我国台风灾害救助应急响应的时空分布特征

基于2005 - 2010年历次台风灾害救助应急响应的启动和损失情况,在统计分析响应频次和响应灾情的基础上,研究分析了国家台风灾害救助应急响应的时空分布特征.结果表明,国家台风灾害救助应急响应的时空分布特征大致反映了我国重大台风灾害损失的时空分布特征和我国台风灾害救助工作的发展变化和新思路:①2005 - 2010年,国家共针对24次台风过程启动救助应急响应51次,平均每年8.5次,其中四级、三级响应分别为41次、10次,平均每年6.8次、2.5次,分别占80％和20％.②7-9月国家启动台风应急响应最多,10月、5月和4月偶有分布.③近年重大台风损失2005 - 2006年严重,2007 - 2010年则较轻;国家针对台风灾害启动响应从东南沿海向内陆和北方沿海省份递减.④紧急转移安置人口是启动响应依据最多的指标,且呈现明显的逐年下降趋势,反映了近年来国家对台风灾害救助工作的重视和以“预防为主”的应急管理新思路.     

混凝土大坝震害评估模型的研究及对黄河上游大坝的分析

利用前人所编的历代(共四代)地震烈度(地震动)区划图,组合叠加后得到一个综合烈度(地震动)。这种叠加是一个集成的专家系统综合认识结果,以此作为坝体可能遭受地震破坏危险的因素。初步研究建立了混凝土大坝震害评估模型,此模型是考虑了坝体的结构类型、建设年代、使用现状、场地条件、抗震设防水平等因素,用逐步线性拟合方法进行回归分析得到的。用此模型对汶川地震破坏的坝体进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合实际。最后,用这个模型对黄河上游10座重点混凝土大坝做了震害评估分析。     

Detection of dicofol and related pesticides in human breast milk from China, Korea and Japan

Previously, we demonstrated that the concentrations of DDTs were greater in breast milk collected from Chinese mothers than from Japanese and Korean mothers. To investigate dicofol as a possible source of the DDTs in human breast milk, we collected breast milk samples from 2007 to 2009 in China (Beijing), Korea (Seoul, Busan) and Japan (Sendai, Takarazuka and Takayama). Using these breast milk samples, we quantified the concentrations of dichlorobenzophenone, a pyrolysis product of dicofol (simply referred to as dicofol hereafter), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs) using GC-MS. Overall, 12 of 14 pooled breast milk samples from 210 mothers contained detectable levels of dicofol (>0.1 ng g⁻¹ lipid). The geometric mean concentration of dicofol in the Japanese breast milk samples was 0.3 ng g⁻¹ lipid and significantly lower than that in Chinese (9.6 ng g⁻¹ lipid) or Korean breast milk samples (1.9 ng g⁻¹ lipid) (p < 0.05 for each). Furthermore, the ΣDDT levels in breast milk from China were 10-fold higher than those from Korea and Japan. The present results strongly suggest the presence of extensive emission sources of both dicofol and DDTs in China. However, exposure to dicofol cannot explain the large exposure of Chinese mothers to DDTs because of the trace levels of dicofol in the ΣDDTs. In the present study, dicofol was confirmed to be detectable in human breast milk. This is the first report to identify dicofol in human samples.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in marine fish from four areas of China

The levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined in marine fish from four areas of China (South China Sea, Bohai Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea) using GC/NCI-MS and GC/ITMS, respectively. Total concentrations of eight PBDEs (BDE-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154, 183 and 209) in all samples ranged from 0.3 ng g⁻¹ ww (wet weight) to 700 ng g⁻¹ ww, with median and mean values of 85 ng g⁻¹ ww and 200 ng g⁻¹ ww, respectively. BDE-209 and BDE-47 were the major congeners in all samples, contributing 54% and 19% to the total concentration, respectively. The sum of seven indicator PCB levels (CB-28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153, and 180) ranged from 0.3 ng g⁻¹ ww to 3.1 μg g⁻¹ ww, with median and mean values of 6.4 ng g⁻¹ ww and 398 ng g⁻¹ ww, respectively. High contributions of CB-138 (32%) and CB-153 (25%) were found in all samples. In general, pollutants measured in this study were at high levels when compared with previous studies from other regions in the world. The relative abundance of BDE-209 may suggest that deca-BDE sources existed in studied area. And principal component analysis (PCA) showed that there were other PBDE sources in Yellow Sea. The pattern and PCA showed that PCB pollutions came from similar sources in the studied areas. In addition, concentrations of ∑₇PBDEs (u/209) were strongly correlated with those of ∑₇PCBs in all fish (r = 0.907, n = 44).     

湖北省"两圈"生物资源生态足迹动态分析

本文对1998-2008年湖北省武汉城市圈和鄂西生态文化旅游圈的生物资源生态足迹及其组成、人均生物资源生态足迹、生物资源生态承载量和生物资源生态赤字(盈余)进行了动态分析.研究表明,武汉城市圈生物资源生态足迹组成以耕地为主,其他生态生产性用地的足迹比例较小,各市州生物资源生态足迹整体呈现逐年增加的趋势,人均生物资源生态足迹小于省均值,生物资源生态承载量先升高后降低,各市州生物资源生态承载量由大到小排序为:黄冈、孝感、武汉、咸宁、天门、黄石、仙桃、鄂州、潜江,生态赤字呈增大趋势;鄂西生态圈除神农架外其他各市州的生物资源生态足迹均较大,林地足迹占主要地位,其总量对全省的贡献较大;人均生物资源生态足迹大于省均值,生物资源生态承载量呈增高趋势,各市州由大到小排序为:宜昌、十堰、襄樊、荆州、恩施、随州、荆门、神农架,该圈一直保持很高的生物资源生态盈余,但盈余值有减小的趋势.     

中国西部矿产资源产业集聚度与竞争力研究

促进矿产资源产业集聚是推动我国西部矿产资源产业发展的主要路径之一,开展我国西部矿产资源产业集聚度与产业竞争力相关性的研究可以为西部矿产资源产业竞争力提升提供相关决策指导.为分析矿产资源产业集聚对矿产资源产业竞争力和区域经济的推动作用,本文选取区位熵反映矿产资源产业集聚度,具体地,选择企业数量区位熵反映矿产资源产业区域集聚度.选取产业产值区位熵反映矿产资源产业经济集聚度;矿产资源产业竞争力则选取产值利润率借以反映.通过衡量我国西部9个矿产资源产业的区域集聚度、经济集聚度和产值利润率,得出我国西部大部分矿产资源产业仍停留于企业"扎堆"的区域集聚,经济集聚不足,尤其是下游加工业,这导致我国西部矿产资源产业集聚效应难以充分发挥,产值利润率低下;进一步的相关性分析表明,西部矿产资源产业集聚度与产业竞争力正相关,且经济集聚对产业竞争力的推动作用更强.因而,不仅要发展下游加工业,而且要提高产业集聚度尤其是经济集聚度,以更有效地推动我国西部矿产资源产业竞争力的提升.     

城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析

居民家庭生活能源消费与碳排放越来越不容忽视,开展这方面研究对于促进居民可持续消费、寻找新的节能减排途径都具有十分重要的意义.本文在考察量化1999-2007年中国城镇居民生活直接、间接能源消费及其碳排放连续变化的基础上,探究了这段时期生活能耗与碳排放的动态变化特征,并分析其潜在的影响因素.研究主要结论包括:1999-2007年,中国城镇居民人均生活总能耗和碳排总量都呈现出逐年增加趋势,其中间接能耗与碳排始终大于直接能耗与碳排,但二者的差异正在逐年缩小;对于人均直接能耗与碳排来说,二者总量都呈逐年增加趋势,其中电力和煤炭是最主要的直接能源消费品种,也是最主要的碳排来源;对于人均间接能耗与碳排来说,虽然居民生活消费开支逐年递增,但由于各类消费项的单位产值能源强度在逐年下降,因此总的间接能耗与碳排并没呈现出一定的递增或递减趋势,而是出现波动性变化.其中"食品"、"教育文化娱乐服务"和"居住"3项是居民生活间接能耗与碳排的主要来源;人均住宅建筑面积是居民生活碳排变化的主要影晌因子.研究结论为引导可持续的家庭消费模式和节能减排措施的制定提供管理启示与科学依据.     

基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

使用投入产出法,利用1999 -2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳.研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因.1999 - 2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12％ -24％是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的.中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业.这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80％左右.中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本.在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标;同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口.     

Polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) in riverine and marine sediments of the Laizhou Bay area, North China

PCN congeners were analyzed in marine and riverine sediments of the Laizhou Bay area, North China. Concentrations of PCNs ranged from 0.12 to 5.1 ng g⁻¹ dry weight (dw) with a mean value of 1.1 ng g⁻¹ dw. The levels of PCNs varied largely, with industrial group approximately ten folds higher than those of the rural in riverine sediment. A strong impact by direct discharge from local factories was suggested. Similar compositional profiles were found within groups. High resemblance of compositional profiles between industrial samples and Halowax 1014 was observed. It was indicated that PCNs in riverine sediments were mainly from release of industrial usage, with additional contributions from industrial thermal process at certain sites. In marine sediments, it was suggested that PCNs along the coast of Laizhou Bay were mainly controlled by riverine input. While in the central bay, PCN distributions were possibly impacted by combined multiple factors.     

Levels and distribution of Dechlorane Plus in coastal sediments of the Yellow Sea, North China

Dechlorane Plus (DP) has been determined in surface sediments from three Chinese coastal bays, e.g. Jiaozhou, Sishili and Taozi Bay in North China. DP concentrations ranged from <1.2 to 187 pg g⁻¹ dry weight (dw) (mean: 24.7 pg g⁻¹ dw) in Jiaozhou Bay, <1.2 to 135 pg g⁻¹ dw (mean 69.9 pg g⁻¹ dw) in Sishili Bay and <1.2 to 66.7 pg g⁻¹ dw (mean: 40.4 pg g⁻¹ dw) in Taozi Bay, respectively. Additionally, two dechlorinated species were quantified, which accounted for 0.6-5.1% of the ∑DP concentration.The f_syn values (syn-isomer/(syn- + anti-isomer)) in sediments from Jiaozhou Bay (mean 0.29) were close to the technical DP mixture (0.2-0.4), probably indicating local inputs of DP. In contrast, sediments in Sishili and Taozi Bay showed much lower f_syn values (mean 0.16). During transportation the DP isomers are subject to stereo selective degradation which partly resulted in the relative enrichment of anti-DP in coastal sediments.