When may road fatalities start to decrease?

Introduction

The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints.

Method

The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level.

Results

Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns.

Impact on industry

Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries.

Conclusions

Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven).     

基于文献计量的锑对农作物影响研究趋势

为了明确锑对农作物影响领域的研究现状和发展趋势,基于Web of Science数据库,检索了1991~2021年该领域的文献,利用文献计量学软件CiteSpace对年发文量、发文国家/地区、研究机构以及关键词共现网络、突显关键词、文献共被引网络和关键文献进行了可视化分析,并总结了未来研究发展趋势.结果显示：1991~2021年,本研究领域发文量整体呈快速增长模式,中国、美国、巴西、印度、意大利、西班牙等发文量较多,是推动该领域发展的主要国家.中国科学院和中国农业科学院是全球发文数量排名前10的中国研究机构,占总发文量的10.5%.基于关键词共现网络及突显词分析,锑对农作物的影响研究从主要考虑农作物生长、产量和品质的影响研究发展到考虑土壤、作物、水体、沉积物等环境中锑的迁移转化机制研究,土壤微生物群落活性的响应机理以及锑对人类健康的风险评价研究成为近年来的研究热点.     

Rural vehicle emission as an important driver for the variations of summertime tropospheric ozone in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2014–2019

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) pollution is increasing in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region despite a significant decline in atmospheric fine aerosol particles (PM_2.5) in recent years. However, the intrinsic reason for the elevation of the regional O₃ is still unclear. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric O₃ and relevant pollutants (PM_2.5, NO₂, and CO) in the BTH region based on monitoring data from the China Ministry of Ecology and Environment during the period of 2014–2019. The results showed that summertime O₃ concentrations were constant in Beijing (BJ, 0.06 µg/(m³•year)) but increased significantly in Tianjin (TJ, 9.09 µg/(m³•year)) and Hebei (HB, 6.06 µg/(m³•year)). Distinct O₃ trends between Beijing and other cities in BTH could not be attributed to the significant decrease in PM_2.5 (from -5.08 to -6.32 µg/(m³•year)) and CO (from -0.053 to -0.090 mg/(m³•year)) because their decreasing rates were approximately the same in all the cities. The relatively stable O₃ concentrations during the investigating period in BJ may be attributed to a faster decreasing rate of NO₂ (BJ: -2.55 µg/(m³•year); TJ: -1.16 µg/(m³•year); HB: -1.34 µg/(m³•year)), indicating that the continued reduction of NO_x will be an effective mitigation strategy for reducing regional O₃ pollution. Significant positive correlations were found between daily maximum 8 hr average (MDA8) O₃ concentrations and vehicle population and highway freight transportation in HB. Therefore, we speculate that the increase in rural NO_x emissions due to the increase in vehicle emissions in the vast rural areas around HB greatly accelerates regional O₃ formation, accounting for the significant increasing trends of O₃ in HB.     

Estimation of spatiotemporal trends in bat abundance from mortality data collected at wind turbines

Renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, are essential tools for reducing the causes of climate change, but wind turbines can pose a collision risk for bats. To date, the population-level effects of wind-related mortality have been estimated for only 1 bat species. To estimate temporal trends in bat abundance, we considered wind turbines as opportunistic sampling tools for flying bats (analogous to fishing nets), where catch per unit effort (carcass abundance per monitored turbine) is a proxy for aerial abundance of bats, after accounting for seasonal variation in activity. We used a large, standardized data set of records of bat carcasses from 594 turbines in southern Ontario, Canada, and corrected these data to account for surveyor efficiency and scavenger removal. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate temporal trends in aerial abundance of bats and to explore the effect of spatial factors, including landscape features associated with bat habitat (e.g., wetlands, croplands, and forested lands), on the number of mortalities for each species. The models showed a rapid decline in the abundance of 4 species in our study area; declines in capture of carcasses over 7 years ranged from 65% (big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus]) to 91% (silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]). Estimated declines were independent of the effects of mitigation (increasing wind speed at which turbines begin to generate electricity from 3.5 to 5.5 m/s), which significantly reduced but did not eliminate bat mortality. Late-summer mortality of hoary (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), and silver-haired bats was predicted by woodlot cover, and mortality of big brown bats decreased with increasing elevation. These landscape predictors of bat mortality can inform the siting of future wind energy operations. Our most important result is the apparent decline in abundance of four common species of bat in the airspace, which requires further investigation.     

基于DFA的无定河径流长期变化趋势及持续性研究

河川径流量的变化对水资源的开发利用和国民经济的发展具有很大的影响。采用K0lmogorov—Smimov检验方法对无定河流域两个主要水文站赵石窑站和白家川站逐月径流量序列进行正态性检验,在此基础上运用DFA分析方法,估算两站时间序列的研示度指数,预测该流域径流量的未来变化趋势及其持续性,并采用随机重排法对估算结果进行了稳定性检验。分析结果显示：赵石窑和自家川两站径流时间序列的a标度指数分别为0．52和0．56,均大于0．5,径流时间序列表现为较强的长程依赖性,表明无定河流域在过去近50a内径流量的总体上呈下降趋势,在未来一段时间内,还将持续一段时间。对原时间序列随机重排后,两站月径流序列的6α标度指数都变小,分别为0．48和0．49,接近于0．5,进一步证明原序列确实存在着标度不变性。研究结果对流域的水资源规划、管理与合理利用有帮助。     

粤港澳大湾区吸收性气溶胶的解析

为了解粤港澳（Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao,GHM）大湾区气溶胶污染现状,基于OMAERUV日产品数据,对粤港澳大湾区2008~2019年吸收性气溶胶指数（ultraviolet aerosol index,UVAI）的时空分布、未来趋势变化和潜在源区进行了分析,并对其影响因素进行了探讨.结果表明,GHM大湾区年时间序列上UVAI呈现出下降的趋势,年均下降为2.3%;月时间序列上从春季开始呈现倒"V"形,季节特征春季最高,冬、秋次之,夏季最低;空间上呈现中部区域一直属于高值区,12年年均UVAI高达0.35;UVAI分布在时间序列主要表现为可持续,有82.69%的区域在未来UVAI将呈现下降的趋势;GHM大湾区外部潜在源主要是东部工业产生的碳质源和海洋带来的生物源;UVAI潜在源区春季以碳质源和生物质源为主,夏季以生物质气溶胶源为主,秋季以碳质源占比最大,冬季沙尘性质气溶胶源有所增加;通过相关性分析,气溶胶和PM_2.5之间是相互依附的关系,工业生产活动是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分,降水可以降低大气中因工业生成所产生的气溶胶含量,第二产业活动在气温升高的情况下会加快气溶胶的生成.     

都匀市降水pH值的变化趋势及特征分析

ｐＨ值是衡量降水酸性的重要指标。本文研究了都匀市降水ｐＨ值的变化趋势，并对其酸性降水的特征进行分析，提出了保护大气质量，降低酸雨频率的对策建议。     

Temporal Trends in Water Chemistry in the Turkey Lakes Watershed Ontario,Canada, 1982-1999

The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) was established in 1980 as asite for study of the ecosystem effects of acidic deposition, andsince then there has been 40% reduction in North AmericanSO₂ emissions. Monitoring records for bulk deposition,shallow and deep ground water, two headwater streams and two lakeoutflows have been tested to identify statistically significantmonotonic trends. The TLW appears to be responding to decliningacidifying emissions because the most prevalent chemical trendacross sample types/stations was decreasing SO₄ ^2-. Increasing pH was detected in four of the seven data sets, butonly the H⁺ decrease in bulk deposition was of a magnitudeto be an important ionic compensation for the SO₄ ^2-decline. There is little evidence of acidification recovery inTLW waters however. Increasing alkalinity was found only in theoutflow of the penultimate lake of the basin, and in fact, deepground water and the other lake outflow had decreasing alkalinitytrends (i.e., continuing acidification). For the surface waterstations, the greater part of the ionic compensation fordeclining SO₄ ^2- was decreasing base cations, and as aresult, these waters are probably becoming more dilute with time,although only the headwater streams exhibited decliningconductivity. Five of seven data sets had increasing dissolvedorganic carbon concentrations. Increasing NO₃ ^- wasimportant in ground waters. Drought has strongly influencedtrends and delayed recovery by mobilizing S stored in catchmentwetlands and/or soils.     

HYDROLOGICAL AND GEOCHEMICAL TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE, 1975 TO 19991

ABSTRACT: Hydrological and geochemical spatial patterns and temporal trends were analyzed using U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) water quality data collected from 1975 to 1999 along the uppermost 600 km of the Rio Grande in Colorado and New Mexico. Data on discharge, specific conductivity (SC), total dissolved solids (TDS), pH, Ca²⁺, Na⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, HCO₃^?, SO₄^2‐, Cl^?, F^?, and SiO₂ came from six USGS stations ranging from the Colorado‐New Mexico border to below Albuquerque, New Mexico. Linear regression, Kendall's S, and Seasonal Kendall's S’ were used to detect trends, and ANOVA was used to analyze spatial differences between stations. Statistically significant increasing trends occurred in SC, TDS, Ca²⁺, Na⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, and F^?in the uppermost reaches, and significant decreasing trends of SC, TDS, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, HCO₃^?, and SO₄^2‐occurred at the lower stations around Albuquerque. Both fluoride concentrations and pH values increased at and below Albuquerque over the study period. Discharge data show an increasing trend across all stations. Spatially, data for dissolved substances show generally linear upstream to downstream increases in concentrations in the upper four stations, with several notable nonlinear increases at and below Albuquerque (SC, TDS, Na⁺, Cl^?). Significant increases in pH appear at and below Albuquerque, relative to upstream stations, probably due to improved sewage treatment.