METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

新常态下要科学认识环境管理六个量的关系

针对新常态下环境管理面临的机遇与挑战,本文提出了环境管理工作要树立新的思维,并在此基础上深入剖析了总量与质量、容量与流量、存量与增量的关系。现行的总量控制制度在实施过程中带来的污染减排潜力越来越小,因此,环境管理的目标应从以污染排放控制为主向以环境质量改善为主转变,通过采取具有针对性的差异化容量总量控制管理手段,实现污染排放流量管控,同时,应充分考虑现有环境本底负荷的问题,实现污染存量和可能增量的协同控制,这对于推进环境管理工作的战略转型具有借鉴意义。     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

基于环境地理信息平台的预警系统的构建

随着经济的高速发展,环境污染事故也呈现出上升的势头,环境污染事故不仅造成了环境危害,而且对人民群众的安全产生了重大威胁。鉴于环境污染事故的多发性、危害性,应急处置显然非常重要,而构建强大的应急处置信息系统有助于应急处置和分析决策的顺利进行。本文分析了环境应急处置需求,提出了建立环境污染应急管理信息系统的设计框架。     

农村面源污染治理的政策与管理服务体系优化——以上海郊区农村为例

农村面源污染控制不仅是技术问题,也是管理体制与机制问题,探讨并完善农村面源污染治理的政策、管理与服务体系已成为当前研究的热点与难点。以上海郊区农村为例,梳理总结农村面源污染及其控制现状;在肯定当前治理效果的同时,识别其局限性,指出农业政策与环境保护政策的不协调、农村发展模式转变下制度与服务体系的相对滞后是根本原因;针对当前农村面源污染重要的贡献者——化肥、农药、畜禽粪便以及农村生活污水,分别从改革农业补贴制度、重构实现农村多重价值的制度以及完善农业生产服务体系等方面给出了治理的对策与建议。     

全球变化对跨境淡水资源利用和管理的影响

跨境淡水资源的合理利用和协调管理,已成为当今国际区域经济发展、跨境资源和市场共享、世界生态维护的合作主题,成为下世纪制约区域可持续发展和避免地区冲突的一个关键因素,受到国际社会广泛关注。从边界变化、国际区域合作和经济一体化、气候变化、人口增长、可持续发展等全球趋势对此主题的影响进行了探讨。     

全面建立机动车排气污染监管体系探讨

对南京市机动车排气污染监督管理工作进行了分析,指出了存在的问题,设计了未来监督管理工作的思路。提出对机动车排气污染监管要构建完整的监管体系,重在对部门的监管;加强车辆使用全过程污染防治监管,建立对各级机动车维修企业尾气治理行为的监管制度;启用严格的排放标准和检测手段,全面控制机动车排气污染。     

Environmental impacts of residual Municipal Solid Waste incineration: A comparison of 110 French incinerators using a life cycle approach

Incineration is the main option for residual Municipal Solid Waste treatment in France. This study compares the environmental performances of 110 French incinerators (i.e. 85% of the total number of plants currently in activity in France) in a Life Cycle Assessment perspective, considering 5 non-toxic impact categories: climate change, photochemical oxidant formation, particulate matter formation, terrestrial acidification and marine eutrophication. Mean, median and lower/upper impact potentials are determined considering the incineration of 1 tonne of French residual Municipal Solid Waste. The results highlight the relatively large variability of the impact potentials as a function of the plant technical performances. In particular, the climate change impact potential of the incineration of 1 tonne of waste ranges from a benefit of ?58 kg CO₂-eq to a relatively large burden of 408 kg CO₂-eq, with 294 kg CO₂-eq as the average impact. Two main plant-specific parameters drive the impact potentials regarding the 5 non-toxic impact categories under study: the energy recovery and delivery rate and the NO_x process-specific emissions. The variability of the impact potentials as a function of incinerator characteristics therefore calls for the use of site-specific data when required by the LCA goal and scope definition phase, in particular when the study focuses on a specific incinerator or on a local waste management plan, and when these data are available.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Critical review of Integrated Water Resources Management: Moving beyond polarised discourse

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) emerged as a popular concept in the water sector in the 20th century. From a highly techno-centric approach in the past, it has taken a new turn embracing Habermasian communicative rationality as a place-based nexus for multiple actors to consensually and communicatively integrate decisions in a hydrological unit. The 'how to integrate' approach had remarkable appeal worldwide in promoting authentic participation of all stakeholders. However, critics argue that the domain of water resource management is a political process of contestation and negotiation; the emphasis is on complexities, contextuality, power dynamics and the importance of analysing real world situations. They demonstrate 'how integration cannot be achieved' given the power dynamics in social interactions. These apparently contradictory discourses draw on different theoretical paradigms and polarise the discourse on IWRM, without offering constructive alternatives. To this end, this paper offers an option to complement this polarised discourse by examining 'how integration actually does take place' in a strategic context thereby facilitating consensual decisions to integrate water management for a sustainable future.