Utility of Measuring Abundance versus Consistent Occupancy in Predicting Biodiversity Persistence

Abstract:  The primary goals of reserve selection are to represent all chosen units of biodiversity and to ensure their long-term persistence while minimizing costs. We considered two simple proxies of species persistence: a time series of point-count data to calculate abundance and a time series of presence–absence data to calculate permanence (a measure of consistent occupancy over time). Using two 10-year intervals of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we compared the performance of each measure at predicting persistence 18 years later. For nonrare species, abundance and permanence predicted persistence similarly well. We performed complementarity-based reserve selections with data on species abundance and permanence (from 1970 to 1979) and then evaluated the effectiveness of the reserve networks at maintaining species populations and efficiency in land use (data from 1997 to 2006). Abundance proved a better predictor of future local persistence than permanence, which justifies the relatively larger financial and temporal costs of collecting a time series of point-count data to estimate abundance. If future extinction events were used as a measure of reserve-network effectiveness, the performance of abundance and permanence did not differ markedly. Nevertheless, when future abundance, which is a more sensitive measure of network effectiveness, was used, abundance was significantly better than permanence at selecting longer-term, high-quality, species-specific habitat but required larger reserves to do so .     

二元混合液体闪点的计算

以混合溶液纯组分易燃液体闪点的饱和蒸气压为基础,应用乌拉尔定律、双液系的气-液相平衡理论,运用Le Chatelier方程和安托因方程导出二元混合液的闪点计算方法。并例举易燃液体与易燃液体组成的理想混合液、易燃液体与易燃液体组成的非理想混合液、易燃液体与不燃液体组成的非理想混合液的计算过程。乙醇溶液闪点的计算结果与现有的文献资料比较,误差在允许范围内。计算数据用Excel处理,快捷准确,用于确定二元混合液体的火灾危险性。     

不同季节生态型大白菜光合作用对夏季高温强光的响应

分别以春季品种强势、夏季品种夏珍白1号和秋季品种鲁白8号大白菜（Brassica campestrisL.ssp.Pekinesis(Lour)Olsson）为试材，研究了不同季节生态型大白菜在莲座末期或结球初期，叶片光合作用对夏季高温、强光胁迫的响应。结果表明，不同季节生态型大白菜在高温、强光下的光合特性存在明显差异，夏珍白1号的光合速率（Pn）、蒸腾速率（Tr）、气孔导度（Gs）的极值明显高于强势和鲁白8号，光合“午休“现象较轻；中午12：00时光系统Ⅱ的光化学效率（Fv/Fm）夏珍白1号、强势较高，鲁白8号较低；室内人工控制高温、强光下，夏珍白1号的光合速率较高，鲁白8号较低；利用直线方程求得大白菜的温度补偿点为55℃左右，品种略有差异，夏珍白1号（56.97℃）高于强势（54.81℃）和鲁白8号（54.40℃）。图5参13。     

STATISTICAL IDENTIFICATION OF STORAGE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method for the statistical identification of storage models for daily riverflow time series, together with numerical results. The first step in the identification process is to obtain a discrete time version of a storage model using a local linearization approach. It is shown that the discrete time version thus obtained may be utilized in the identification of the original storage model. A statistical method for the identification of daily rainfall time series models used in simulation is also presented. This identification procedure employs the maximum likelihood method for point process data analysis and is illustrated by means of numerical examples.     

典型耦合优化算法在源项反演中的对比研究

突发大气污染事故中,污染源的快速、准确确定是应急处置的基础.为研究有效的源项评估方法,本文基于美国草原外场SO₂释放实验,利用GA-PSO、GA-NM、PSO-NM 3种耦合算法,分别与高斯点源烟羽扩散模型结合,对源强和位置等污染源参数进行反演与对比,并从算法结构与大气扩散条件方面进行反演效果差异分析.结果表明,从源强反演角度看,PSO-NM反演结果的准确性最高、稳定性最强,平均误差（11.3%）与平均标准偏差（0.7g/s）明显低于GA-NM（16.4%、13.3g/s）与GA-PSO（29.0%、26.6g/s）.从位置反演角度看,PSO-NM的反演结果最为稳定,反演的平均标准偏差（0.29m）明显低于GA-NM（3.20m）与GA-PSO（3.03m）算法;在不稳定和中性扩散条件下,PSO-NM算法的位置反演准确性最高,误差为4.97m;但在稳定扩散条件下,GA-NM的位置反演误差（7.69m）最小.从反演效率角度看,PSO-NM与GA-NM反演时间最短,更适用于污染源的快速确定.     

基于理想点法的加筋板屈曲承载力优化

目的针对加筋板在使用工况中易发生屈曲和结构失稳,提出一种基于理想点法的屈曲承载力优化设计方法。方法以加筋板的屈曲承载力最大和结构质量最小为目标,以加筋板的屈曲、最大vonMises应力和筋条压损等为约束条件,并利用理想点法将多目标优化问题转化为单目标优化问题。基于ANSYS参数化建模技术,构建屈曲分析、优化设计一体化分析与设计模型,并采用单目标优化算法——DOWNHILL SIMPLEX算法实施了优化分析。结果优化后结构质量从0.195 kg增加到0.24 kg,增加了23%,结构承载力从129.4 k N提升到235.84 kN,提高了82%。结论通过优化能够获得结构性能折中的方案,可为加筋板结构设计应用提供参考。     

Reconnaissance of Pharmaceuticals and Wastewater Indicators in Streambed Sediments of the Lower Columbia River Basin,Oregon and Washington

One by‐product of advances in modern chemistry is the accumulation of synthetic chemicals in the natural environment. These compounds include contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), some of which are endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) that can have detrimental reproductive effects. The role of sediments in accumulating these types of chemicals and acting as a source of exposure for aquatic organisms is not well understood. Here we present a small‐scale reconnaissance of CECs in bed sediments of the lower Columbia River and several tributaries and urban streams. Surficial bed sediment samples were collected from the Columbia River, the Willamette River, the Tualatin River, and several small urban creeks in Oregon. Thirty‐nine compounds were detected at concentrations ranging from <1 to >1,000 ng [g sediment]^?1 dry weight basis. Concentrations and frequencies of detection were higher in tributaries and small urban creeks than in the Columbia River mainstem, suggesting a higher risk of exposure to aquatic life in lower order streams. Ten known or suspected EDCs were detected during the study. At least one EDC was detected at 21 of 23 sites sampled; several EDCs were detected in sediment from most sites. This study is the first to document the occurrence of a large suite of CECs in the sediments of the Columbia River basin. A better understanding of the role of sediment in the fate and effects of emerging contaminants is needed.     

我国环境立法的误区及对策研究

我国目前的环境立法存在一些不足,有些具有“部门立法”、“主体立法”的特征,对行政管理相对人而言又多表现为“义务本位”立法;某些法律与另一些法律之间存在着矛盾,一些法律制度和措施还不够完善。要改变这种状况,环境立法工作应当实现以下几点转变:一是政府部门应由“权力主体”向“义务主体”转变,二是由“主体立法” 向“行为立法”转变,三是行政管理相对人由“义务本位”向“权利义务一致”转变,四是环境法律制度应由行政性制度向经济性制度转变,五是在立法技术上由强调速度和数量向强调质量转变。     

城镇化建设中乡村环境保护关键点分析

城镇化是推动我国经济社会发展的重要动力,在高速发展的同时,带来大量污染排放,威胁乡村环境质量与可持续发展。在对乡村生态环境问题剖析的基础上,从战略、实施、方式等层面探索解决思路,围绕科学规划、发展方式、基础建设、管理机制、宣传教育等方面分析关键点,加强乡村环境保护,保障城镇化建设健康发展,为促进农村农业持续发展提供持久动力。     

导热性能对浸油沙层闪点、燃点的影响研究

研究了浸油沙层的导热性能对浸油沙层闪点和燃点的影响。选用柴油作为燃料液体,铜粉和沙子的混合物代表沙层,浸油沙层的导热系数由混合物中的沙子和铜粉比例控制。实验结果表明,浸油沙层的导热性能对其着火特性有重要影响。不加铜粉时,存在一个使混合物的闪点与燃点最小的沙油质量比。随着铜粉添加量的增加,闪点与燃点的最小值点逐渐消失。这可能是加入细铜粉使混合物的表面平整造成的。在最小点后,随铜粉添加量的增加,也就是随混合物的导热性能的改善,混合物的闪点与燃点增大。但当沙子与铜粉的质量比达到1：1时,闪点与燃点随沙油质量比的变化出现了一个最大值,之后闪点和燃点随沙油质量比的增加而降低。这些现象的出现可能是导热能力、毛细现象和混合物内部的空隙三者共同作用的结果。