A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

基于信息熵的垫片密封模糊可靠度

在充分考虑垫片密封的随机性和模糊性的基础上,提出了垫片密封模糊可靠性的概念.基于信息熵理论,按模糊泄漏率导出垫片密封的模糊可靠度计算公式,并用算例说明了公式的应用.     

固体和液体危险化学品仓库火灾风险分析方法探讨

固体和液体化学品仓库火灾是企业安全面临的经常性威胁之一,需考虑火灾中毒性燃烧产物释放和非燃烧产生的毒性物质释放。结合火灾风险分析方法,阐述火灾场景中各要素及相互关系,主要包括火灾场景、物质、燃烧速率、源项、毒性、扩散、概率和风险之间的关系,火灾场景考虑持续时间、面积和通风率的影响,物质中考虑平均结构式和燃烧方程,源项中考虑形成的产物、燃烧物质每千克的散发和活性物质百分比,毒性中考虑HCl,NO2,SO2和非燃烧产生的物质。基于储存物质平均结构式,建立燃烧关系方程。燃烧速率计算取决于可用的氧气量和需要的氧气量,分为面积受限的燃烧速率和氧气受限的燃烧速率。最后给出毒性燃烧产物HCl,NO2,SO2释放量和非燃烧产生的毒性物质释放量的计算方法,同时以毒性燃烧产物释放场景后果模拟为例说明仓库发生火灾的后果严重性,为仓库火灾风险分析提供借鉴。     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.     

基于模糊均生函数和最优子集回归的飞行事故率预测

为有效预防飞行事故的发生,针对飞行事故率具有随机波动性和趋势性的特点,采用模糊均生函数(FMGF)和最优子集回归(OSR)建立飞行事故率预测模型。该方法把FMGF延拓序列作为预测因子加入OSR方程,将FMGF分析和因子筛选相结合作OSR,进而对飞行事故率进行预测。通过对美国空军1988—2004年的飞行事故率进行拟合预测,结果表明:将FMGF模型和OSR模型有机结合,能够有效刻画飞行事故率的随机波动特性,并且其预测结果的相对误差也较小。     

我国北方典型地区居民呼吸暴露参数研究

呼吸暴露参数是准确估算人体对污染物的暴露剂量和健康风险评估的重要参数之一,而我国目前对于该项工作的调查研究较少.采用问卷调查的方式对我国北方典型地区——太原的2 860名受试者进行了时间-活动模式的研究,结合人体能量估算模型,计算出适合该地区居民的呼吸速率参数,并与国内外情况进行对比分析.结果表明:该地区居民室内日平均活动时间为16.1～18.4 h;不同性别、不同年龄组的城市和农村居民从事各种强度活动的时间有很大差异;同时得出,该市城市居民长期暴露的呼吸速率参数为10.72～14.53 m3/d,农村居民为15.61～22.59 m3/d.与我国相关文献数据和美国环境保护署(US EPA)的数据相比,如果直接引用US EPA的数据,将会给健康风险带来30%～50%的偏差.      

含氚硅胶密封包装实验研究

文章针对含氚硅胶,设计了双层桶密封包装容器,即以镀膜铝桶为初始包装,内衬高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)不锈钢桶为外包装容器。含氚硅胶在镀膜铝桶内用环氧树脂浇注固定,密封;铝桶放入衬HDPE不锈钢外桶,间隙蛭石填充,垫圈密封。含氚硅胶包装桶氚释气率测量结果表明,20天内日均释氚率为4.62×10-5%;浸出实验结果表明,108天内氚日均浸出率远小于10-3%,满足氚废物包装的相关要求。     

高浓度服装水洗废水的混凝处理研究

采用化学混凝法,以PAC为混凝剂,PAM为助凝剂,对高浓度服装水洗废水进行处理研究。考察了溶液的pH值、PAC的投加量、PAM的用量等因素对脱色率及COD去除率的影响,得到最佳工艺条件为:pH为8.0左右,PAC投加量为25mL/L(废水),PAM的投加量为1.0mL/L(废水)。在此条件下,服装水洗废水的脱色率为73.1%,COD的去除率为72.1%。     

Impacts of climate change on wheat development and production in the northern China

In this paper, impacts of climate change on wheat development rate and production in the northern China are discussed. The results show that the temperature is a controlling factor of development rate but the precipitation is not. The higher the temperature is. the faster the development and the shorter development period will be. Without consideration to varieties and cropping system, meteorological yield of winter wheat would decrease 170.40, 134.25, 98.70 and 97.20 kg/hm2 in the north China and 13.97, 7.95, 39.60 and 19.80 kg/hm2 in the northwest China compared with that in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, respectively, when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled. In drought and semi-drought regions, the spring wheat yield would drop with the temperature rise in and raise with the precipitation increase. The influence of temperature on weight of leaf and stalk is also remarkable.     

城市生活垃圾堆肥动态工艺 DANO 的研究

研究了DANO式动态堆肥工艺处理我国城市生活垃圾的主要参数。结果表明,对有机物含量为50％～60％的堆料,初步稳定化时间为3～4日,耗氧速率每分钟为0.1％～0.2％,温度高于50℃;达到完全稳定化,所需时间为14～15日,具体数值与堆料特性有关。有机物含量低于40％的堆料,则不宜以本工艺处理。