气相分子吸收光谱法测定氨氮校准曲线斜率、截距参考值研究

主要阐述了气相分子吸收光谱法测定氨氮的校准曲线斜率、截距参考值的分析.文章收集了临安市环境监测站实验室自2012年以来气相分子吸收光谱法氨氮校准曲线制作的一系列原始数据,并通过数理统计方法对校准曲线、残余标准偏差、斜率扩展不确定度、截距扩展不确定度开展了详细讨论,得出气相分子吸收光谱法氨氮校准曲线截距a值、斜率b值实验室参考值.此结果对实验室分析人员判定氨氮项目校准曲线制作是否合格具有一定的参考价值.     

关于重量法测定硫酸盐化速率的不确定度分析

碳酸钾溶液浸渍过的玻璃纤维滤膜曝露于空气中,与空气中的二氧化硫、硫酸雾、硫化氢等发生反应,生成硫酸盐。测定生成的硫酸盐含量,计算硫酸盐化速率。不确定度的来源主要包括:样品重复性分析、电子天平称量等。评定结果为硫酸盐化速率的不确定度(2.90±0.06)(SO3),mg/(100cm2碱片·d),k=2。     

随机不确定性影响下某航炮发射动力学仿真

目的研究随机不确定性对航炮发射动力学响应的影响,提高其射击密集度。方法建立某航炮刚柔耦合动力学模型,利用ADAMS软件进行发射动力学仿真分析。考虑航炮射击过程中的不确定因素,采用非概率凸集模型进行量化,揭示缓冲器弹簧刚度、平衡机弹簧刚度、炮膛合力等参数不确定性对航炮射击密集度的影响规律。结果炮口振动在不确定性因素的影响下,出现振动幅值增大,在区间范围内波动的现象。结论航炮射击时的炮口振动严重影响了射击密集度,因此在设计时必须考虑不确定性因素,所得结果对于提高航炮系统射击密集度具有一定的指导意义。     

A Recourse‐Based Interval Fuzzy Programming Model for Point‐Nonpoint Source Effluent Trading under Uncertainty

In this study, a recourse‐based interval fuzzy programming (RIFP) model is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy, interval, and/or probabilistic forms in an effluent trading program. It can incorporate preregulated water‐pollution control policies directly into its optimization process, such that an effective linkage between environmental regulations and economic implications (i.e., penalties) caused by improper policies due to uncertainty existence can be provided. The RIFP model is applied to point‐nonpoint source effluent trading of the Xiangxi River in China. The efficiency of trading efforts between water quality improvement and net system benefit under different degrees of satisfying discharge limits is analyzed. The results are able to help support (1) formulation of water‐pollution control strategies under various economic objectives and system‐reliability constraints, (2) selection of the desired effluent trading pattern for point and nonpoint sources, and (3) generation of tradeoffs among system benefit, satisfaction degree, and pollutant mitigation under multiple uncertainties. Compared with the traditional regulatory approaches, the results demonstrate that the water‐pollution control program can be performed more cost‐effectively through trading than nontrading.     

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature I: Daily Flow and Stream Temperature Projections

Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

基于水质模拟的不确定条件下两阶段随机水资源规划模型

针对流域内不同企业的水资源分配及企业生产污染排放导致的水环境问题,运用区间两阶段随机规划的方法,耦合区间两阶段模型（ITSP）和区间水质模型（IS-P）,建立不确定两阶段随机水质-水量耦合规划模型（ITSP-SP）.该模型以流域内系统利益最大为目标函数,模拟了流域内各个企业的水量分配及排污过程中河道水质变化,并在保证河流水质达标前提下优化预计分配水量,调整企业生产规模.通过模型运算得到区间解,为管理者提供了多样的决策方案.并且,该模型充分考虑不确定因素对系统利益的影响,能够有效的规避系统决策失误及方案缺失现象.     

全氟和多氟烷基化合物的环境风险评估研究现状、不确定性与趋势分析

本研究系统梳理了国际学术界关于全氟和多氟烷基化合物(perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)的术语、范畴和应用物质的界定与变迁,以PFASs的环境危害性评估和暴露评估为重心,综述评析当前关于PFASs环境风险评估研究现状、不确定性和发展趋势.总体上,PFASs风险评估正面临着物质谱系复杂、种类众多、衍生关系复杂、商业秘密及风险不确定的复杂局面.尽管长链PFASs的环境风险已获广泛认可,但以其替代品形式大量涌现的短链PFASs及各类短链氟调聚物的环境危害性、环境行为和暴露风险则尚存很多的不确定性与研究空白,国际社会对于PFASs的风险控制范畴值得商榷.PFASs替代物质的结构和风险信息因商业秘密及市场竞争因素而缺乏公开性和透明度,多数含氟和非氟替代品的环境风险尚有待识别.总之,国际上对PFASs风险评估研究呈现出由以全氟辛烷磺酸类化合物(perfluorooctane sulfonic acid,PFOS)和全氟辛酸类化合物(perfluorooctanoic acid,PFOA)等为代表的长链全氟烷基酸(perfluoroalkyl acids,PFAAs)逐步扩展到短链PFAAs,再扩展到其他非PFAAs的PFASs物种的发展趋势.当前亟待解决及未来将持续研究关注的主要问题:关于短链PFASs的生物累积性和环境迁移性等关键环境危害性的评估指标和方法的优化,以及其环境释放和多介质环境归趋;中性PFASs的环境归趋及其作为短链PFAAs潜在前体物质的转化与贡献;未来PFASs含氟或非氟替代品的风险识别和评估.     

不确定背景值下浅水湖泊沉积物重金属生态风险评价

基于安徽某湖泊沉积物柱状样重金属实测含量,研究了各类重金属的垂向变化趋势及来源;采用拉丁超立方抽样方法随机产生已知范围内的重金属背景值,计算沉积物重金属综合潜在生态风险水平,研究其结果不确定性,评价湖泊沉积物重金属污染程度.结果表明,沉积物重金属的含量及综合潜在生态风险水平沿深度方向呈逐渐降低的趋势,上层沉积物存在较高的综合潜在生态风险;不确定性评价方法可以在沉积物垂向上得到沉积物重金属综合潜在生态风险水平的包络面,不确定性的结果可以给出综合潜在生态风险超出风险阈值的可信度和特定置信度下的综合潜在生态风险指数置信区间;90%置信度下两个沉积物采样点上层重金属综合潜在生态风险指数（RI）的置信区间分别为340.08~412.89和271.61~327.67,处于重度综合潜在生态风险水平阈值附近的评价结果让不同风险偏好的决策者在面临修复、清淤等决策时可以做出符合自身预期的决策.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的河流水质评价——以温瑞塘河为例

基于水质评价的综合污染指数（CWQI）法和水质指标实测含量的统计分析,应用Monte Carlo模拟方法,建立了河流水质评价的Monte Carlo-CWQI耦合模型并进行实例研究.通过建立的耦合模型和温瑞塘河流域14个监测断面2004~2010年的水质监测数据,定量分析各监测断面隶属于不同污染等级的概率水平和各水质指标对水体污染的影响程度.结果表明：温瑞塘河水系水质污染十分严重,勤奋、九山、东水厂、十字河、南白象、灰桥、新桥、米筛桥、仙门、光明、郭溪、瞿溪、西岙和梧田监测断面处于重度污染的概率分别为28.50%,0.55%,92.71%,59.73%,78.85%,39.38%,78.87%,83.09%,65.32%,78.08%,0.00%,0.96%,68.09%,86.06%;处于严重污染的概率分别为71.28%,0.01%,4.33%,39.76%,21.07%,60.59%,4.42%,12.41%,11.02%,21.24%,0.00%,0.02%,1.42%,13.12%.各监测断面总氮（TN）,氨氮（NH₃-N）和溶解氧（DO）的Spearman等级相关系数范围分别是0.41~0.76、0.25~0.63和0.14~0.66,是其他指标的2倍以上,表明影响该地区水质达标的主要因子是TN,NH₃-N和DO.本研究拓宽了河流水质评价的研究视角,能够为流域水环境管理提供丰富的决策依据.