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991.
992.
Manuel R. Guariguata Jonathan P. Cornelius Bruno Locatelli Claudio Forner G. Arturo Sánchez-Azofeifa 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(8):793-808
The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis
has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical
forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global
climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate
change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may
be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic
adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers
additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration
in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort
with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent
communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance
on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt
management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation
into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change
considerations into tropical forestry. 相似文献
993.
Recent interest in sustainable forest management planning in the Yukon has coincided with growing public awareness of climate
change, providing an opportunity to explore how forestry plans are incorporating climate change. In this paper, the Strategic
Forest Management Plans for the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations Traditional Territory (CATT) and the Teslin Tlingit Traditional
Territory (TTTT) are examined for evidence of adaptation to climate change. For each plan, management policies and practices
that are also recognized as ways to adapt to climate change are identified to provide information on the incremental costs
and benefits of additional adaptation efforts. A typology for classifying sustainable forest management plans according to
how they address climate change is proposed and applied to the CATT and TTTT plans. This typology, which may be useful to
any future retrospective assessments on how successful these or other sustainable forest management plans have been in addressing
and managing the risks posed by climate change, consists of a matrix that categorizes plans into one of four types; (1) proactive-direct,
(2) proactive-indirect, (3) reactive-direct, and (4) reactive-indirect. Neither of the plans available for the southern Yukon
explicitly identifies climate change vulnerabilities and actions that will be taken to reduce those vulnerabilities and manage
risks. However, both plans have incorporated some examples of ‘best management practices’ for sustainable forest management
that are also consistent with appropriate climate adaptation responses. Even in a jurisdiction facing rapid ecological changes
driven by climate change, where there is a relatively high level of awareness of climate change and its implications, forestry
planning processes have yet to grapple directly with the risks that climate change may pose to the ability of forest managers
to achieve the stated goals and objectives of sustainable forest management plans.
相似文献
J. L. InnesEmail: |
994.
Andrea Bigano Francesco Bosello Roberto Roson Richard S. J. Tol 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(8):765-791
While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts
are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely
to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions.
It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows.
By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly.
Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (−) 0.1% in South East
Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows – which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe,
Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions – triggers GDP losses ranging from (−) 0.5% in Small Island
States to (−) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia. The impact
of sea level rise and tourism were simulated jointly and the results compared with those of the two disjoint simulations.
From a qualitative point of view, the joint effects are similar to the outcomes of the disjoint exercises; from a quantitative
perspective, however, impact interaction does play a significant role. In six cases out of 16 there is a detectable (higher
than 2% and peaking to 70%) difference between the sum of the outcomes in the disjoint simulation and the outcomes of the
joint simulations. Moreover, the relative contribution of each single impact category has been disentangled from the final
result. In the case under scrutiny, demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply-side shock induced
by the loss of coastal land.
相似文献
Francesco BoselloEmail: |
995.
Dharmaratne Amarakoon Anthony Chen Sam Rawlins Dave D. Chadee Michael Taylor Roxann Stennett 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(4):341-357
The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980–2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Niño periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Niño (an El Niño + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies. 相似文献
996.
Greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries through technology transfer?: a survey of empirical evidence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sonja Peterson 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):283-305
While greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise primarily in the developing countries, the potential for developing
new GHG mitigation technologies exists primarily in the industrialized countries. It is thus important, not only for predictions
about future emission paths but also for climate change mitigation policies, to understand how the international diffusion
of such technologies takes place and how it affects the energy infrastructure and GHG emissions in developing countries. This
paper provides an overview of the channels through which these technologies diffuse and focuses on the empirical evidence
pertaining to the effects these technologies have on GHG emissions in developing countries.
相似文献
Sonja PetersonEmail: |
997.
On the value of temporary carbon: a comment on Kirschbaum 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Philip M. Fearnside 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):207-210
A recent paper by Miko Kirschbaum (Mitigat Adapt Strategies Glob Change 11(5–6):1151–1164, 2006) argues that temporary carbon (C) storage has “virtually no climate-change mitigation value.” However, temporary carbon has
value in delaying global warming that needs to be recognized in carbon accounting methodologies. The conclusions reached are
very sensitive to any value that is attached to time. Basing analysis exclusively on the maximum temperature reached within
a 100-year time frame ignores other important impacts of global warming that also need to be included when mitigation strategies
are assessed. The relative weightings for long-term versus short-term impacts represent policy choices that result in a greater
or a lesser value being attributed to temporary carbon, but that value should not be zero. Global warming is too formidable
an enemy to allow us the luxury of discarding part of our arsenal in fighting against it. Both reducing fossil-fuel combustion
and increasing biosphere carbon stocks are needed. 相似文献
998.
Andrew D. Ashton Jeffrey P. Donnelly Rob L. Evans 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(7):719-743
An increase in the rate of sea-level rise and potential changes in storminess represent important components of global climate
change that will likely affect the extensive coasts of the Northeastern USA. Raising sea level not only increases the likelihood
of coastal flooding, but changes the template for waves and tides to sculpt the coast, which can lead to land loss orders
of magnitude greater than that from direct inundation alone. There is little question that sea-level rise, and in particular
an increased rate of rise, will result in permanent losses of coastal land. However, quantitative predictions of these future
coastal change remains difficult due in part to the complexity of coastal systems and the influence of infrequent storm events,
and is further confounded by coastal science’s insufficient understanding of the behavior of coastal systems over decadal
timescales. Recently, dramatic improvements in technology have greatly improved our capabilities to investigate and characterize
processes and sedimentary deposits in the coastal zone, allowing us, for the first time, to address some of the over-arching
problems involved in shoreline change. Despite advances in many areas of coastal geology, our fundamental understanding of
shoreline change has been limited by a lack of a broad and integrated scientific focus, a lack of resources, and a lack of
willingness on the part of policymakers who make crucial decisions about human activity along the coast to support basic research
in this area. Although quantitative predictions remain constrained, there remains little doubt that the predicted climates
changes will have profound effects upon the Northeastern coast. 相似文献
999.
P. Sudha V. Ramprasad M. D. V. Nagendra H. D. Kulkarni N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1131-1152
This paper addresses methodological issues in estimating carbon (C) sequestration potential, baseline determination, additionality
and leakage in Khammam district, Andhra Pradesh, southern part of India. Technical potential for afforestation on cultivable
wastelands, fallow, and marginal croplands was considered for Eucalyptus clonal plantations. Field studies for aboveground and belowground biomass, woody litter, and soil organic carbon for baseline
and project scenarios were conducted to estimate the carbon sequestration potential. The baseline carbon stock was estimated
to be 45.3 t C/ha, predominately in soils. The additional carbon sequestration potential under the project scenario for 30 years
is estimated to be 12.8 t C/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes and carbon emissions due to biomass burning and fertilizer
application. Considering carbon storage in harvested wood, an additional 45% carbon benefit can be accounted. The project
scenario has a higher benefit/cost ratio compared to the baseline scenario. The initial investment cost requirement, however,
is high and lack of access to investment is a significant barrier for adoption of agroforestry in the district.
相似文献
N. H. RavindranathEmail: |
1000.
C. Price Y. Yair A. Mugnai K. Lagouvardos M.C. Llasat S. Michaelides U. Dayan S. Dietrich E. Galanti L. Garrote N. Harats D. Katsanos M. Kohn V. Kotroni M. Llasat-Botija B. Lynn L. Mediero E. Morin K. Nicolaides S. Rozalis K. Savvidou B. Ziv 《Environmental Science & Policy》2011,14(7):898-911
The FLASH project was implemented from 2006 to 2010 under the EU FP6 framework. The project focused on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms lightning data from the ZEUS network were used together with satellite derived rainfall estimates in order to understand the storm development and electrification. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the meteorological and synoptic conditions leading up to these intense storms. As part of this project tools for short term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection were developed. The project also focused on educational outreach through our website http://flashproject.org supplying real time lightning observations, real time experimental nowcasts, forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented as the climate changes, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods. 相似文献