THE CHUBB/BAUMAN METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE RECREATION POTENTIAL OF RIVERS: A CRITICAL REVIEW1

ABSTRACT: The Chubb/Bauman (Ch/B) method for making quantitative estimates of recreation potential for rivers is based on the 1968/ 69 Leopold method for quantitative assessment of the scenic beauty of rivers. Both use classifications of environmental variables as the database. Unlike the Leopold method, the classifications used in the Ch/B method consistently reflect human preferences. The Ch/B method collects information on 67 variables, and uses a computer program to produce estimates of potential for 16 common recreation activities. This critique evaluates selected concepts and procedures of the Ch/B method partly by comparison with other available methods of recreation resource inventory. It considers the validity and utility of numerical weighting of variables, the use of numbers derived from place in a classification, and the transformation process. The quantitative techniques of the method exhibit serious flaws. Much of the data produced by the method appears to be quantitative but in fact is not, and it does not produce truly quantitative estimates of recreation potential. Classifications of generalized geographic or environmental variables are shown to have serious defects as a basis for evaluation of recreational potential.     

Japan's develop-for-import policy

Much of the world's remaining mineral resources lie within the underdeveloped nations of the Third World. The current crisis of confidence characterized in international investment and trade in extractive resources has become detrimental to both the resource-rich developing countries and the resource-hungry industrialized countries. Japan is one nation that has developed a strategy to foster mutual trust and to restore confidence in the international extractive industries. This paper examines Japan's develop-for-import policy, ‘kaihatsu yunso’, and its design, implementation and effects on securing foreign resources supplies.     

PAST AND FUTURE OF ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: water resources supply and demand time series consist of several or all of the four basic characteristics: tendency, intermittency, periodicity and stochasticity. Their importance changes from one type of variables to another. Historic developments of analysis of time series in hydrology have varied significantly over the past, from the stress on search for periodicities and persistence in annual series to the emphasis on the series stochastic properties. Supply and demand series are often highly interrelated, which fact is most often neglected in planning water resources systems in general, and water storage capacities in particular. The future of series analysis in water resources will likely be by a joint use of physically-based structural analysis and the use of advanced methods of treating data by stochastic processes, statistical estimation and inference techniques. The most intriguing challenge of the future of this analysis may be the treatment of nonnormal, nonlinear and in general nonstationary hydrologic and water use time series. The proper treatment of complex multivariate processes will also challenge the specialists, especially for the purposes of transfer of information between data on variables at given points, or between data at several points of a given variable, or both.     

Use of a geographic information system for storm runoff prediction from small urban watersheds

The use of computer-assisted map analysis techniques for prediction of storm runoff from a small urban watershed in the United States is investigated. An automated procedure for calculating input parameters for the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method of predicting storm runoff volume and peak timing is presented. Advanced techniques of spatial analysis are used to characterize spatial coincidence, surface configuration and effective hydrologic distance. A limited verification of the automated procedure indicates that the model reasonably characterizes water flow. A sensitivity analysis of basin disaggregation suggests that the SCS method yields increased volume and peak discharge predictions as the watershed is divided into smaller and smaller subunits. As a means to demonstrate the practical application of the automated procedure, a simulation of the effects on surface runoff for a potential residential development is presented.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

Taxing mineral resource projects : Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and the Philippines

Within the context of a case study of three Asia/Pacific countries' mineral taxation regimes, this article examines the impact of individual fiscal instrucments, and the total fiscal package, on investor risk perceptions, investor returns and government receipts. It shows that under conditions of uncertainty and risk aversion on the part of investors, significant gains in expected government revenues can be achieved without seriously affecting the investors' ex-ante assessments of projects by a judicious selection and mix of fiscal instruments.     

Application of artificial neural networks for classification of uranium distribution in the Central Rand goldfield,South Africa

Mine tailings generate significant environmental impacts and contribute to water pollution. The Central Rand goldfield, South Africa is replete with gold mine tailings which have contributed significantly to water pollution as a result of acid mine drainage (AMD). Water quality is affected by mine tailings and spillages, especially from active slimes dams, currently reprocessed tailings, as well as footprints left behind after reprocessing. The release and distribution of uranium from these sites was studied. Correlation matrices show a strong link between different variables as a result of AMD produced. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify very influential variables which account for the pollution trends. Artificial neural networks (ANN) using the Kohonen algorithm were applied to visualise these trends and patterns in the distribution of uranium. High concentrations of this radionuclide were detected in streams in the vicinity of the tailings dumps, active slimes and reprocessing areas. The concentrations are reduced drastically in dams and wetlands as a result of precipitation and dilution effects.     

Measuring the wealth of nations

The sustainability of development is closely linked to changes intotal per capita wealth. This paper presents estimates of the wealth of nations for nearly 100 countries, broken down into produced assets, natural resources and human resources. While thelatter is the dominant form of wealth in virtually all countries,in low income natural resource exporters the share of natural resources in total wealth is equal to the share of produced assets. For low income countries in general, cropland forms thevast majority of natural wealth. The analysis suggests the process of development can be viewed as one of portfolio management: sustainable development entails saving the rents fromexhaustible resources, managing renewable resources sustainably,and investing savings in both produced assets and human resources.     

西藏尼洋河流域果树资源及其开发途径探讨

西藏尼洋河流域果树资源丰富,栽培果树有苹果、梨、桃、李、杏和葡萄等9种和90多个品种;野生果树有7科16属41种,目前利用程度低,开发潜力大。文中提出了该地区果树资源的开发途径,在尼洋河下游和雅鲁藏布江的扎绕乡至派乡之间段的河谷地上形成“Y”字型的水(干)果种植带,建设成为西藏的水(干)果生产基地,并对现有果园改造更新,充分利用野生水果资源,建立果品综合加工厂等以满足西藏市场对水果和果品的需要。     

我国寻找超大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床的潜力评估

国外早己发现了超大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床 ,但我国迄今尚末找到。我国有广泛分布的陆相火山岩 ,能否找到此类超大型铀矿床 ,这是当前火山岩铀矿地质工作者急待解决的重要课题。本文在剖析了世界上已发现的超大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床的成矿环境和成矿条件及我国大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床成矿特点的基础上 ,对我国陆相火山岩的时空分布规律及我国主要构造火山岩带成矿潜力作了评述 ,综合得出在我国找到超大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床是有可能的 ,并确认赣杭、南岭、燕辽、大兴安岭等构造火山岩带具备形成超大型陆相火山岩型铀矿床的地质条件。上述主要构造火山岩带与其它构造火山 ( -侵入 )岩带交汇重叠部位 ,是最有希望的突破区。