乌鲁木齐冬季大气混浊度系数与光气候

本文利用30年的气候资料分析了乌鲁木齐冬季光气候与大气混浊度之间的关系,指出了大气混浊度的增加是造成辐射总照度下降的主要原因.     

1994年江淮伏旱及其影响研究

利用江谁地区18个站点1951～1995年6～8月降水量资料,用Z指数建立了历年夏季旱涝序列,着重对1994年江淮伏旱及其对农业、水资源的影响进行了分析评述,获得了一些有意义的结论。     

水稻生产气象灾害危险性分析：—以湖南省常德市水稻生产为例

本文通过对研究区水稻气象灾害规律的研究和危险性评价,计算了不同等级的水稻综合风险率,为保险部门制定水稻保险费率提供了科学依据.     

Ecological impacts of early 21st century agricultural change in Europe – A review

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them.     

The legitimation of contested carbon markets after Paris – empirical insights from market stakeholders

ABSTRACT

After the Paris Agreement the global carbon offset markets face regulatory uncertainty and new legitimation challenges. This paper examines the discursive legitimation of the carbon markets between 2015 and 2018 and is based on 37 qualitative interviews with market stakeholders. The results show that the carbon markets remain contested and require new ideas and concepts to construct legitimacy. Some stakeholders consider moving beyond carbon offsetting, mainly due to new risks of double counting. Others continue to portray carbon offsetting as a ‘false solution’. Nevertheless, the trust in carbon markets as an appropriate way to address climate change remains high. Therefore, new forms of international emission trading are likely to evolve under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.     

气候政策研究中的数学模型评述

按照成本分析和综合分析2个层次，分别介绍了投入产出模型、可计算一般均衡模型、宏观计量经济模型、工程经济模型、动态能源优化模型、能源系统模拟模型、综合评估模型等不同模型方法的特点及其在气候政策分析中的应用。指出可计算一般均衡模型是应用得最为广泛的方法之一。概括了气候政策模型研究的4个发展趋势，包括加强综合评估模型的应用、扩展成本与效益的内涵、注重不同模型之间的比较、强调不确定性分析。结果中国研究现状，分析了当前面昨的问题，认为国内气候政策模型研究与中国在国际气候变化领域的地位仍不相称，强度要进一步加强研究队伍建设、扩展研究领域、跟踪国际研究前沿问题，以便为国家的气候谈判政策提供更有效的科学依据和决策支持。     

后德班时代环境保护部门开展应对气候变化工作的几点思考

2011年11月28日至12月11日,《联合国气候变化框架公约》第17次缔约方大会暨《京都议定书》第7次缔约方会议在南非德班召开。在平衡与妥协的激烈博弈q-,最终达成了一个各方均不满意,但都能接受的《德班协议》。全球减排合作进程进一步加快加严,我国在后德班时代面临的国际谈判与国内应对压力将更加严峻,环保部门在温室气体监测统计、污染物与温室气体协同控制、生态保护与适应气候变化等领域将发挥越来越重要的作用。     

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants(POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models(GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ～100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus(TP) concentrations and regional GDP(anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.     

广西高镉异常区水田土壤Cd含量特征及生态风险评价

本研究调查了广西高镉异常区水田土壤中重金属Cd的含量水平,评估其对环境的潜在生态风险.通过初步筛查和详细调查两部分,分批次采集高镉异常区土壤样品共912件,测定土壤Cd含量,并运用单因子污染指数法和潜在风险指数法对水田土壤Cd污染程度及潜在风险进行评价.结果表明:①初查中自然土壤、水田土壤和旱地土壤Cd几何均值分别为0. 915、0. 591和0. 593 mg·kg~(-1).②详查中土壤p H为4. 6～8. 7,介于酸性和弱碱性间.若以《土壤环境质量标准》(GB15618-2018)为标准,平果县、天等县、大新县、隆安县和柳城县水田土壤样点Cd超标严重,融水县水田土壤样点无污染;以土壤基线值为评价标准,田东县、柳城县和融水土壤样点中Cd均为无污染状态;田阳县、平果县、天等县、大新县、隆安县和融安县水田土壤Cd处于轻度-中度污染的比例分别为:4. 2%、3. 7%、14. 9%、2. 6%、7. 1%和1. 4%.③9个县市水田土壤中Cd呈现不同级别潜在生态风险.天等县、大新县和隆安县部分水田土壤样点Cd处于高等生态风险,比例为4. 3%、2. 6%、2. 4%;田阳县、平果县、融安县和柳城县水田土壤Cd表现为中-中高等潜在风险;田东县和融水县处于低潜在生态风险.总体上,研究区水田土壤中Cd整体偏高,长此以往可能会对水稻安全种植产生影响,最终对当地居民产生健康威胁,应引起重视.建议开展对研究区土壤镉生物有效性和水稻镉累积状况研究,以便科学合理地评估其生态风险和健康风险.     

Linking permit markets multilaterally

We formally study the determinants, magnitude and distribution of efficiency gains generated in multilateral linkages between permit markets. We provide two novel decomposition results for these gains, characterize individual preferences over linking groups and show that our results are largely unaltered with strategic domestic emissions cap selection or when banking and borrowing are allowed. Using the Paris Agreement pledges and power sector emissions data of five countries which all use or considered using both emissions trading and linking, we quantify the efficiency gains. We find that the computed gains can be sizable and are split roughly equally between effort and risk sharing.