我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.     

太浦河饮用水源地取水方式研究

太浦河是上海市青浦区第二自来水厂的水源地。自来水厂从河道直接取水,但河水部分水质未达水源地水质标准,不但加重了处理成本,也导致供水水质不能得到保证。傍河布井取水方式能自然净化水质,特别是能去除某些传统自来水厂直接净化河水不能去除的污染物质。通过分析太浦河地区水文地质及水质水量等,探讨了该研究区傍河布井取水的主要技术条件。结果显示在太浦河傍河布井取水,可获得比直接河道取水更为优良的水质,水量充足,且取水工程经济可行,有很好的开发利用前景。     

曝气生物滤池处理效果影响因素试验研究

曝气生物滤池具有占地面积小、处理效率高等特点而成为分散型污水处理技术的优先选择,为了进一步优化该工艺的运行控制,通过试验研究了有机负荷、水力停留时间、气水比等因素对曝气生物滤池处理效能的影响,结果表明曝气生物滤池对有机负荷、水力停留时间、气水比变化具有良好的适应能力。在温度为20℃～25℃时,COD负荷在1-4．5kg／m^3·d之间、气水比在3：1～10：1之间、水力停留时间在30min-60min之间时,COD去除效果良好,平均去除率可达85％。COD负荷、停留时间和气水比对硝化反应影响显著,增加COD负荷对反应器的硝化能力有明显的抑制作用,反应器需要充分硝化时的进水有机负荷应控制在1．5kgCOD／m^3·d以内较为合适。停留时间在30min-60min、气水比在3：1～10：1范围内变化时,NH4^＋-N去除率增加显著。     

苯并(a)芘在四种食用淡水鱼中的含量和分布

利用GC-MS测定了购自北京市场的4种食用淡水鱼(鲫鱼、胖头鱼、鲤鱼、草鱼)的5种组织器官(脑、肝、泡、卵和肌肉)中BaP的含量,分析了BaP在4种食用淡水鱼中的分布特征及其对人体的健康风险.结果表明,鱼体BaP湿重含量范围为0～0.057ng·g-1,BaP脂标化含量范围为0.02～21·22 ng˙g-1·BaP在不同组织器官和不同鱼种中的湿重含量差别不显著;而不同鱼种和组织器官中BaP脂标化含量则有一定的差异性.4种鱼中,胖头鱼BaP脂标化含量水平最高,鲫鱼次之,草鱼和鲤鱼较低;各组织器官中,肝脏的BaP脂标化含量相对最高,肉、泡、籽次之,脑中BaP脂标化含量相对最低.鱼体中BaP湿重含量均低于USEPA规定的可食用生物组织器官中BaP含量的上限值(0.67 ng·g-1,wetweight),对人体的致癌风险远小于10-5.     

含固率和接种比对林可霉素菌渣厌氧消化的影响

通过林可霉素菌渣的中温厌氧消化摇瓶实验,比较不同的含固率(3%、5%、8%、10%)和接种比(0.5、1、2、3)对菌渣产甲烷能力的影响,以确定菌渣厌氧消化的最优工艺条件.结果表明,在研究参数范围内,含固率越低,接种比越高,越有利于甲烷的产生;经过10d的培养,在含固率为3%、接种比为3时的工况中,菌渣的挥发性固体(VS)累计净产甲烷量最高,为106 mL/g;而含固率>5%、接种比2的液态发酵工艺,此条件既能保证厌氧消化不受消化产物(胺和挥发性有机酸)积累的抑制,也可以缓冲菌渣中残留林可霉素对消化微生物可能产生的抑制效应.     

Particle properties in granular activated carbon filter during drinking water treatment

The elemental composition and bacteria attached in particles were investigated during granular activated carbon (GAC) filtration.The experimental results showed that trapped influent particles could form new,larger particles on GAC surface.The sloughing of individuals off GAC surface caused an increase in effluent particles in the size range from 5 to 25 μm.The selectivity for element removal in GAC filters caused an increasing proportion of metallic elements in the effluent particles.The distribution of molar ratio indicated a complicated composition for large particles,involving organic and inorganic substances.The organic proportion accounted for 40% of total carbon attached to the particles.Compared with dissolved carbon,there was potential for the formation of trihalomethanes by organic carbon attached to particles,especially for those with size larger than 10 μm.The pure carbon energy spectrum was found only in the GAC effluent and the size distribution of carbon fines was mainly above 10 μm.The larger carbon fines provided more space for bacterial colonization and stronger protection for attached bacteria against disinfection.The residual attached bacteria after chorine disinfection was increased to 10 2-10 3 CFU/mL within 24 hours at 25°C.     

Autonomous emergency braking systems adapted to snowy road conditions improve drivers' perceived safety and trust

Objective: This study investigated drivers' evaluation of a conventional autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system on high and reduced tire–road friction and compared these results to those of an AEB system adaptive to the reduced tire–road friction by earlier braking. Current automated systems such as the AEB do not adapt the vehicle control strategy to the road friction; for example, on snowy roads. Because winter precipitation is associated with a 19% increase in traffic crashes and a 13% increase in injuries compared to dry conditions, the potential of conventional AEB to prevent collisions could be significantly improved by including friction in the control algorithm. Whereas adaption is not legally required for a conventional AEB system, higher automated functions will have to adapt to the current tire–road friction because human drivers will not be required to monitor the driving environment at all times. For automated driving functions to be used, high levels of perceived safety and trust of occupants have to be reached with new systems. The application case of an AEB is used to investigate drivers' evaluation depending on the road condition in order to gain knowledge for the design of future driving functions.

Methods: In a driving simulator, the conventional, nonadaptive AEB was evaluated on dry roads with high friction (μ = 1) and on snowy roads with reduced friction (μ = 0.3). In addition, an AEB system adapted to road friction was designed for this study and compared with the conventional AEB on snowy roads with reduced friction. Ninety-six drivers (48 males, 48 females) assigned to 5 age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, and 60–75 years) drove with AEB in the simulator. The drivers observed and evaluated the AEB's braking actions in response to an imminent rear-end collision at an intersection.

Results: The results show that drivers' safety and trust in the conventional AEB were significantly lower on snowy roads, and the nonadaptive autonomous braking strategy was considered less appropriate on snowy roads compared to dry roads. As expected, the adaptive AEB braking strategy was considered more appropriate for snowy roads than the nonadaptive strategy. In conditions of reduced friction, drivers' subjective safety and trust were significantly improved when driving with the adaptive AEB compared to the conventional AEB. Women felt less safe than men when AEB was braking. Differences between age groups were not of statistical significance.

Conclusions: Drivers notice the adaptation of the autonomous braking strategy on snowy roads with reduced friction. On snowy roads, they feel safer and trust the adaptive system more than the nonadaptive automation.     

管理者的威权领导风格对矿工安全行为的影响研究

矿工安全行为是煤矿安全生产的基础保障,而管理者的领导风格对矿工安全行为有重要影响。引入调节焦点理论和认同理论,构建威权领导风格对安全行为影响关系的理论模型。以544份调查问卷的数据对理论模型进行检验,结果发现:威权领导风格是影响矿工安全行为的重要情境因素;威权领导风格会通过矿工对管理者认同而正向影响安全行为,矿工对管理者认同在二者间具有中介作用;管理者-矿工间的调节焦点适配在矿工对管理者认同和安全行为之间有调节效应,而且调节焦点的高适配度会强化矿工对管理者认同的中介效果。研究丰富了领导风格与矿工安全行为的作用机制和边界条件,对煤矿安全管理实践有一定的启示意义。     

基于电磁辐射峰谷比值法的煤与瓦斯突出预警

为了提高电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险的准确性,减少误报现象,在分析大量电磁辐射现场数据基础上,基于电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险原理,提出了电磁辐射峰谷比值法,利用正态分布统计特征计算每个班次的电磁辐射瞬时强度峰值均值和谷值均值,并将其比值作为煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预警值。最后,将该方法应用于义忠煤矿11112风巷掘进工作面,研究结果表明:与临界值系数和动态变化趋势系数法相比,峰谷比值法误报较低,预警准确性高,能够很大程度上减少误报对生产的影响。     

大尺度生态干扰风险评估技术方法及应用研究

为实现大尺度生态干扰高风险区域的快速、有效识别,从生态易损性、干扰易达性和资源易引性三个方面选取了9个指标,构建了生态干扰风险评估指标体系和评估模型,形成了完整的大尺度生态干扰评估技术与方法.利用该技术方法,本文评估分析了全国国土空间生态干扰风险状况、空间分布格局及其成因,并结合2017~2019年全国自然保护区人类活动监测数据和《全国主体功能区规划》中生态脆弱性评价结果对生态干扰风险评估结果进行了精度分析.结果显示：超过90%的自然保护区人类活动都集中在评估得到的中高风险区域;全国生态干扰风险主要以中风险为主、低风险次之、再次是较低风险、较高和高风险区域面积最少;其中较高和高风险区域主要分布在我国中西部和东北部的秦岭、祁连山、三江源和内蒙古草原等区域,生态干扰风险空间分布格局与生态系统结构与功能状况、地形与交通条件、资源潜力等因素具有较强相关性.