佳木斯台形变观测对东北地区几次浅震“场兆”异常的探讨

大地震在主破裂前往往行成地壳变形,高应力作用下进入峰值后的变形阶段,反映到地倾斜观测日均值曲线上,表现为固体潮形变趋势异常,这些异常能否指示远距离的地震,近年来不少研究者发现,远场前兆往往出现在对应力、应变变化反应灵敏的特殊构造部位。佳木斯台可能处于这种特殊的构造部位,对东北地区浅源地震短期前兆异常“场兆”的趋势性变化具有一定的意义。     

秦岭若干重要类型金矿床(体)快速定位预测

本文以西部秦岭地区八卦庙、双王、煎茶岭 3种重要类型金矿床为例 ,在成矿地质背景研究基础上 ,开展若干新方法新技术的找矿试验 ,研究发现 ,八卦庙式金矿岩石的烃含量与其金品位大致成正相关关系 ;而且金矿化强度和规模越大 ,相关系数值也越大 ;据此根据石英脉的烃含量对隐伏金矿床 (体 )和金矿化规模进行预测。双王式金矿原生晕的前缘晕元素为B、As、Sb、Hg,近矿晕元素为Au、Ba(-) ,尾晕元素为Mn、Bi。通过原生叠加晕垂向研究预测 ,双王和八卦庙金矿床现有的金矿体向下延伸还较大 ,在矿床的深部存在有盲矿体。煎茶岭式金矿的矿石铅同位素平均值比围岩要小 ,铅同位素曲线的低峰区往往就指示矿体所在 ;预测区的2 0 6Pb/ 2 0 4 Pb、2 0 8Pb/ 2 0 4 Pb比值变差椭圆图的形状和轴向斜率与已知矿区趋于一致 ,并且两者的变差椭圆图形大部分重叠 ,说明存在有同类型金矿体。以上研究成果为同期或后来的勘探工作或矿山采矿所验证。     

南昌台气氡异常核实

前兆观测资料异常产生的原因总体可分为两大类:观测物理量自身变化和外部因素影响,后者即通常所称的干扰.要提取出观测资料中有价值的震兆信息,必须首先将干扰剔除,但由于前兆干扰成因本身具有复杂性和多样性,并随不同测项、不同环境而存在个体差异,故要求异常核实工作深入、细致、全面、客观.本文通过一个实例,详细介绍了异常核实的思路和流程,并确定此次异常为仪器干扰,不属于震兆异常.     

南昌地震台地下水位变化异常的分析判别

本篇文章主要通过对南昌台地下水位资料变化的处理分析，利用求地下水水位变化的加速度来判别和分析地震异常，并初步进行试验预报和探索研究。     

Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives

To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches.     

Climate Convention Implementation: An Opportunity for the Pacific Island Nations to Move Toward Sustainable Energy Systems

This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions.     

用水化资料对南黄海6.1级地震的预测

根据区域水氡平均年离散度变化及应用“地下流体预报方法ＳＨＥＰ软件”，对水化资料和一些Ｒｎ，Ｃｌ－，Ｃａ２＋单项异常进行综合分析，于１９９６年１０月提出：从１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年下半年，在南长带海域（尤其是东经１２１°±１°，北纬３３°±１°的区域）有发生Ｍｓ６．０级左右地震的可能，要特别注意１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年上半年（信度ＣＦ＝０．６）。本次南黄海６．１级地震映证了这一预报意见     

Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论

通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析，结合１４Ｃ、古地磁等，对北京房山东甘池１５０００ａ以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究，特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在１４１００～１４０００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件，在１００００ａＢ．Ｐ．左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件，在大约５７７０ａＢ．Ｐ．和４５６０ａＢ．Ｐ．左右及２８５０～２６５０ａＢ．Ｐ．出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。