自然灾害经济损失函数与变化规律

为对自然灾害损失进行定量评估,本文提出了自然灾害经济损失函数的概念,并讨论了该函数的性质,提出并论证了自然灾害经济损失随时间波浪式增加规律。根据这一规律,对我国提出的“到本世纪末,最终达到减少自然灾害损失30%”的减灾目标进行了讨论,提出了自己的看法。     

天灾预测最新的原理和方法：天文气象超长期预报新学科

本文简要地叙述了天文气象超长期预报的原理、方法,提出了天文气象学是实现超长期天气预报的一门新兴学科。     

中国季风边缘带的自然灾害及成因

本文提出并讨论了季风边缘带的概念范围，并按大气圈、岩石圈和生物圈等三个方面对自然灾害的特点和成因进行了论证。认为这个地区之所以成为一个自然灾害多发区是因该区气候、地质、地貌等均有利于自然灾害的形成和发展，人为作用加剧了灾害。     

广东自然灾害成因及其对经济的影响

本文从地理位置、地形特征、地质构造、水文特征、天气气候特征、人类活动、经济结构与布局,以及社会环境等8个方面分析了广东自然灾害形成的环境条件及类型,并分析研究了成灾特点和对广东经济发展的影响。结果表明,广东自然灾害的形成及其成灾频度和强度,既决定于自然环境的变异,也受制于人类活动和社会经济环境,并具有区域性、周期性、群发性、连锁性、阶段性和社会性等特点,自然灾害对于广东经济发展的严重影响有日益加剧的趋势。     

解放以来我国农业灾害综述

本文根据现有数据，浅析了解放以来我国农业灾害，特别是水、旱灾害的变化及其原因；分析了成灾比例与减灾工作状况之间存在着内在的联系，指出成灾比例可以在一定程度上反映减灾工作的好坏。旨在为客观评价我国农业减灾现状，合理配置减灾力量，提供信息和决策依据。     

A planning and decision-making framework for ecological restoration

A broad and objective perspective of ecological and socioenomic knowledge is required to underlie a scientific approach to the problems of terrestrial restoration ecology. Uncertainty associated with limited scientific knowledge highlights the crucial importance of the interaction between science and policy in weighing ecological restoration alternatives in relation to other management options. In this paper, we provide a pragmatic definition for restoration ecology that is suitable for extensive terrestrial applications and present a decision framework to help organize and clarify different phases of the decision process as it is related to ecological restoration. We argue that restoration planning should include a wider spectrum of participants and decisions than have traditionally been employed.     

Practicing natural resource management with a policy orientation

All natural resource managers want to contribute to successful conservation programs. Having and applying an explicit policy orientation is indispensable. The policy sciences are described and a case is made that, if natural resource managers utilize this set of conceptual and applied tools in their natural resource work, their effectiveness could be enhanced. The policy sciences offer a contextual, problem-oriented, and multimethod approach to meeting complex problems. Two kinds of knowledge are needed to solve problems—substantive knowledge about the resource and process knowledge about the decision and policy processes used to derive courses of management action. The interplay of science, analysis, and politics are examined. The wildlife management community is used to illustrate many points, including the important role implementation plays in the overall policy process.     

Using ecological knowledge for development planning

Since October 1977, the East-West Environment and Policy Institute in Honolulu has been conducting a multinational collaborative project to enhance the preparation and utilization of natural systems assessments in developing countries. This paper presents some of the findings to date: 1. Channels are developing rapidly for transferring ecological knowledge into political and administrative decision making. 2. The systematic approach of ecology is replacing environmental quality as the organizing concept for information about natural resources and the environment. 3. Benefit-cost analysis is a promising method for integrating ecological knowledge into economic development decision making. 4. The lack of baseline information, inventories, and predictive capability will not be remedied soon or easily; thus priorities for ecological research are essential.This paper is adapted from a presentation at the Fifth Symposium on Tropical Ecology of the International Society for Tropical Ecology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on 19 April 1979. Environmental Management, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 13–20     

The rise and fall of the nature conservation movement in Japan in relation to some cultural values

The Japanese are traditionally regarded as nature-loving people, living in “harmony” with nature. However, this assumption is difficult to accept when observing the environmental problems in Japan. How can one explain the incongruities? Has the Japanese people's attitude toward nature changed as Japan has modernized? Is the concept of the nature-loving Japanese merely a myth? Is there another reason to explain this contradiction? This study shows political and economic origins of the paradox. The origin of the Japanese traditional idea of nature is fear and reverence of nature based on a primitive religion that developed in a rural subsistence living situation. Aesthetic and spiritual values of nature for cultural, educational, and intellectual entertainment were developed by the ruling class in the seventh century. Japan's first nature conservation movement, imported from the West, developed among the intellectual community and was advocated and promoted by the elite in the Meiji period (1868–1911). However, because deep commitment was lacking, the movement was abused by the military government before World War II. In the early 1970s the nature conservation movement seemed to be on the ascendancy, mainly because it was combined with the antipollution movement claiming the basic rights of survival. The Japanese nature conservation movement is still in the embryonic stage; in the future, the blending of some traditional resource management with the scientific philosophy of nature conservation may help promote the new wave of nature conservation in Japan.