The ‘Bayesics’ of Ranked Set Sampling

Ranked set sampling can be useful when measurements are expensive but units from the popu- lation can be easily ranked. In this situation one may draw k units from the population, rank them, select one on which to make the expensive measurement, draw another k units, rank them, select one, and so on. The method was originally suggested by McIntyre (1952) in connection with pasture yields and is obviously applicable in other situations as well. Dell and Clutter (1972) and Patil et al. (1994) explain the basics from a classical point of view. Our aim is to examine the procedure from a Bayesian point of view, determine whether ranked set sampling provides advantages over simple random sampling and explore some optimality questions     

基于BP神经网络算法的北京市地铁站应急疏散能力仿真评估模型

地铁站的应急疏散能力是地下铁道安全运营设计中非常重要的部分,对于维持社会稳定,保障人民安全具有重大意义.本文利用BP神经网络计算方法和MATLAB软件,选取可能影响地铁站疏散能力的相关因素作为评价指标,建立了应急疏散指标体系,并以北京北三环区域周边地铁站作为主要研究对象,对北京市地铁站应急疏散能力进行了仿真评估,提出了增加疏散通道、疏散楼梯、安全出口等数量,以提高地铁站应急疏散能力等一些可供参考的建议.     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

信息时代的网络会计

随着因特网的普及和应用,网络会计应运而生。本文从网络会计的概念、特点、理论、目标、要求、问题和发展等方面,论述了网络会计将会得到更广泛的发展和应用,它将成为当代会计学中最有潜力的新领域。     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

A multiobjective optimization framework for multicontaminant industrial water network design

The optimal design of multicontaminant industrial water networks according to several objectives is carried out in this paper. The general formulation of the water allocation problem (WAP) is given as a set of nonlinear equations with binary variables representing the presence of interconnections in the network. For optimization purposes, three antagonist objectives are considered: F(1), the freshwater flow-rate at the network entrance, F(2), the water flow-rate at inlet of regeneration units, and F(3), the number of interconnections in the network. The multiobjective problem is solved via a lexicographic strategy, where a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) procedure is used at each step. The approach is illustrated by a numerical example taken from the literature involving five processes, one regeneration unit and three contaminants. The set of potential network solutions is provided in the form of a Pareto front. Finally, the strategy for choosing the best network solution among those given by Pareto fronts is presented. This Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem is tackled by means of two approaches: a classical TOPSIS analysis is first implemented and then an innovative strategy based on the global equivalent cost (GEC) in freshwater that turns out to be more efficient for choosing a good network according to a practical point of view.     

JUSTIFICATION FOR A REDUCTION IN THE CREST-STAGE GAGE PROGRAM IN LOUISIANA1

The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

Metagovernance and policy forum outputs in Swiss environmental politics

Policy forums are lightly institutionalized and stable forms of governance networks that include administrative authorities, interest groups, and scientists. They are said to produce different types of outputs, from simple actor coordination to position papers and implementation documents, but their productivity has also been questioned. Metagovernance strategies can improve the capability of policy forums to produce outputs. To determine how different metagovernance strategies influence the capability of forums to produce joint position papers, 29 policy forums in the Swiss environmental sector are compared through a qualitative comparative analysis. Results indicate that metagovernance strategies such as state actors as forum members or majority decision rules need to be combined with small forum size or low actor heterogeneity. Furthermore, forum foundation by the state complicates the production of position papers.     

SDS促进复配酶水解排水管网沉积物

采用SDS协同复配酶水解排水管网沉积物,分别考察了SDS投加量、反应时间、pH、温度4个影响因素对沉积物水解效果的影响,并通过 SEM、EPS、三维荧光光谱以及粒径等表征方法进行机理分析。结果表明,投加5%(w:w)SDS与8%(w:w)复配酶,在原泥pH(7.28±0.3)、25 ℃、反应时间为2 h时,沉积物水解效果最好。此时SCOD、多糖和氨氮分别由初始的5 686.9、1 913.75和87.32 mg·L⁻¹增加到8 192.9、3 561.29和153.37 mg·L⁻¹,有机质含量由56.32%下降到55.59%。在SDS+复配酶处理管网沉积物后,其内部紧实结构被破坏,TB-EPS向S-EPS转移,腐殖酸类物质荧光强度增强,表明溶解性EPS增多,且沉积物粒径向<300 μm转变。高通量测序分析结果表明,SDS+复配酶对管网沉积物微生物种类的丰富度和多样性影响不大,但在一定程度上会改变微生物的功能菌群,减少CH₄和H₂S的产生。以上研究结果可为延缓排水管网淤堵问题提供数据支持。