结构变动、技术进步以及价格对能源效率的影响

本文旨在分析中国工业化进程中影响能源消耗及其效率的主要因素。通过理论研究,我们认为经济结构、技术进步以及能源市场化改革是中国工业化进程中的主要影响因素。从这些影响因素的作用机理来看,经济结构与工业化阶段密切相关,对能源效率的影响是一个长期的过程;而在经济结构相对稳定的短期内,技术进步是提升能源效率的重要因素;在市场经济条件下,能源价格是提高能源效率的长期而稳定的激励机制。在此基础上,我们综合利用1990-2006年省际、四大区域、13个主要工业省区面板数据,以及工业行业数据,实证估计这些因素对能源效率的影响程度。几个估计结果综合显示,这三大因素对中国工业化进程中的能源效率具有重要的影响作用。这意味着当前节能减排的政策重点必须立足于长期,谨慎采用单纯的节能降耗这种行政命令式的短期策略,重点采用基于激励机制的治理策略,弱化长期以来形成的高耗能技术结构,引导节能环保型技术的创新与扩散。     

Discussion on the Regional Division of the Development Stage of China's Wind Power

This paper constructs the index system of the regional division of the development stage of China's wind power resourc-es, including the index of energy, the index of wind energy endow-ments and other indices. Based on principal component analysis and layered clustering analysis of these indices, and combined with the conceptual function of the development and utilization stage of the wind power, this paper divides the development and utilization stage of the wind power into four stages taking province as the basic yardstick: optimization growth stage, the rapid growth stage,the slow growth stage and the initial growth stage. In addition, this paper briefly discusses the basic strategy that should be adopted in each development stage of wind power resources.     

中美环境污染事故应急预案编制指南比较研究

重点选取中国和美国典型的应急预案编制指南为依据,根据基本情况调查、事故现场调查、应急响应、应急培训和演习等视角分析二者的相似之处,从编制详细程度、私人组织响应、家庭通信系统、信息公开等方面识别出中国相关应急预案编制指南中存在的主要问题。借鉴美国应急预案编制指南中适合于中国国情的经验,建议应急预案编制指南要详细具体,重视疏散路线和安置场所,将私人响应组织列入预案编制指南相关内容中,同时加强信息对社会和媒体的公开。     

中美校园安全文化对比研究

通过安全文化、校园安全文化的结构层次理论综述及校园安全的影响因素剖析,提出校园安全文化5层次理论,即心态安全文化层、行为安全文化层、制度安全文化层、物态安全文化层、和谐安全文化层,为科学构建和谐校园提供理论支撑。依据校园安全文化5层次理论对中美校园安全文化进行比较分析,其结果显示,中美两国校园安全文化表现为差异性与趋同性,两国校园安全文化在一定时期内可以保持一定的稳定性,但随着两国文化交流的逐步深入,其差异性正在缩小,出现相互融合的良性发展趋势。从建设和谐社会的实践角度来看,笔者提出建设和谐校园对形成具有中国特色的校园安全文化具有重大的推进作用。     

基于成本分析的西部生态补偿法律机制研究

建立和实施西部生态补偿机制,是加强西部生态建设和强化西部生态功能专业化服务的必由之路。生态系统服务补偿理论和自然资本理论为我们分析西部生态补偿提供了新的分析范式,西部生态补偿包括国家补偿、区域和流域补偿、自力补偿三个层次。其内部的成本关系包括生态服务利用成本关系、跨区域资源调配成本关系、生态工程实施成本关系、内部补偿成本关系等,基于成本分析基础上的三层次补偿关系协同发展是完善西部生态补偿法律机制的基本内容。     

我国南方主要酸沉降区临界负荷研究

以马尾松为指示植物,对韶关的土壤进行了长期淋溶模拟并记录其化学状态。结果发现,土壤溶液的pH值下降到4.0,Bs值下降到几乎为零,有较大量的A1离子溶出。最后选取土壤溶液pn〉4.0、KS〉10％和[Al^3＋]〈0.1mmol／L为临界化学指标,参考国内外应用广泛的MAGIC模型和SMART模型,确定韶关酸沉降临界负荷（S的临界负荷）为14.1keq／hm^2.a。     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(RD)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

中国东部地区的地震灾害及对策初探

地震是一种自然现象,有其明显的自然属性,而地震灾害则具有明显的社会属性。地震灾害是相对于人类活动而言的。本文借用胡焕庸线,将中国大陆分成东区和西区两个区,并初步探讨了人口稠密和经济发达的中国东部地区的防震减灾对策。     

Evaluating Controlling Factors to Ali/(Ca + Mg) Molar Ratio in Acidic Soil Water, Southern and Southwestern China: Multivariate Approach

Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water has been used as an indicator to the effects of acid deposition on terrestrial ecosystems. However, the main factors controlling this ratio have not been well documented in southern and southwestern China. In this study, we presented the variation in inorganic aluminum (Al_i) and Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in different sites and soil horizons based on two to three years monitoring data, and evaluated the main factors controlling Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio using principle component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regression. Monitoring data showed although Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratios in most soil water were lower than assumed critical 1.0, higher molar ratios were found in some soil water at TSP and LXH site. Besides acid loading, both soil properties and soil water chemistry affected the value of Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water. Partial least square (PLS) indicated that they had different relative importance in different soil horizons. In A-horizon, soil aluminum saturation (AlS) had higher influence on Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio than soil water chemistry did; higher soil aluminum saturation (AlS) led to higher Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water. In the deeper horizons (i.e., B₁-, B₂- and BC-horizon), inorganic aluminum (Al_i) in soil water had more and more important role in regulating Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio. On regional scale, soil aluminum saturation (AlS) as well as cation exchange capacity (CEC) was the dominant factor controlling Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio. This should be paid enough attention on when making regional acid rain control policy in China.     

Simulated Effects of Acidic Solutions on Element Dynamics in Monsoon Evergreen Broad-leaved Forest at Dinghushan,China - Part 1: Dynamics of K,Na, Ca,Mg and P (7 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Acid deposition has become a concern in south China in recent years. This phenomenon has increased to a dramatic extent with the large use of cars and coal- fueled power plants. As a consequence, soils are becoming acidified and their element dynamics will change. A decrease in the nutrient availability will lead to slower plant growth and maybe to a change in the forest type with current species being replaced by new ones with less nutrient requirements. Because of these reasons, it is important to understand how the dynamics of elements will change and what mechanism is part of the process. This knowledge is important for modeling the acidification process and either finding ways to counter it or to predict its consequences. The primary purpose of this study was to provide information about how the dynamics of K, Na, Ca, Mg and P are affected by acid deposition in a typical forest in southern China. Materials and Methods: Experimental soils and saplings were collected directly from the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan. All saplings were transplanted individually into ceramic pots in August 2000 and placed in an open area near their origin site. Pot soils were treated weekly from October, 2000 to July, 2002 with an acidic solution at pH 3.05, pH 3.52, pH 4.00 or pH 4.40, or with tap water as a control. The concentrations of SO42-, NO3-, K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and available P and the pH were measured in soil and leachate samples taken at different times. The sapling leaves were collected and their element concentrations were measured at the end of the experiment. Results: Concentrations of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg decreased quickly over time, although only Ca showed changes with the acidic solution treatment and soil exchangeable K was stable because of soil weathering. Leaching of K, Mg and Ca was dependent upon the treatment acidity. Soil available P decreased slowly without any correlation with the acidity of the treatment. All the NO3- added by the treatment was taken up by the plants, but the SO42- added accumulated in the soil. Discussion: Amongst the plant species, Schima superba was little affected by the treatment, the leaf P content was affected in Acmena acuminatissima plants and Cryptocarya concinna was the most susceptible species to soil acidification, with a marked decrease of the leaf K, Ca and Mg concentrations when the treatment acidity increased. Conclusions: Simulated acid deposition affected the dynamics of K, Ca and Mg in the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest. The dynamics of Ca in the soil and of K, Mg and Ca in the soil leachates were affected by the acidic solution treatment. If such a soil acidification occurs, Cryptocarya concinna will be amongst the first affected species, but Schima superba will be able to sustain a good growth and mineral nutrition. Recommendations and Perspectives: Acid deposition will lead to imbalance the nutrient elements in the evergreen broad-leaved forest because of accelerated leaching losses of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg. Measures should be developed to slow down soil acidification or nutrient decrease.