The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (T _app). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p?<?.01), 22.4% (p?<?.05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p?<?.1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and T _app in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for T _app). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and T _app are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).     

Levels of PAHs in the soils of Belgrade and its environs

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analysed in 39 soil samples (0–10 cm upper layer) collected in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia. The sampling sites were randomly selected from urban, urban/recreational and rural areas; the samples were collected in April and December 2003 and July and October 2004. The sum of the 16 PAHs corresponding to the recreational zone (298 μg/kg) was close to the urban zone (375 μg/kg). Mean soil ΣPAH concentration from rural areas was 18 μg/kg dry weight. Comparing to values observed in the urbanized locations around the world, the overall levels of PAHs in this study are low. The PAH ratios obtained pointed to a domination of pyrogenically formed PAHs in the examined soils. The dominant PAHs in soil samples in urban zones were fluoranthene, benz[a]anthracene, phenanthrene and pyrene, mostly emitted from noncatalyst vehicles which are still in use in Serbia. The total carcinogenic potency for each sampling site was calculated. Regardless of the used carcinogenic activity factors, carcinogenic potency of 7 sites were 3–9 times higher than the reference ones indicating the increased carcinogenic burden of soils from these sites.