北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征

人口老龄化现已成为当今主要的人口问题之一,并引起越来越多的关注,人口老龄化进程与老年人口空间分布特征研究是未来人口问题研究的一个重要分支.本文基于ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析,利用北京市第四次和第五次人口普查数据以及1995和2005年1％人口抽样调查数据,对北京市县域尺度老龄人口分布总体和局部空间差异的变化趋势、特征进行了初步探索.结果表明,北京市老龄人口空间分布各区县差异较大,且呈现出明显的圈层结构特征,中心四城区老龄人口比重较高,近郊区老龄人口比重较全市平均水平低,远郊区老年人口比重又有所回升;同时,北京地区老年人口各区县的空间分布差异随着时间的推移而不断扩大,中心老城区呈现不断增强的集聚趋势,而远郊区的老年人口扩散效应明显大于集聚效应.     

苏南地区转型发展中的人口问题研究

本文利用三普、四普、五普和最新的人口抽样调查资料,运用历史分析法和对比分析法,首先对苏南地区20世纪80年代以来的人口增长、人口城市化、人口结构演变等进行了回顾,评述了人口发展在苏南经济高速增长中所发挥的重要作用,并总结了苏南地区人口发展中的新特征;然后,提出苏南人口发展现状对苏南地区未来的进一步提升发展可能造成的主要制约与矛盾;最后,从政策调控的角度,分区、分类提出了人口优化发展的措施。     

中国转型期水环境治理中的政府责任研究

水环境问题已成为制约我国长期可持续发展的主要瓶颈.如何有效治理水环境问题已引起全社会的普遍关注.本文在全面分析水环境公共物品属性以及水环境问题的客观现实的基础上,论证了政府承担治理水环境责任的必要性.进而对现阶段政府承担的水环境治理责任进行研究,归纳出其环境治理责任主要有财政责任、制度责任、监管责任和社会整合责任.然后对水环境治理中政府责任存在的现实问题进行深入分析,揭示其问题主要表现为:责任主体边界模糊、责任分布以“行政”为主导、责任履行中“越位”与“缺位”并存、责任种类中重直接投入轻间接引导.最后,提出水环境治理中的政府责任应该在坚持财权与事权统一、政府主导与责任分担统一、制度设计、监管与实施合理分离、政府引导与社会参与相结合的原则基础上,按照分类、分项、分级来构建转型期水环境治理中政府的应然责任框架体系.     

美国离境外包经济动向的环境影响

最近美国离境外包经济发展很快，并引发继第一次产业革命（即工业革命）和第二次产业革命（即服务业超过制造业）之后的第三次产业革命，进而美国大批制造业向国外转移。这对我国承接制造业的产业转移是重大机遇，但同时也会遇到污染、能源转移的问题。建议我国抓住机遇，保持和发挥人力资源优势，迅速发展制造业，同时积极应对环境影响，分类管理，严格执法。     

Pathways of system transformation: Strategic agency to support regime change

There is a well-recognised need to transform existing systems of production and consumption towards a more sustainable orientation. However, there is much uncertainty about how to achieve sustainability transitions in practice, and what transition advocates and actors can do to catalyse and steer regime transformation. We therefore need evidence of how transitions are operationalised, in order to better understand the on-ground dynamics of regime change. To address this gap, this research paper examines three contemporary cases of transformational change in the Australian urban water sector and the dominant strategic approach to change adopted in each city. It focuses on the strategic behaviour of actors, in particular examining how agents navigate and respond to the opportunities and constraints of their context, and what initiatives (or combination thereof) can facilitate innovation diffusion and regime transformation. The results reveal three distinct patterns of change, each of which favour particular strategic interventions by transition proponents.In order to incubate transformational change, the results suggest that actors may be best served by initially employing strategies that are immediately compatible with their existing context. However, examination of the strengths and weaknesses of each pattern confirm that no single strategic approach is in itself sufficient, and in order to embed a novel innovation and bring about regime change, actors will eventually need to broaden the range of interventions used. The results also reveal the possibility of a ‘pattern-dependence’ that actors need to deliberately work to overcome in order to fully mainstream the desired change. These findings therefore provide insight into the links between regime transformation, patterns of change and actor strategies while also offering practical guidance that can be used to inform the design and implementation of regime transformation agendas and programs.     

Adaptive co-management and network learning in the Room for the River programme

Adaptive co-management and learning are paramount for integrated flood risk management. Relevant literature focuses on adaptation at the level of physical and societal systems. The level of projects and programmes is largely overlooked, but they comprise interventions that adapt our physical systems and they provide opportunities for learning to contribute to transitions of societal systems. This paper aims to increase understanding on how learning takes place and can be stimulated within a programme. The mixed-method case study of Room for the River, a €2.3 billion programme for flood risk management, shows that a programme can be organised using various governance arrangements to stimulate learning and be a means for adaptive co-management to deliver upon environmental objectives.     

Deflagration to detonation transition in a vapour cloud explosion in open but congested space: Large scale test

The paper reviews large scale experiments with various fuels in air where successful deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) took place. This includes a recent experiment disclosed in the Buncefield R&D program, where DDT developed in the propane/air mixture. The DDT occurred in branches of deciduous trees in a premixed stagnant mixture. An internal R&D investigation programme was initiated to better understand the phenomena. A large scale experiment in an open space with ethane air mixture is presented in the paper. The premixed mixture was ignited at the edge of the congested three-dimensional rigs which consisted of vertical and horizontal pipes. After ignition, the flame accelerated in the congestion and transitioned to detonation at the end of congestion. Stable detonation propagated through the remaining open and uncongested space.The flame acceleration process leading to DDT is scale dependent. It also depends on many parameters leading to a large investigation array and, significant cost. However, such R&D efforts aimed toward a safer plant design, i.e. the prevention of occurrence of a major accident, are a small fraction of a real accident cost.     

The role of rural communities in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland: a review

The Scottish Government is committed to carbon reduction targets which are the most ambitious across the devolved administrations of the UK. Whilst Scotland operates within broader international and UK policy contexts, it has developed particular programmes and approaches to engage communities in the transition towards low-carbon futures. Rural areas have a role in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland; however, beyond land use and agriculture contributions, little research has explored the “rural” dimension of “low-carbon” transitions. The paper presents a policy and literature review relating to the low-carbon agenda in Scotland. It reflects on Scottish low-carbon policy and governance, the positioning of “rural communities” within this, and the opportunities and challenges this might present. Based on this, we develop an understanding of how rural communities may contribute to a low-carbon Scotland and identify a future research agenda to explore in more detail the nature and relative effectiveness of diverse governance structures to support this.     

Sustainable regeneration: a guiding vision towards low-carbon transition?

While the concept of sustainable development brings together concepts of economic, environmental and social sustainability, much has been said regarding inherent tensions between them. Conflicts between economic and environmental objectives, in particular, have been noted as restraining efforts to instigate transitions to environmental sustainability, with growth ambitions limiting environmental policy to “win–win” cases. This paper argues that they can also play complementary roles in managing transitions by creating inclusive visions for rallying actors and resources. This is explored by looking at a case of sustainable regeneration in Wales, UK. Using as a case study the Arbed scheme, an area-based project established in 2009 to retrofit housing stock for energy efficiency, this paper shows how the scheme explicitly addresses economic, environmental and social aspects of sustainability; and, in particular, how sustainable development aims constituted a guiding vision that supported the formation of actor and resource networks necessary for large-scale retrofitting.     

Towards a governance of sustainable consumption transitions: how institutional factors influence emerging local food systems in Belgium

System innovations and transitions in the realm of sustainable consumption policies will seldom emerge automatically from the present socio-political and socio-technical contexts. This paper explores a set of perspectives related to the governance of transitions and develops their application to the relatively unexplored governance of sustainable consumption transitions. Empirical material stems from an extensive case study which analyses a food consumption niche in the form of collectively organised local food systems (LFS) in Belgium. More specifically, we analyse and discuss the institutional contexts and socio-political configurations within which the investigated system innovation cases are embedded. The results explore the role of governmental interplay in fostering innovative consumption practices for a transition towards a more sustainable, autonomous, citizen-based, LFS.