Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

中国水环境的NPSP问题及对策

介绍了我国水环境中的非点源污染（ＮｏｎｐｏｉｎｔＳｏｕｒｃｅｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎ，缩写为ＮＰＳＰ）的情况，强调农业生产是最主要的非点源污染。同时，针对我国水污染防治的政策目标，提出一些建议。     

Geostatistical Uncertainty Modelling for the Environmental Hazard Assessment During Single Erosive Rainstorm Events

This paper presents an environmental hazard assessment to account the impacts of single rainstorm variability on river-torrential landscape identified as potentially vulnerable mainly to erosional soil degradation processes. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Erosive Hazard Index (EHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In EHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. The hazard analysis links key rainstorm energy variables expressed as a single-storm erosion index (EI_sto), with impact thresholds identified using an intensity pattern model. Afterwards, the conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are spatially assessed using non-parametric geostatistical techinques, known as indicator kriging. The approach was applied to a test site in river-torrential landscape of the Southern Italy (Benevento province) for 13 November 1997 rainstorm event.     

黔中地区二级阶地堆积物边坡稳定性对工程建设的影响

结合在建工程清水河大花水电站实例,本文对黔中地区二级阶地堆积物边坡成因、堆积物物质成份、结构与其物理力学特性作了分析、总结,初步探讨了贵州省二级阶地堆积物边坡稳定性对工程建设的影响,望能给正在进行工程建设的同行以一定的参考,并对工程建设区的二级地堆积物边坡稳定性引起重视。     

水蚀风蚀交错带小流域生态环境综合治理模式研究

水蚀风蚀交错带是黄土高原侵蚀最严重的地区和黄河下游河床粗泥沙的主要来源区，其生态环境脆弱、治理难度大，加之晋陕蒙能源基地的大规模开发，也带来了新的环境问题。鉴于治黄和煤田开发及生态环境整治的紧迫需要，以水蚀风蚀交错带六道沟小流域为试区，分析研究了该区水蚀风蚀时空分布规律及脆弱生态环境特征，提出以防治水蚀和风蚀为中心，以提高生态经济效益和持续发展为目标，以基本农田优化结构和高效利用及植被建设为重点，建立具有防蚀固沙兼高效生态经济功能的大农业复合生态系统综合治理模式，取得了良好的社会与经济效益。     

金华地区的氟污染及其防治对策

通过对金华地区氟污染现状的描述和氟污染原因分析，提出余华地区氟污染防治的对策。     

巴彦淖尔盟草场资源开发利用中存在的生态环境问题及其对策

巴彦淖尔盟地区草场退化问题已十分严峻 ,本文分析了巴彦淖尔盟草场资源开发利用中存在的生态环境问题及其成因 ,并提出了解决问题的对策     

大同农村水环境污染原因分析及防治对策

文章在概述大同农村水环境状况的基础上,分析了其污染成因,并提出了保护与治理农村水环境的对策与建议.     

城市固定噪声源之一风机噪声的综合治理

本文对风机噪声的治理 ,提出了系统的解决办法 ,通过风机连管 ,风机隔声罩、消音器、机座的柔性安装等多种措施 ,解决了风机的空气动力噪声 ,机壳的机械噪声、风机振动等噪声源问题并充分考虑了风机密闭后防过热及能源回用等技术难点     

确定区域环境污染成因——HCA-PCA法

把系统聚类分析(简称HCA-hierachical cluster analysis) 和主成分分析方法(简称PCA-Principal Component Analysis)有机结合,从给定的"样品-指标"数据矩阵出发,利用HCA科学判定区域环境污染的类型,然后根据不同的类型利用PCA方法确定首要污染因子,针对首要污染因子,对各个污染途径进行评估,计算出各途径的污染分担率,从而确定区域污染成因.并对其原理、计算方法、特点作出分析和讨论,同时以某城镇水环境为例进行了计算示范.经证实该方法在确定区域环境污染成因,制定区域污染防治措施方面有重要的意义.