基于灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型的职业病预测研究

为准确预测量化我国职业病的发病趋势,在灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上结合马尔科夫过程构建灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫预测模型,探讨灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型在职业病预测领域的应用。通过平均相对误差、后验差比值、小误差概率3个指标对该组合模型的预测精度进行评估。结果表明:10维灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高,预测精度等级为一级（好）,该组合模型的预测精度优于单一的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型;在遵循新陈代谢原理的情况下,我国职业病发病呈现上升态势,2015—2018年的职业病发病例数依次为31 196,36 284,37 724,39 147例。     

Prenatal diagnosis of a left ventricular aneurysm

In a fetus with ventricular extrasystoles a congenital aneurysm of the left ventricle was diagnosed prenatally. At 32 weeks of gestation, echocardiography showed a large apical left ventricular aneurysm with a thin, hypokinetic wall. Congestive heart failure did not occur. Prenatal and postnatal examinations did not detect the aetiology of the aneurysm, but excluded the majority of possible causes. The 2-year-old child is now asymptomatic and normally developed. Neither medication nor surgical treatment have been necessary, except for antithrombotic prophylaxis with low-dose aspirin.     

热带林业实验中心森林病虫害防治对策

林病虫害已成为林业发展的一大难题,对中国林科院热带林业实验中心森林病虫害类型、危害特点等进行分析,并提出了具体有效防治措施与方法.参6.     

最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法,分析0~30d滞后影响,研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41,变化趋势整体呈现出V字型,在低温附近,温度越低,RR越高;滞后0~4d,极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著;滞后5~19d,在日均最低温度0℃附近,出现新的峰值,冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降,热效应对RR的贡献完全消失;滞后20~30d,日均最低温度为-10℃时,出现RR最小值,0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值;滞后22d时,滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下,呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性,对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长,患病风险更大.     

Disruption of iron homeostasis and resultant health effects upon exposure to various environmental pollutants: A critical review

Environmental pollution has become one of the greatest problems in the world, and the concerns about environmental pollutants released by human activities from agriculture and industrial production have been continuously increasing. Although intense efforts have been made to understand the health effects of environmental pollutants, most studies have only focused on direct toxic effects and failed to simultaneously evaluate the long-term adaptive, compensatory and secondary impacts on health. Burgeoning evidence suggests that environmental pollutants may directly or indirectly give rise to disordered element homeostasis, such as for iron. It is crucially important to maintain concerted cellular and systemic iron metabolism. Otherwise, disordered iron metabolism would lead to cytotoxicity and increased risk for various diseases, including cancers. Thus, study on the effects of environmental pollutants upon iron homeostasis is urgently needed. In this review, we recapitulate the available findings on the direct or indirect impacts of environmental pollutants, including persistent organic pollutants (POPs), heavy metals and pesticides, on iron homeostasis and associated adverse health problems. In view of the unanswered questions, more efforts are warranted to investigate the disruptive effects of environmental pollutants on iron homeostasis and consequent toxicities.     

我国秦至清末的疫病灾害研究

本文根据《中国历代天灾人祸表》中疫病的文字记载，统计出各个历史时期疫病发生时间（季节）、频数及其与旱、涝（水）、地震、战争等灾难事件的关系，进而推测历史时期疫病所包含的急性传染病。统计发生周期，证实疫病周期与太阳、太阳系活动规律有明显的相关性。     

Assessment of the Status of Urban Air pollution And Its Impact on Human Health in the City of Kolkata

Air pollution has significant effects on exacerbation of asthma, allergy and other respiratory diseases. Like many other magacities in the world the ambient air quality of Kolkata is also being deteriorated day by day. Automobile exhausts and certain industrial pollutants produce O₃ by photochemical reactions. The particulate matter, particularly less than 10 μ in size, can pass through the natural protective mechanism of human respiratory system and plays an important role in genesis and augmentation of allergic disorders. Sources of air pollution in the area and the unique problem arising out of the emission from the vehicles, industries, etc. have been described. Ambient air quality was monitored along with micrometeorological data and the results are discussed. The status of air pollution in the area has been evaluated and a questionnaire survey was conducted to estimate the allergic symptoms and exposure to assess the respiratory disorders. The data are analysed to evaluate the critical situation arising out of the emission of air pollutants and the impact on human health due to respirable diseases (RDs) to middle class sub-population (activity-wise) in the area are assessed. A strategic air quality management plan has been proposed. For the mitigation of air pollution problems in the city, the different measures to be adopted to maintain the balance between sustainable development and environmental management have been discussed.     

鲍类寄生性病害研究进展

概括近10 a来国内外鲍鱼寄生性病害的研究进展,寄生生物包括原核生物中的纤毛虫、单孢子虫、球虫、帕金虫和盘蜷虫,线形动物门中的颚口类线虫,环节动物门中的缨鳃类多毛虫和钻壳海稚虫类多毛虫,扁形动物门中的吸虫后囊蚴等,涉及寄生生物的种类分布、流行状况、组织病理学和症状及诊断和控制等,同时对我国鲍类寄生性病害研究提出展望.     

室内外空气污染对学龄儿童呼吸系统影响的研究

通过对污染区和对照区 2 0 0 0多名学龄儿童呼吸系统症状、疾病患病率比较 ,并运用非条件 Logistic回归分析方法 ,就室内外空气污染对学龄儿童呼吸系统健康的影响 ,进行了研究。结果显示 ,污染区室内外空气污染较严重 ,大气中TSP、SO2 和 NOx 的浓度均超过国家二级标准 ,其儿童呼吸系统症状、疾病患病率明显高于对照区。对儿童呼吸系统发病有显著影响的环境因素是 :大气污染、被动吸烟、家庭燃煤、冬季取暖和室内油烟污染程度。其中咳嗽与以上五个因素有显著的正相关关系 (P<0 .0 5) ;除被动吸烟外 ,支气管炎与其它四个因素呈显著正相关 (P<0 .0 5) ;咳痰与大气污染、被动吸烟、冬季取暖和室内油烟污染程度 ,气喘和呼吸系统疾病住院率与大气污染和室内油烟污染正相关关系显著 (P<0 .0 5)。哮喘与室内外空气污染无显著的统计学联系