A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks

Introduction

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN).

Method

It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators’ values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN.

Conclusions

It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model.     

Using classification trees to analyze the impact of exotic species on the ecological assessment of polder lakes in Flanders, Belgium

Polder lakes in Flanders are stagnant waters that were flooded by the sea in the past. Several of these systems are colonized by exotic species, but have hardly been studied until present. The aim of the present study was: (1) to assess the influence of exotic macrobenthic species on the outcome of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF) and (2) to use classification trees for evaluating to what extent physical-chemical characteristics affect the presence of exotic species.In total, 27 mollusc and 10 macro-crustacean species were present in the monitored lakes of which respectively five and four were exotic. The exclusion of the exotic species from the MMIF resulted in a significant decline of this ecological index (−0.03 ± 0.04; p = 0.00). This elimination often resulted into a lower ecological water quality class and more samples were classified into the bad and poor ecological water quality classes.Single-target classification trees for Gammarus tigrinus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum were constructed, relating environmental parameters and ecological status (MMIF) to the occurrence of both exotic invasive species. The major advantages of using single-target classification trees are the transparency of the rule sets and the possibility to use relatively small datasets. However, this classification technique only predicts a single-target attribute and the trees of the different species are often hard to integrate and use for water managers. As a solution, a multi-target approach was used in the present study. Exotic molluscs and crustaceans communities were modelled based on environmental parameters and the ecological status (MMIF) using multi-target classification trees. Multi-target classification trees can be used in management planning and investment decisions as they can lead to integrated decisions for the whole set of exotic species and avoid the construction of many models for each individual species. These trees provide general insights concerning the occurrence patterns of individual crustaceans and molluscs in an integrated way.     

Model-based zero emission safety concept for reactors with exothermal reactions for chemical plants

To avoid major accidents caused by runaway reactions, a new safety concept called SmartHIP¹ is introduced, with the objective to prevent runaway reactions and avoid emissions. The basic principle is based on an online model-based approach by using safety instrumented systems. Different criteria exist for calculating the hazard potential of a runaway reaction and its early detection. The approaches of the literature from the last years are analysed and divided into three different groups: Divergence, Accumulation and Adiabatic Criterion. Each approach is compared to the other by applying it to an esterification reaction of acetic anhydride with methanol. The approaches are evaluated according to different requirements, like accuracy, wide range of application or reliability.     

Risk factors affecting crash injury severity for different groups of e-bike riders: A classification tree-based logistic regression model

IntroductionAs a convenient and affordable means of transportation, the e-bike is widely used by different age rider groups and for different travel purposes. The underlying reasons for e-bike riders suffering from severe injury may be different in each case.MethodThis study aims to examine the underlying risk factors of severe injury for different groups of e-bike riders by using a combined method, integration of a classification tree and a logistic regression model. Three-year of e-bike crashes occurring in Hunan province are extracted, and risk factor including rider’s attribute, opponent vehicle and driver’s attribute, improper behaviors of riders and drivers, road, and environment characteristics are considered for this analysis.ResultsE-bike riders are segmented into five groups based on the classification tree analysis, and the group of non-occupational riders aged over 55 in urban regions is associated with the highest likelihood of severe injury among the five groups. The logistics analysis for each group shows that several risk factors such as high-speed roads have commonly significant effects on injury severity for different groups; while major factors only have significant effects for specific groups.Practical applicationBased on model results, policy implications to alleviate the crash injury for different e-bike riders groups are recommended, which mainly include enhanced education and enforcement for e-bike risky behaviors, and traffic engineering to regulate the use of e-bikes on high speed roads.     

自然环境谱编制方法研究

针对装备(产品)在服役过程中所遭受的自然环境开展了自然环境谱编制方法研究,给出了自然环境谱的定义和编制程序,提出了盐雾和工业废气环境的判定标准,制定了适用于我国各种大气环境场地自然环境谱的编制方法,并举例编制了某地域的自然环境谱.     

A preliminary study on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones in Taiwan 2000–2014

Studies on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones often concern large-scale disasters. Attention is rarely paid to small-scale mortality over the long term. To understand the relationship between the environment and the behavior that contributes to mortality, this article uses a classification table to review the 1556 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones, named typhoons, in Taiwan during the period 2000–2014. The results demonstrate that the majority of outdoor deaths are associated with work-related activities, while most indoor deaths occur during non-work-related activities. Taking action, such as stopping the car on a bridge if the tail lights of a vehicle in front disappear, and not walking on the roadside when the road is flooded by muddy water, may help to reduce the likelihood of typhoon-attributed death. The findings also help to dispel four myths associated with typhoon-attributed mortality.     

A review on hybrid mixture explosions: Safety parameters,explosion regimes and criteria,flame characteristics

The hybrid mixture of combustible dusts and flammable gases/vapours widely exist in various industries, including mining, petrochemical, metallurgical, textile and pharmaceutical. It may pose a higher explosion risk than gas/vapor or dust/mist explosions since the hybrid explosions can still be initiated even though both the gas and the dust concentration are lower than their lower explosion limit (LEL) values. Understanding the explosion threat of hybrid mixtures not only contributes to the inherent safety and sustainability of industrial process design, but promotes the efficiency of loss prevention and mitigation. To date, however, there is no test standard with reliable explosion criteria available to determine the safety parameters of all types of hybrid mixture explosions, nor the flame propagation and quenching mechanism or theoretical explanation behind these parameters. This review presents a state-of-the-art overview of the comprehensive understanding of hybrid mixture explosions mainly in an experimental study level; thereby, the main limitations and challenges to be faced are explored. The discussed main contents include the experimental measurement for the safety parameters of hybrid mixtures (i.e., explosion sensitivity and severity parameters) via typical test apparatuses, explosion regime and criterion of hybrid mixtures, the detailed flame propagation/quenching characteristics behind the explosion severities/sensitivities of hybrid mixtures. This work aims to summarize the essential basics of experimental studies, and to provide the perspectives based on the current research gaps to understand the explosion hazards of hybrid mixtures in-depth.     

Definition of Planarian Mortality in an Acute Toxicity Test: A Case Study on Dugesia japonica Exposed to 1-Octyl-3-methylimidazolium Bromide

In order to define the mortality criteria of planarian objectively,a case study of Dugesia japonica exposed to 1-octyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide([C8mim]Br)was performed followed by a recovery culture.The results showed that defining planarian mortality in light of its body disintegration was appropriate.If the disintegrated tissue of a planarian was more than 1/4 of its body length,it would completely degenerate.However,a planarian would regenerate the lost tissue and return to normal after a few days’recovery culture if the disintegrated part was less than 1/4 of body length.Therefore,we propose to use body disintegration as the endpoint of planarian mortality,i.e.,1/4 body length degenerated is the critical threshold of mortality and survival of planarians when exposed to toxicants.This criterion could be adapted in the standardization of testing protocols and comparability of acute toxicity test or other toxicological research using planarian as the test animal.     

考虑损伤的圆形巷道围岩弹塑性分析

如何判断巷道开挖后,围岩弹塑性变形及围岩的力学行为一直是人们研究的重点问题。考虑岩石材料的损伤特性,建立了巷道围岩弹塑性损伤力学模型,对侧压力系数为1时圆形巷道围岩的弹塑性应力场及范围进行分析。结合具体算例,得出在相同塑性范围内,随着λ/E比值的增大,所需要的支护阻力也随之增大;当原岩应力一定时,随着λ/E比值的增大,巷道围岩的塑性区范围也随之增加。研究表明,考虑损伤作用使得分析结果更加接近于实际,从而为巷道围岩稳定性分析和合理选择支护形式及强度提供理论依据。     

混凝土复合型裂缝的断裂能及其判据研究

首先通过理论分析得到断裂能与能量释放率的关系,继而根据试验研究测出的单一型裂缝的断裂能,进行单一型裂缝断裂能与断裂韧度的相关性分析,得到了单一型裂缝的断裂能与能量释放率之间的关系,再进行数值模拟,获得混凝土复合型裂缝的断裂能。基于Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型、二维复合型(Ⅰ-Ⅱ、Ⅰ-Ⅲ、Ⅱ-Ⅲ)和三维复合型(Ⅰ-Ⅱ-Ⅲ)的应力强度因子断裂临界曲线和临界曲面(即完整的系列K判据),通过各复合型裂缝的断裂韧度,得到相应的能量释放率,进而获得复合型裂缝的断裂能,绘出断裂能临界曲线和曲面,从而建立了完整的系列断裂能G判据。