基于BP神经网络的鄱阳湖水位模拟

考虑到鄱阳湖水位受流域五河与长江来水等多因素的共同作用而表现出高度非线性响应,采用典型的三层BPNN神经网络模型来模拟鄱阳湖水位与其主控因子之间的响应关系。分别将湖口、星子、都昌、棠荫和康山水位作为目标变量进行BPNN模型构建和适用性评估。结果显示：综合考虑流域五河及长江来水（汉口或九江）的BPNN水位模型,空间站点水位模拟精度（R2和Ens）可达090以上,各站点的均方根误差（RMSE）变化范围约050～10 m,若忽略长江来水的影响作用,仅将流域五河来水作为湖泊水位的主控影响因子,模型训练期与测试期的纳希效率系数（Ens）和确定性系数（R2）显著降低,且低于050,均方根误差（RMSE）也明显增大（124～288 m）,意味着综合考虑流域五河与长江来水是获取结构合理、精度保证的鄱阳湖水位模型的重要前提。同时建议针对鄱阳湖湖盆变化对水位的影响,尽可能选择一致性较好的长序列数据集来训练和测试BPNN模型。所构建的BPNN神经网络模型可进一步结合流域水文模型,用来预测气候变化与人类活动下流域径流变化对湖泊水位的潜在影响,也可作为一种有效的模型工具来回答当前鄱阳湖一些备受关注的热点问题,如定量区分流域五河与长江来水对湖泊洪枯水位的贡献分量,为湖泊洪涝灾害的防治和对策制定提供科学依据     

某种同位素发生器用于示踪测井项目的辐射水平调查与评价研究

将某种同位素发生器用于示踪测井的贮存、运输、淋洗及现场测井各阶段,通过开展不同阶段放射性水平调查,对调查结果进行剂量估算与现状评价,掌握113Sn-113mIn同位素发生器用于示踪测井过程对环境及人员造成的辐射危害.     

三峡库区干支流落干期消落带土壤可转化态氮含量及分布特征

为探明三峡支流水体富营养化频发与库岸消落带土壤氮素"源-库"关系转化之间的内在关系,采用分级浸提法,分析了三峡库区长江万州段干流、苎溪河支流、密溪河支流消落带落干期土壤可转化态氮含量和分布特征.结果表明,与三峡库区万州段干流相比,支流消落带落干期土壤有机质和总氮含量较高,而阳离子交换量(CEC)和p H值较低.三峡干支流消落带土壤可转化态氮(TF-N)以OSF-N(有机态和硫化物结合态)为主,且含量上OSF-NIMOF-N(铁锰氧化物结合态氮)IEF-N(离子交换态氮)CF-N(碳酸盐结合态氮);而空间分布上,TF-N表现为:密溪河苎溪河长江干流,4种TF-N形态中IEF-N和OSF-N在干支流间无显著差异,而CF-N和IMOF-N分布与TF-N相反,是造成干支流消落带TF-N差异的主要因素.     

横向流中曝气气泡生成动力学及模拟研究

采用水平集方法和变物性的单一流体运动方程,结合显式时间步进的ICE数值算法,三维模拟了推流式曝气池内气泡的生成过程.重点研究了横向水流对曝气气泡生成动力学的影响.模拟的气泡形状演变过程与国外学者的可视化实验符合较好.模拟结果显示,与在静止水流中气泡的生成相比,曝气池内水横向流动对气泡的生成过程有重要的影响.由于受到水流施加的横向曳力作用,气泡逐渐倾斜向下游生长;气泡生成的时间明显缩短;生成气泡的体积也显著地减小.     

饮用水中的消毒副产物及其控制策略

消毒副产物(disinfection by-products,DBPs)是在饮用水消毒时由消毒剂与有机或无机前体物反应生成的一类次生污染物,其由于具有致癌、致畸和致突变的三致特性在全球范围内广受关注.聚焦于饮用水中的DBPs,介绍了DBPs的主要分类和研究历程,汇总了多地饮用水中常见DBPs的浓度水平以及全球饮用水水质标准对DBP指标的管控要求.随后系统介绍了饮用水中DBPs的控制策略,包括源头控制、过程控制、末端控制以及协同控制这4大类,并对各类控制方法的优缺点进行了分析.评述了中国的DBPs研究的现有水平和未来趋势,并展望了未来有关DBPs控制方法的研究方向.一方面,在评价某种工艺或技术对DBPs的控制效果时需要考虑DBPs浓度和水质综合毒性的变化,另一方面,建议关注耦合源头、过程和末端控制技术的协同控制方法,兼顾从源头到龙头每个节点,实现对饮用水中各类DBPs的高效控制.     

Treatment of tunnel wash waters – experiments with organic sorbent materials. Part II: Removal of toxic metals

In the first part of the article, the column and the bag experiments concerning removal of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nonpolar oil (NPO) from tunnel wash waters using organic sorbent materials have been described. This part presents the results of removal of toxic metals. The metals of concern (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mo, Ni, and Zn) were selected based on the priority toxicant pollutants defined in surface water quality criteria. Concentrations of these metals in the collected effluent...     

Development of inherent safety and health index for formulated product design

The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method.     

历史灾害资料在当前减灾工作中大有作为：—以1862年珠江三角洲的风暴潮为例

本文从历史资料中分析出1862年7月27日珠江三角洲的特大风暴潮,潮位可能高达7.6～8.5m,远远超出应用15a观测资料外推的1000a一遇潮位2.86～5.11m,证明历史灾害资料在当前减灾工作中可发挥重大作用。     

区域优势自然资源的评价——以河南省黄河两岸地区为例

本文试图从区域、自然资源本身和资源的外部条件出发,通过分析区域优势自然资源的概念,选择建立了衡量区域优势自然资源的6项标准体系,并以河南省黄河两岸地区为例,借助与高层次区域的比较研究,确定了该区域的优势自然资源是:铝土矿为第一优势资源,天然气为第二优势资源,以下资源次序为石油、煤、金矿、水泥灰岩、耐火粘土和水资源等。这为合理开发区域优势自然资源提供了重要科学依据.     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.