未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度变化

选取中国亚热带地区273个气象站点1961-2005年逐日气象资料,结合IPCC SRES A2情景下未来亚热带地区温度、降水模拟数据,综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,对未来中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险性变化进行了研究。结果表明,中国亚热带地区柑桔风险度出现了不同速度和形式的趋势性变化,近46 a来,柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加最快;同时中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候风险性对全球气候变化的响应也存在着区域分异性,中国亚热带柑桔气候风险在其北部边缘地带和西部高山地区风险度是降低的,在中部和南部风险度是升高的,尤其以中部地带升高最快。     

国际标准产业分类体系的供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动的分类演化及启示

国际标准产业分类体系是目前国际上最有影响、最有权威的产业分类体系。深入了解国际标准产业分类体系中供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动分类演化,对正确收集、处理和测算供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动的指标以及国际间数据比较至关重要。论文首先详细地剖析了国际标准产业分类体系的供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动的分类演化,然后依据国际标准产业分类体系的最新变化,结合我国供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动现状,为我国国民经济行业分类中供水、污水处理、废物管理和补救活动的修改和调整提供改进建议。     

基于SCI发文的中国生态学研究态势文献计量分析

采用文献计量学的方法,基于《科学引文索引》数据库近十年的检索结果,定量分析中国生态学领域发文的主题、时间、作者、机构、合作国家、被引频次、期刊分布等数据,系统分析中国生态学领域近十年的研究发展态势、研究热点、研究投入主体、国际合作和研究水平等趋势和特征。基于检索得到的3316篇SCI论文数据,研究认为：我国生态学领域的研究发展迅速。研究的热点主要是分子标记、气候变化、生物多样性、土地利用、分类学、物种、草原、荒漠化、模型、多态性等方面。研究主题的关联性随时间有增加的趋势。588个第一作者发文机构中,中国科学院发文量最高,大学近年的研究发展迅猛。生态学领域篇均作者人数是2.2人。国际合作的主要国家是美国。我国生态学研究的SCI发文篇均被引频次为6。第一作者机构为中国机构的论文被引用情况逊于外国机构。中国生态学领域研究最重要的发文期刊是ECOLOGICAL MODELLING和JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS。     

热带增宽及其对中国东部亚热带森林植被的影响

全球气候变暖已是不争的事实,现今气候变暖的趋势已由每百年（1901--2000）增加0．6℃的记录升高为0．74℃（1906—2005）。其中高纬度地区增温特别显著,成为世界关注的热点。与之对比,热带地区的气候变化以及热带森林对它的反应报道甚少。事实上,自1970s中期以来,热带温度是每lO年升高0．26oC;同时气候模型预测到本世纪末热带地区温度将上升2．1-4．5℃。这些预测是有根据的,但究竟不是直接的证据。因此,本文综合了许多专家对热带地球物理学和大气层特性的多年观测、分析和研究的成果,其结论认为：至少自1979年以来许多热带大气层固有的特征发生变化并向地球极地推进和位移,这些根据是：（1）热带高空的哈德利环流增强并向极地扩展;（21位于热带边缘的亚热带射流向极地移动;（3）热带亚热带对流层顶高度和位置的变化;（4）热带高空平流层臭氧柱总量浓度的变化。据上述特征的变化证明数十年来热带向极地增宽纬度2°～5°（～8°）,一般确认为2．5°。由于热带增宽的驱动,广东50年的气温记录表明气候持续变暖,按增暖趋势推算,预估到2020年,现在的雷州半岛南部可能变成中热带;广东东南沿海将由目前的南亚热带变为北热带（占全省面积约1／3）;其余大部分地区为南亚热带;中亚热带基本上将退出广东（仅剩下东北角一偶）。此预测意味着南岭地区将成为南亚热带的边缘地。     

小陇山自然保护区华山松群落8个主要种群的生态位研究

小陇山国家级自然保护区是中国华山松的主要分布区之一。在野外大量调查基础上,运用Levins和Shan-non-Wiener生态位宽度、生态位重叠和生态位相似比例等指数,对林区华山松群落中8个主要种群生态位特征进行研究。结果表明,生态位宽度值大小依次为华山松、锐齿栎、披针叶忍冬、漆树、甘肃山楂、毛栗、辽东栎和少脉椴。华山松Shannon-Wiener生态位宽度值最大,为0.988 8,其次是锐齿栎,为0.877 6,少脉椴最小,为0.352 9。该群落种群间生态位重叠值普遍较低,表明多数种群间竞争较小。建群种华山松与其他种群间生态位重叠值较大,为0.079 1~0.101 3,而其他种群与华山松间生态位重叠值却较小,为0.015 4~0.069 0,华山松与毛栗的重叠值最大,为0.101 3,华山松与少脉椴的重叠值最小,为0.079 1。生态位相似比例在0.5以上的种群对有4对,占14.28%,分别是华山松-锐齿栎、华山松-披针叶忍冬、锐齿栎-披针叶忍冬和锐齿栎-漆树种群对,在0.5以下的有24对,占85.72%,表明群落中多数种群对资源利用的相似性程度较小。作为中国华山松的分布地之一,秦岭西段小陇山林区具有暖...     

What factors determine whether a community will choose the pathway to sustainable development in China?

In this paper, we divide the communities in Central China into four groups, namely ecological high-poverty communities, non-ecological high-poverty communities, sustainable communities and non-ecological low-poverty communities. We use 2000 and 2006 data for 498 counties to conduct analysis and comparison between sustainable and unsustainable communities in order to define determinants of the development pathways to sustainable communities. The comparison of the variable means between the groups of ecological high-poverty communities and non-ecological high-poverty communities in 2006 indicates that there is no significant difference in the dimensions related to economy, society and environment, with the exception of average output value per industrial enterprise.

The non-ecological low-poverty communities are more likely to have a higher proportion of secondary industry, higher total industrial output value, higher average output value per industrial enterprise and higher intensity of infrastructure construction, compared to the sustainable communities. The factors that determine whether the communities will choose the pathway to sustainable communities are found to be landscape, social conditions of secondary industry and agriculture and economic development level. Hence, the policies that aim at promoting sustainability for the unsustainable communities will have to focus on different strategies and actions for non-ecological high-poverty and non-ecological low-poverty communities.     

Environmental Protection Bureau Leadership at the Provincial Level in China: Examining Diverging Career Backgrounds and Appointment Patterns

This paper analyses the career backgrounds of local government officials in provincial Environmental Protection Bureaus (EPBs) in China and explains the appointment patterns of Chinese EPB bureaucrats. Using biographical information of provincial EPB heads and drawing on fieldwork conducted in Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia, this paper finds that only one-fourth of the provincial EPB heads were promoted through the bureau ranks within the EPBs, while the remaining three-fourths were appointed from positions outside the environment field. Further, nearly all EPB heads' professional backgrounds and associated networks can be clearly categorized as environmental, business, provincial government, or local government oriented. This paper delineates these four types of Chinese EPB leaders and explains why an awareness of the different professional orientations is critical to understanding environmental regulation and protection in China. These findings have implications for inferring the unique characteristics of a province's EPB leadership, the implementation capacities of provincial EPBs, and the appointment preferences of provincial leaders.     

软土沉降位移作用下大口径管道轴向应力状态研究*

为准确掌握大口径管道的轴向应力应变状态,保障管道的安全运行,通过假定4类不同形式的软土沉降位移,研究不同沉降形式对管道轴向应力状态的影响。采用非线性有限元方法建立管道轴向应力应变参数化数值计算模型,开展影响因素分析。结果表明:针对软土沉降位移作用下1 422 mm X80大口径管道,沉降量相同时,突变型位移载荷作用下管道受到的轴向应力最大,最大轴向应力位于两侧非沉降区距管道中心约53 m处;软土沉降量达到工程实际中可能的最大值1 m时,大口径X80管道内轴向应力小于0.9倍管材屈服强度,管道环焊缝可以采用基于应力的工程适用性评估方法开展ECA(Engineering Critical Assessment)评价。     

Middle-Eocene artiodactyls from Shanghuang (Jiangsu Province,Coastal China) and the diversity of basal dichobunoids in Asia

A new assemblage of basal dichobunoid artiodactyls from the middle-Eocene Shanghuang fissure fillings includes the diacodexeid Jiangsudon shanghuangensis gen. and sp. nov., a new species of the lantianine dichobunoid Elaschitotherium, Elaschitotherium crepaturus sp. nov., and an indeterminate suoid which is presently the earliest record of this clade. Diacodexeids are also represented by two forms provisionally referred to cf. Diacodexis sp. and to an indeterminate Diacodexeidae, respectively. The occurrence of diacodexeids in Shanghuang contrasts with the early and earliest middle-Eocene chronological range of the family in Europe and North America and suggests that the stratigraphic range of the family in Asia extends up to the middle Eocene. This may reflect particular habitats in coastal China that may have been relatively stable during the early and middle Eocene, thus preserving forest-dwelling artiodactyls that became extinct in the other Holarctic regions. Compared to other supposedly coeval North American, European, and Asian faunas, the Shanghuang mammalian assemblage is most similar to early Uintan faunas of North America but is also remarkable in recording forms close to taxa that are characteristic of the Wasatchian and Bridgerian North American Land Mammal Ages. The Irdinmanhan age of the Shanghuang fauna is supported by the mammalian assemblage recovered from the fissure D, but an Arshantan age cannot be completely ruled out at this point. Although the Shanghuang assemblage is biased towards preservation of small components of the mammalian fauna, the Shanghuang fauna provide an important and unique window into the Eocene diversity and early evolution of cetartiodactyls in eastern Asia.     

世界自然遗产地面临的威胁及中国的保护对策

中国的自然遗产事业方兴未艾,但自然遗产地的保护状况令人担忧。论文以广泛的基础资料收集为前提,分析论证了自然遗产地保护的完整性原则,并对全球范围内世界自然遗产地的威胁因素进行了定量化统计评价。结合中国世界自然遗产地的保护状况,提出了中国自然遗产地的保护对策。