Integrating fisheries into the national development plans of Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Ten years on from Barbados

The development and effective introduction of strategies designed to ensure the ecologically and economically sustainable utilization of coastal and marine resources is perhaps the major challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In response, the 1994 Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) called upon the SIDS to implement appropriate coastal and marine strategies and, crucially, ensure that such strategies were integrated into sustainable national development plans (NDPs). This article examines the extent to which contemporary NDPs and donor support programmes have incorporated the fisheries sector — arguably the most important coastal/marine resource for many SIDS — into such documents. Applying an assessment methodology, originally developed to identify levels of environmental mainstreaming within World Bank country assistance strategies to NDPs and donor support programmes, we are able to identify those SIDS who have most effectively integrated the fisheries sector into such documents. Comparison with data indicating the importance of the sector to the national economy (in terms of generating foreign exchange, employment generation and/or supporting domestic protein consumption levels) enables us to pinpoint those countries with substantial fisheries sectors, but a correspondingly lower than expected degree of sectoral mainstreaming. We suggest that the January 2005 review of the BPoA offers an opportune moment for such countries to redress these omissions.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Lithuania

This article summarizes some of the results from the application of the indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED) tool for analyzing Lithuania's energy sector, in terms of trends, setting energy policy goals and monitoring progress towards these goals. This experience illustrates the potential applicability of the ISED methodology for energy policy development in economies in transition, using Lithuania as an example. The article presents a summary of the results achieved and conclusions arrived at from the analysis of six priority areas in the context of the research project coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and provides recommendations for the development of sustainable energy policy using the ISED approach.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

安全科学学科建设理论研究

安全科学是一门新兴的大交叉综合学科,为促进安全科学的快速发展,运用科学学思想和知识溯源等方法,从安全学科建设的高度,首先阐述交叉科学的属性、研究层次、交叉形式、知识命名和现有交叉科学研究存在的问题,在此基础上提出了安全科学研究的创新思路、安全科学研究的多视角与分类和安全科学研究成果的多样性特征,最后给出了安全科学新分支创建的实例。研究结果表明:只有了解交叉学科的基础问题,才能理解安全科学的发展,才能快速地创新安全科学。     

页岩气加砂压裂高压管汇失效爆裂风险 控制措施研究与实践

随着页岩气平台井工厂化压裂施工启动,在大排量、高压力、长时间施工条件下,高压管汇失效爆裂大幅增加。为减少高压管汇在压裂过程中失效爆裂风险,运用故障假设、因果分析法从人的因素、物的因素、技术工艺、生产管理、工作环境5个方面分析事故的原因,提出了提升采购产品质量、修订完善高压管汇使用技术规范和管理制度、实施专业化管理、应用大数据管理高压管汇、优化现场地面高压管汇流程分配布局设计与联接工艺等高压管汇失效爆裂风险预防控制措施和失效后应急安全防护措施,建立了生命周期全过程、专业化的高压管汇失效爆裂防控与应急防护体系,实现风险可防受控。为页岩气压裂作业的安全提供了参考。     

新时期城市安全风险防控实践探析——以成都为例

随着我国加快从"乡村社会"迈向"城市社会",城市安全问题成为了新时期亟待解答的"国家命题",分析了城市化与城市风险相关问题,提出了适合成都的安全风险预防指标体系,并以"技术防控"开发建设城市安全监测预警系统,以"标准防控"推动企业和公共领域安全管理标准化,以"群众防控"依托安全社区为载体,构建基层社区公共安全体系,为我国城市安全风险防控体系建设提供了宝贵经验和有益启示。     

Societal implications of sustainable energy action plans: from energy modelling to stakeholder learning

This article investigates the potential impact of sustainable energy action plans (SEAPs) on local development through a two-step methodology involving participatory planning and quantitative analysis. The first phase relies on a participatory system mapping (PSM) approach and generates a causal structure at the basis of the urban model. In the second phase, we transform the qualitative map into a system dynamic model which evaluates the effect of the SEAP on social, economic and environmental indicators. This methodology was applied to the case of Cascina Municipality (Italy). Through scenario analysis, we show that some indirect feedback can harm the achievement of the 20% emission reduction target. This process allows the local authority and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of emission reduction policies on CO₂ emissions and local development, thereby generating collective learning on the systemic implications of the plan. We show that this method can enhance the ambition of emission mitigation efforts by small towns.     

Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico

Protected areas (PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) are the top two mechanisms available for countries to achieve international REDD agreements, yet there are few empirical comparisons of their effects. We estimate the impacts of PAs and PES on forest conservation, poverty reduction, and population change at the locality level in Mexico in the 2000s. Both policies conserved forest, generating an approximately 20–25% reduction in expected forest cover loss. PES created statistically significant but small poverty alleviation while PAs had overall neutral impacts on livelihoods. Estimates by individual policy type for the same level of deforestation risk indicate that biosphere reserves and PES balanced conservation and livelihood goals better than strict protected areas or mixed-use areas. This suggests that both direct and incentive-based instruments can be effective, and that policies combining sustainable financing, flexible zoning, and recognition of local economic goals are more likely to achieve conservation without harming livelihoods.     

Understanding the distribution of bushmeat hunting effort across landscapes by testing hypotheses about human foraging

Mitigating the massive impacts of defaunation on natural ecosystems requires understanding and predicting hunting effort across the landscape. But such understanding has been hindered by the difficulty of assessing the movement patterns of hunters in thick forests and across complex terrain. We statistically tested hypotheses about the spatial distribution of hunting with circuit theory and structural equation models. We used a data set of >7000 known kill locations in Guyana and hunter movement models to test these methods. Comparing models with different resistance layers (i.e., different estimates of how terrain and land cover influence human movement speed) showed that rivers, on average, limited movement rather than serving as transport arteries. Moreover, far more kills occurred close to villages than in remote areas. This, combined with the lack of support for structural equation models that included latent terms for prey depletion driven by past overhunting, suggests that kill locations in this system tended to be driven by where hunters were currently foraging rather than by influences of historical harvest. These analyses are generalizable to a variety of ecosystems, species, and data types, providing a powerful way of enhancing maps and predictions of hunting effort across complex landscapes.     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.