WC in Costa Rica from 2005 to 2015. In total, 719 WC were analyzed of which 54% were among private individuals and government. The largest urban areas and the Grande de Tárcoles Basin were identified as the main “hot spot” for the conflicts. WC were mainly caused by spills of wastewater, water pollution, water shortage, infrastructure damage, and flooding, and can be predicted using a multiple linear model including the population size and the number of hydro‐meteorological events (HME) (R² = 0.77). The identified HME also coevolved significantly with the changes in precipitation regimes (r = 0.67, p = 0.021). Our results suggest that there is a need to recognize that water infrastructure longevity across the country concatenates and amplifies WC, mainly in the most populated area located in the Central Valley. Implications of our findings include the need for truly integrated water resources management plans that include, for example, WC as indicators of hydro‐climatic changing conditions and water supply and sanitation infrastructure status.     

A Framework for Incorporating the Impact of Water Quality on Water Supply Stress: An Example from Louisiana,USA

Water of poor quality can directly impact the budget of water available for key user groups. Despite this importance, methods for quantifying the impact of water quality on water availability remain elusive. Here, we develop a new framework for incorporating the impact of water quality on water supply by modifying the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI). We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework by investigating the impact of high salinity waters on the availability of irrigation water for agriculture in Louisiana. The WaSSI was deconstructed into sectoral components such that the total available water supply could be reduced for a particular demand sector (agricultural irrigation in this example) based on available water quality information. The results for Louisiana highlight substantial impacts on water supply stress for farmers attributable to the landward encroachment of saline surface water and groundwater near the coast. Areas of high salinity near the coast also increased the competition for freshwater resources among the industrial, municipal, and agricultural demand sectors in the vicinities of the municipal areas of Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The framework developed here is easily adaptable for other water quality concerns and for other demand sectors, and as such can serve as a useful tool for water managers.     

The effective practices of mobile phone producers' green supply chain management in reducing GHG emissions

The aim of this study is to identify management practices that effectively reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with regard to the green supply chain adopted by mobile phone producers. Six cases were surveyed (Apple, Samsung, LG, Huawei, Nokia, and ZTE). The main source of data was sustainability reports, which were retrieved from the Global Reporting Initiative database. A special data analysis technique called rank analysis was adopted. The results revealed that the effective practices to reduce GHG 1 emissions were related to production process and business travel; those that were effective for reducing GHG 2 emissions were related to facilities accreditation and energy saving; and those effective in reducing GHG 3 emissions were related to logistics and customer practices. No effective actions related to the management of relationships with suppliers were identified by this study. Indicative models for the relationship between actions and GHG emissions were developed, as was a value‐stream map. The previous studies reporting the effective practices in other industries reported results for reducing GHG 1 or GHG 3, or overall GHG emissions, without discriminating among the actions taken to reduce such emissions, although some limited actions were reported. This study describes the effective practices along the whole supply chain—both upstream and downstream—and it also lists the actions related to addressing all the emissions, whether GHG 1, 2, or 3.     

Mitigating Groundwater Impacts of Residential Wells through Small‐Scale Distributed Storage in the Skagit River Basin

The exemption for groundwater wells for residential uses from the prior appropriations system, common in the western United States, has eroded in Washington State since about 2000 due to a series of legal cases. Water markets can allow the transfer of an existing water right, typically from an agricultural use, to compensate for the effect of a new residential well. But water must be legally and physically available in a way suitable to satisfy mitigation requirements. A recent court case in the Skagit basin in Northwestern Washington State has effectively halted residential development in rural areas of the basin because no suitable water rights are available to purchase for mitigation. This paper presents and examines the cost‐effectiveness of various water supply mitigation strategies. We find a small‐scale, distributed stream‐side storage system for augmenting instream flow purchased from downstream sources is relatively cost‐effective to mitigate against the effects of domestic groundwater use compared to more common alternatives. We consider transporting water to storage sites by both small‐gauge pipe and by truck. Overall, trucking water to stream‐side storage and release points tends to be more cost‐effective to mitigate against indoor‐use only given current subbasin housing densities, whereas piping for direct streamflow augmentation is more cost‐effective for higher mitigation needs associated with indoor and outdoor use and higher housing densities.     

考虑多主体心理效应的应急资源调度超网络模型

为探究不同人员主体心理效应对应急资源调度过程的影响,运用超网络工具,定量描述差异化应急主体协调运作下不同属性应急网络的相互作用;同时,针对实际调度过程中出现的供需矛盾,引入行为科学理论,量化表示决策者后悔和灾民失望心理,并将其融入到应急资源优化调度问题中;建立以调度时间、应急成本、救援效应为目标函数的应急资源调度超网络模型,将模型转化为变分不等式等价形式,应用修正投影算法对模型进行求解。结果表明:该模型可有效解决多人员主体心理作用下的应急资源协调调度问题;应急主体关联度、灾害风险度、决策者后悔心理和后悔规避行为以及灾民失望心理和失望规避行为对应急资源调度方案的制定有着重要的影响。     

城市供水管网漏损动态预测的Bootstrap-Lee-Carter模型*

为对某城市供水片区的不同管径和管材的管道漏点率进行动态预测,考虑城市供水管网漏损时变特征,采用Bootstrap方法估计Lee-Carter参数模型。针对供水管网漏点率进行经典Lee-Carter模型预测,并通过残差等高线图及其同方差性质检验,比较分析最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法估计Lee-Carter模型参数的拟合效果;考虑供水管网漏损时变引起的模型参数不确定性扰动,利用残差Bootstrap方法抽样模拟Lee-Carter模型参数置信区间和模型改进后的供水管网漏损预测结果。结果表明:Bootstrap-Lee-Carter模型相比经典Lee-Carter模型具有更高的预测精度。