Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

精神支持与物质支持对建筑工人不安全行为影响对比

为向建筑工人提供更具针对性的支持,对比分析精神支持和物质支持的影响效果,分别构建精神支持和物质支持对建筑工人不安全行为的影响机理,基于351名建筑工人调查数据,采用结构方程模型展开实证研究.研究结果表明:精神支持和物质支持对建筑工人安全意识的提高和工作压力的降低都具有显著影响;相较于物质支持,精神支持影响效果更好,更能...     

林火灾变阈值

木火灾是失去人为控制,自由蔓延的森林燃烧,破坏了原有森林的结构与功能,并能在相当内难难复原有林的结构,带来的一定的经济损失。本文提出６个林火灾变的生态指标,３个火行为指标,并提出林火灾变的阈值。     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS OF GREATER GROUND‐WATER RECHARGE TO LAS VEGAS VALLEY,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Published estimates of natural recharge in Las Vegas Valley range between 21,000 and 35,000 acre‐feet per year. This study examined the underlying assumptions of previous investigations and evaluated the altitude‐precipitation relationships. Period‐of‐record averages from high altitude precipitation gages established in the 1940s through the 1990s, were used to determine strong local altitude‐precipitation relationships that indicate new total precipitation and natural recharge amounts and a new spatial distribution of that recharge. This investigation calculated about 51,000 acre‐feet per year of natural recharge in the Las Vegas Hydrographic Basin, with an additional 6,000 acre‐feet per year from areas tributary to Las Vegas Valley, for a total of 57,000 acre‐feet per year. The total amount of natural recharge is greater than estimates from earlier investigations and is consistent with a companion study of natural discharge, which estimated 53,000 acre‐feet per year of outflow. The hydrologic implications of greater recharge in Las Vegas Valley infer a more accurate ground‐water budget and a better understanding of ground‐water recharge that will be represented in a ground‐water model. Thus model based ground‐water management scenarios will more realistically access impacts to the ground‐water system.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO₂. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.     

REGULATED RIVER MODELING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Great Plains of the United States, drained primanly by the Missouri River, are very sensitive to shifts in climate. The six main stem dams on the Missouri River control more than one‐half of the nearly 1.5 million square kilometer basin and can store three times the annual inflow from upstream. The dams are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers using a Master Manual that describes system priorities and benefits. The complex operational rules were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool computer model (SWAT). SWAT is a distributed parameter rainfall‐runoff model capable of simulating the transpiration suppression effects of CO₂ enrichment. The new reservoir algorithms were calibrated using a 25‐year long historic record of basin climate and discharge records. Results demonstrate that it is possible to incorporate the operation of a highly regulated river system into a complex rainfall‐runoff model. The algorithms were then tested using extreme climate scenarios indicative of a prolonged drought, a short drought, and a ten percent increase in basin‐wide precipitation. It is apparent that the rules for operating the reservoirs will likely require modification if, for example, upper‐basin precipitation were to increase only ten percent under changed climate conditions.     

EPA'S BASINS MODEL: GOOD SCIENCE OR SERENDIPITOUS MODELING?1

ABSTRACT: Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non‐point Sources (BASINS) is a geographic‐based watershed assessment tool developed by EPA's Office of Water to help states more efficiently target and evaluate water‐bodies that are not meeting water quality standards. BASINS (EPA, 1996a, 1998) brings together data on water quality and quantity, land uses, point source loadings, and other related spatial data with supporting nonpoint and water quality models at a quicker and more effective pace. EPA developed BASINS, to better integrate point and nonpoint source water quality assessments for the Nation's 2100+ watersheds. In its zeal to achieve this endpoint, EPA has initiated a simplistic approach that was expected to grow through scientific enhancements as TMDL developers become more familiar with modeling requirements. BASINS builds upon federal databases of water quality conditions and point source loadings for numerous parameters where quality assurance is suspect in some cases. Its design allows comprehensive assessments and modeling in typical Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) computations. While the TMDL utility is the primary reason BASINS was developed, other longer‐range water quality assessments will become possible as the Agency expands the suite of assessment models and databases in future releases. The simplistic approach to modeling and user‐friendly tools gives rise, however, to technical and philosophical concerns related to default data usage. Seamless generation of model input files and the failure of some utilities to work properly suggest to NCASI that serious problems may still exist and prompts the need for a more rigorous peer‐review. Furthermore, sustainable training becomes paramount, as some older modelers will be unfamiliar with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and associated computer skills. Overall, however, BASINS was judged to be an excellent beginning tool to meet the complex environmental modeling needs in the 21st Century.     

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least-cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid-network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest-cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non-point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non-point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.     

Uncertainty analysis of climate change mitigation options in the forestry sector using a generic carbon budget model

Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy.