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81.
82.
In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO2 emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of
CO2 concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed
with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective.
It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from
moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved
at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis
shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect. 相似文献
83.
The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO2 climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results 相似文献
84.
Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily
dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the
oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the
model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A
s), maximum depth (H
max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z
s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms
of a stratification parameterA
s/H
max
0.25
and Secchi depthZ
s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest
are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as
follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios
are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and
time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted
(monthly) by the 2 × CO2 GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO2. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above
7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter.
Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound
effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management
options. 相似文献
85.
本文分析了江苏省近几十年来、特别是80年代以来冬季气温的变化特征,根据农业灾害发生的条件,讨论了“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响,为农业生产部门和防灾抗灾部门决策提供科学依据. 相似文献
86.
Kennett SA 《Environmental management》2002,30(5):0595-0608
Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass
as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues,
particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international
consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention.
National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and
agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic
from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts,
account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues
relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should
be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management.
Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing
these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass
production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. 相似文献
87.
Advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand: Policy intervention and institutional settings
This article reviews and analyses the advancement of renewable sources of energy in Bangladesh and Thailand in terms of policy intervention and institutional settings. Since renewable forms of energy emit far smaller amounts of greenhouse gas compared with fossil fuels, their use should mitigate climate change impacts while contributing to the provision of energy services. The article turns first to a review of energy–environment trends and the potential for renewables in these two nations. It then discusses strategies for the advancement of renewables. It is argued that further significant efforts can be made towards the advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand. These two nations could also learn from the experience in industrialized nations and other developing nations with regard to requisite policy instruments and processes. A number of barriers remain to the advancement of renewables, especially in terms of policy arrangements, institutional settings, financing mechanisms and technologies. Resources, cooperation and learning are required in order to overcome such barriers and to foster the development of necessary policy measures. Implementation of the clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and replication and adaptation of effective strategies from other settings are possible avenues for this. 相似文献
88.
应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标 相似文献
89.
The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts.
Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow
stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario
of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth.
The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve
as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but
the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation
costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain.
Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999 相似文献
90.
Chen-Tung?Arthur?ChenEmail author James?T.?Liu Ben-Jei?Tsuang 《Regional Environmental Change》2004,4(1):39-48
Rapid economic and industrial development in Taiwan over the past five decades has elevated the islands standing and earned it a place in the group known as the Four Small Dragons of Asia. Such growth, however, has been at the expense of the environment. There are currently nearly 23 million people juggling for space on the small island of 35,873 km2. Aggravating the matter further, the central mountain ranges and hills take up 73.6% of the land area with some 156 peaks surpassing 3,000 m. As a result, most people live in coastal plains which amount to only 9,490 km2. Pressure to move people inland has led to road construction and deforestation, both of which have contributed to an already high denudation rate of topsoil. As a consequence of this, thirteen rivers in Taiwan are now ranked among the top 20 worldwide in terms of sediment yield. Aside from this, the frequency of both floods and droughts increased prior to 1990, perhaps because of deforestation and global warming. Fortunately, the new conservation-orientated forest management policy of 1991 has alleviated the problem, somewhat, and the occurrence of floods and droughts has since decreased. The problem of water shortage, however, has worsened because of the warming trend in atmospheric temperature. Damming may ameliorate the water shortage problem but may affect the shoreline stability, as well as the ecology and water quality in the estuaries. Furthermore, these detrimental effects may go far beyond the estuaries, and even fisheries on the continental shelves may be affected. 相似文献