地震断层作用下的埋地管道等效分析模型

地震作用下,活动断层附近的埋地管道易发生强度屈服、局部屈曲或整体失稳等形式的破坏,建立准确、高效的埋地管道在断层作用下的计算模型,对管道的抗震设计和震后安全状态评估具有重要的实用价值。本文采用非线性弹簧模拟远离断层处埋地管道的反应,基于管土之间小变形段管道处于强化阶段,提出一种改进的管土等效分析模型,进一步减小了管土之间大变形段的分析长度,从而提高了有限元分析效率。该模型采用ALA推荐的方法计算管土间的滑动摩擦力,可以考虑土体种类的影响;用Kennedy方法确定管道的计算长度。通过与精确模型比较,验证了管土等效模型的合理性和有效性。     

塔里木河下游输水河道二侧地下水埋深动态变化

根据2000-2003年的实地监测资料,分析了塔里木河下游生态输水过程中河道二侧地下水埋深的动态变化及其对沿岸植被的影响,提出了进一步提高塔里木河下游生态输水效益和加强区域生态环境保护工作的对策建议。     

自动扶梯运行方式对地铁站台人员安全疏散的影响

地铁车站站台人员密集,客流量大,在火灾等应急条件下对人员安全疏散有较高的要求.目前自动扶梯在地铁车站中大量应用,其运行方式(上行、下行、停运、反转)对地铁车站内人员安全疏散有较大影响.利用人员疏散网络模拟软件EVACNT7对某地铁站台层人员向站厅层疏散进行数值模拟,研究了当自动扶梯正常上行时的输送能力,并与不同人流条件下的楼梯的输送能力进行了对比,得到动态折算系数.同时也研究了当自动扶梯停运作为疏散通道使用时的输送能力,并与人流条件优化时的疏散楼梯输送能力进行了对比得到静态折算系数.还研究了下行的自动扶梯在火灾等应急条件下反转上行以降低人员疏散时间,并给出了一种下行自动扶梯反转最迟完成时间的计算方法.研究工作可以为同类地铁站台人员安全疏散设计和应急预案制定提供参考.     

大规模城际人员流动的负向效应与城市群的安全

依托移动互联网定位大数据,测度中国城际出行人员的流动特征,探讨大规模城际人员流动的"负向效应"。基于春运与平日两个时段百度迁徙数据,运用流动规模、广度两项流动性指标,使用局部空间自相关测度全国城际人员流动空间特征;借重大突发公共卫生事件,使用线性回归模型测算城际人员流动给不同类型城市、城市群带来负向效应的差异。结果发现:我国长三角、珠三角、京津冀三大城市群是流动性最强城市的高值聚集区,城市群、超大城市的超强流动性伴随着更大的负向效应风险。表现为:第一,以超大城市为中心的城市群受到城际人员流动负向效应冲击时,会产生更大的负向影响;第二,该类城市群会通过城际人员流动极大地扩散负向效应。提出城市群安全应首要保证流动性的安全,城市群安全应体现在城际流动网络的韧性上。新型城镇化进程中,推动城市群发展战略需要从国土空间安全的视角审视城市群流动性与城市群的安全。     

污水处理工程中的裂缝控制

讨论了在污水处理工程中,钢筋混凝土结构裂缝产生的原因,提出了具体的裂缝控制措施。     

Evaluating multispecies landscape connectivity in a threatened tropical mammal community

Habitat corridors are important tools for maintaining connectivity in increasingly fragmented landscapes, but generally they have been considered in single‐species approaches. Corridors intended to facilitate the movement of multiple species could increase persistence of entire communities, but at the likely cost of being less efficient for any given species than a corridor intended specifically for that species. There have been few tests of the trade‐offs between single‐ and multispecies corridor approaches. We assessed single‐species and multispecies habitat corridors for 5 threatened mammal species in tropical forests of Borneo. We generated maps of the cost of movement across the landscape for each species based on the species’ local abundance as estimated through hierarchical modeling of camera‐trap data with biophysical and anthropogenic covariates. Elevation influenced local abundance of banded civets (Hemigalus derbyanus) and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus). Increased road density was associated with lower local abundance of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) and higher local abundance of sambar deer (Rusa unicolor). Pig‐tailed macaque (Macaca nemestrina) local abundance was lower in recently logged areas. An all‐species‐combined connectivity scenario with least‐cost paths and 1 km buffers generated total movement costs that were 27% and 23% higher for banded civets and clouded leopards, respectively, than the connectivity scenarios for those species individually. A carnivore multispecies connectivity scenario, however, increased movement cost by 2% for banded civets and clouded leopards. Likewise, an herbivore multispecies scenario provided more effective connectivity than the all‐species‐combined scenario for sambar and macaques. We suggest that multispecies habitat connectivity plans be tailored to groups of ecologically similar, disturbance‐sensitive species to maximize their effectiveness. Evaluación de la Conectividad de Terrenos Multiespecie en una Comunidad Tropical de Mamíferos     

Minimum area requirements for an at‐risk butterfly based on movement and demography

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species’ traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7–1.5 ha, in accordance with trait‐based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture‐mark‐recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape‐scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation.     

大型水体下顶水安全开采的可行性研究

在大型水体下顶水采煤,一方面要确保煤矿井下安全生产,同时要保护地表水资源不被破坏。基于峰峰矿区小屯矿的地质采矿条件,在分析与评价上覆岩层结构的基础上,选取水体下11个计算特征点,探讨上覆岩层破坏高度、防水安全煤岩柱及安全煤岩柱最小富余尺寸,绘制各类等值线图。采用概率积分法,从下沉、倾斜、水平变形和裂缝深度等方面,研究分析顶水开采后水体底部所受的采动影响。结果表明,在特定的地质采矿条件下,各工作面开采以后,上覆岩层中导水裂隙带发育的最大标高与基岩顶部之间具有较厚的岩柱,导水裂隙带不会波及到地表水体,水体底部的地表移动变形较小,不会影响到矿井安全生产,在大型水体下顶水采煤是安全可行的。     

混合胁迫条件下蓝藻运动特性研究

为了探究混合控藻技术对蓝藻运动分布特性的影响,实验测定了太湖蓝藻在不同光照度、温度、压力等条件下的上浮/下沉速度.蓝藻在1 500~6 000 lx光照度范围内均表现出很强的上浮性能,光照度大于1 500 lx时,上浮速度大于0.8cm·min-1的藻颗粒占58%;当光照度小于1 500 lx或大于6 000 lx时上浮速度将减弱.在8~25℃环境下,蓝藻呈上浮运动,且随着温度的升高,上浮速度增加.在0~0.1 MPa压强条件下蓝藻上浮,且随着压强的增加上浮速度减慢;当压强达到0.2~0.3 MPa时大部分蓝藻悬浮于水中,只有少部分上浮或下沉;当压强达到0.4~0.6 MPa时,蓝藻明显下沉,且随着压强的增加下沉速度增大,0.6 MPa压强下,下沉速度大于1.0 cm·min-1的藻颗粒占52.5%.当外界压力超过藻细胞气囊所能承受的范围,气囊开始破裂,藻细胞的浮力变小直至小于其重力,导致藻颗粒下沉.常压下,藻颗粒粒径越大,上浮速度越快,密度越小;高压下,藻颗粒粒径越大,下沉速度越快,密度越大.     

海底隧道入口段驾驶员眼动特征分析*

为研究海底隧道入口段驾驶员眼动特征,以海底隧道收费站至入口为研究对象,运用Facelab5.0眼动仪和录像机等设备,采集真实状态下驾驶员眼动特征、行车速度和行车位置数据,并依据道路线形、车辆行车特征和路段标志标线设置,将收费站至入口划分为提速驶离段、换道减速段、缓和段和过渡段（入口段）,分析各区段驾驶员眼动特征及车速变化规律,并建立相应数学模型。研究结果表明:驾驶员驾车通过换道减速段和过渡段时,分别受交织车流与黑洞效应影响,行车速度减小、眼睑闭合度下降、眨眼频率增大;驾驶员行经入口段,车速呈上升-下降-上升-下降的趋势,眼睑闭合度呈增大-减小-增大-减小的趋势,眨眼频率呈减小-增大-减小-增大的趋势,且受交织车流与黑洞效应的影响显著。