博斯腾湖水质矿化度模型及预测研究

根据博斯腾湖１９８５～１９９５年水质监测数据和出入湖水量等水文数据观测值，采用水质扩散模型和盐量平衡关系推导出博斯腾湖大湖区（简称博湖）水质矿化度模型，并预测了几种情况下博湖水质矿化度及近几年变化趋势，分析了影响博湖水质矿化度的主要因素，为博湖的近期和远期环境保护规划、环境管理等提供科学依据．     

金华市大气降水的化学组成特征及来源解析

对2004年大气降水样品监测资料的综合分析和研究表明,金华市降水样品pH值的分布范围在3.64~6.76之间,降水的酸雨率为79.3%。SO24-和NO-3是降水中主要的阴离子,分别占降水中阴离子总量的66.1%和21.7%。NH 4和Ca2 是降水中含量最高的阳离子,分别占阴离子总量的56.6%和33.4%。降水中这些离子的浓度水平一般比世界上其它地方高,但大大低于国内的北方地区。由于降水中缺乏足够的中和物质,大约76%的降水酸度被NH 4、Ca2 和K 等碱性成分中和。陆源型离子Ca2 、Mg2 和K 以及海盐性离子Na 和Cl-之间存在明显的相关关系,另外Ca2 和SO24-、Mg2 和SO24-、Mg2 和NO-3以及Mg2 和Cl-之间也可以观察到比较好的相关关系。土壤和海水的富集系数表明,研究区域的Ca2 和K 主要来源于岩石/土壤风化,SO24-和NO-3主要归因于人为活动的影响。     

2014—2018年洛阳市大气污染变化特征及影响因素研究

研究采用空气质量指数法对2014—2018年洛阳市大气污染变化特征进行了分析,构建了空气污染物浓度的影响指标体系,采用灰色关联法研究了空气污染物浓度与影响因子之间的关联度,得到了影响空气污染物浓度的主要指标因子,并提出了改善洛阳市空气质量的措施。结果表明:洛阳市空气质量指数类别主要为良和轻度污染。2014—2018年空气质量为优良的天数主要出现在春季、夏季和秋季,重度污染和严重污染主要出现在冬季。2018年PM₁₀、PM_2.5、NO₂、SO₂和CO这5项污染物浓度随时间变化呈"V"型,污染主要集中在1—5月和11—12月。O₃浓度随时间变化呈倒"V"型,污染主要集中在4—9月。研究期内PM_2.5、PM₁₀和O₃是主要污染物。市区总人口、工业(综合)能源消耗量、人均生产总值、城市机动车总数、城市房屋施工面积、人均公园绿地面积、建成区绿化覆盖率和一般工业固体废物产生量等8项指标因子与PM_2.5、PM₁₀和O₃的浓度表现出高关联度或较高关联度。     

祁连山北坡自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型组成及其影响因素

依据生活型(乔木、藤本、灌木、半灌木、多年生禾草、多年生杂类草和一二年生草本)和水分生态型(旱生、旱中生、中生和湿生)将祁连山北坡次生杨桦林28个调查样地中的81个物种划分为18种植物功能型(Plant functiontypes,PFTs),并通过典范对应分析(CCA)方法研究植物功能型与环境因子间的关系.结果表明:自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型主要集中在中生多年生杂类草(PFTs16)、湿生多年生杂类草(PFTs23)、旱中生多年生杂类草(PFTs9)和中生灌木(PFTs18)4个植物功能型上;乔、灌、草三层冠层特征和中生植物的大量出现,反映了群落植物生活型趋于复杂化和结构化,生态型逐渐向中生化方向演替的特点;土壤容重、有机碳和全氮含量主要影响植物的生活型分异特征,土壤含水量和林冠郁闭度是植物的水分生态型分异的主要环境因子,而坡位、坡度控制着群落植物总体分布格局的形成.图1表3参31     

Sustaining co-operation for coastal sustainability

Coastal-zone sustainability policies are socially constructed. It follows that their effective implementation depends on the sustainable voluntary co-operation of stakeholders with competing interests and priorities. No form of integrated coastal-zone management can nurture such co-operation as long as the objective is to determine ‘best’ policies, derived by expert-based rational analysis, instead of seeking to identify ‘correct’ policies, ones that can draw the maximum possible stakeholder support. The latter task requires a co-operative coastal-zone management that incorporates the relevant public discourse into the policy formation process in a direct, proactive and conflict minimizing manner. Towards this end, four major challenges are examined for maximizing the stakeholders' motivation for voluntary co-operation: (1) optimism about the level of optimism; (2) agenda setting; (3) value discourse; and (4) information and empowerment.     

Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services

The discount rate for cost-benefit analysis has to take account of future scarcity of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey growth model, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.     

Estrogen equivalent concentration of 13 branched para-nonylphenols in three technical mixtures by isomer-specific determination using their synthetic standards in SIM mode with GC-MS and two new diasteromeric isomers

Thirteen isomers of branched para-nonylphenols (para-NP) in three technical mixtures were isomer-specifically determined using their synthesized standards by SIM of structurally specific ions, m/z 135, 149 or 163 with GC–MS. Of the 13 isomers, four isomers, 4-(2,4-dimethylheptan-4-yl)phenol, 4-(4-methyloctan-4-yl)phenol, 4-(3-ethyl-2-methylhexan-2-yl)phenol (3E22NP) and 4-(2,3-dimethylheptan-2-yl)phenol synthesized for their determinations were first used as standard substances. The 13 isomers in the technical mixtures individually occurred at mass percent portion of more than 2%. The total mass percent portions in the mixtures from Tokyo Chemical Industry (TCI), Aldrich, and Fluka covered with 89 ± 2%, 75 ± 4% and 77 ± 2%, respectively. The abundance of 4-(3,6-dimethylheptan-3-yl)phenol in the three mixtures was the largest with 11.1 ± 2% to 9.9 ± 0.3%, while that of 4-(2-methyloctan-2-yl)phenol was the smallest with 2.9 ± 0.3% to 3.0 ± 0.2%. Additionally, structures of four new isomers of more than 1% portion present in a technical mixture were elucidated as two pairs of diastereomeric isomers: two types of 4-(3,4-dimethylheptan-4-yl)phenol (344NP) and those of 4-(3,4-dimethylheptan-3-yl)phenol (343NP). By estrogenic assay of 13 isomers with yeast estrogen screen system, the activity of 3E22NP was the highest, while that of 4-(3-methyloctan-3-yl)phenol was the least. Their relative activities to that of 3E22NP were individually calculated. Estrogenic equivalent concentrations of the three technical mixtures were predictively evaluated. The ratio of the EEC to the conventional concentration, total mass percent portions of the 13 isomers in technical mixtures were 0.208 for TCI, 0.206 for Aldrich and 0.205 for Fluka. The predicted estrogenic activity of measured concentration of para-NP in technical mixtures was approximately 5-fold greater than the measured estrogen agonist activity.     

基于量纲分析的转载点诱导气流影响因素分析与应用

为解决转载点粉尘污染问题,采用量纲分析法将影响转载点诱导风量的因素进行分类推演,建立转载系统诱导风量计算模型,并搭建转载点诱导气流实验装置,系统分析物料在转载过程中给料量、落料高差、下料管倾角和皮带运行速度等因素对产生诱导气流的影响,拟合得出转载点诱导风量计算模型的数学表达式。结果表明:转载点物料的给料量和落料高差是影响诱导风量的主要因素;对量纲分析所得模型利用实验数据进行拟合所得各参数系数的标准误差优于0.032 1,实验结果与数学模型计算结果误差小于9.48%。该计算模型可用于估算转载点诱导风量大小,为现场的粉尘治理及生产实践提供参考依据。     

成都地区气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子双变量模型

基于成都市2017年10～12月逐时的“干”气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数观测数据,结合该时段同时次的能见度（V）、相对湿度（RH）以及二氧化氮（NO₂）监测资料,利用“光学综合法”计算气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子,并探究了气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子单变量f（RH）模型的适用性及其改进方案.结果表明：幂函数、二次多项式、幂指函数形式的f（RH）模型在低RH条件下（RH<85%）均能很好地模拟气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子随RH的变化特征,但在高RH条件下（RH>85%）的模拟值会出现较大的偏差.黑碳质量浓度（C_BC）是影响气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子的另一关键变量,二者之间满足非线性关系.以RH和C_BC为自变量构建了气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子双变量f（RH,C_BC）模型,模型计算值和实测值之间的决定系数R²为0.763,平均相对误差MRE为14.28%.双变量模型f（RH,C_BC）的应用显著改善了气溶胶散射消光系数的模拟效果.     

火工品温湿度加速老化模型和算法研究

目的 研究对火工品适用的温湿度加速模型,以及加速系数计算程序,获取准确的温湿度加速系数外推公式.方法 通过分析国内外使用的各种双因素加速模型的适用性,确定火工品适用的温湿度加速模型,采用免费自由的开源统计分析软件——R软件,对通过加速试验获取的某点火头2种温湿度加速条件下的试验数据,进行单组数据拟合和多组数据拟合两种温湿度加速老化算法的开发,并且对2种算法、3种寿命分布下寿命外推的准确性进行对比分析.结果 确定了Peck模型适合用于火工品的温湿度加速模型,获取了某电点火头对应的温湿度加速系数和湿度项反应速率常数.结论 基于多组数据拟合的温湿度加速老化算法,比基于单组数据拟合的温湿度加速老化算法对试验数据的兼容性好.3种寿命分布中,Weibull分布的加速系数计算结果最保守.